Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. In today's installment, he examines three young players at the same point -- but encountering different experiences -- in their respective careers ...
When high-profile prospects enter the NFL, we quickly come to sweeping conclusions. But the rookie season is only the first chapter of a player's NFL story, and the biggest jump for many guys happens in Year 2, after they soak in lessons from the debut campaign.
With that in mind, I wanted to dig in on three notable first-rounders from the 2023 NFL Draft: The top two overall picks and the first receiver taken. One has been mired in a sophomore slump, one is experiencing a sophomore bump and one is enjoying a sophomore breakout.
Sophomore slump: What's eating C.J.?
C.J. Stroud looked like the league's next superstar in his 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year season, eclipsing 4,000 yards passing and posting a sparkling 23:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio while guiding the Houston Texans from worst to first in the AFC South and then logging a rollicking playoff win. The No. 2 overall pick appeared destined to join the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert in vying for top-five consideration at the game's most important position. Prior to this season, Stroud was viewed as an MVP candidate for a Texans squad touted as a true Super Bowl contender.
With the Texans sitting at 7-5 and Stroud looking more like a mid-range starter than the superstar the football world expected, questions persist on the second-year pro's decline in 2024. Studying the tape, Stroud remains a pinpoint pocket passer with exceptional arm talent. He can make every throw in the book with touch, timing and anticipation in every area of the field. In addition, the 23-year-old continues to flash clutch ability, having executed a pair of game-winning drives this season.
Still, despite the positives that show up on tape, the Texans' offense is clearly out of sync, and the QB1 is struggling to maintain his rhythm. Although Stroud's completion rate is similar to the one he posted in his rookie campaign (63.1%, compared to 63.9% in 2023), he has nearly doubled his interception total (nine this season), while his yards per pass attempt (7.3, down from 8.2) and passer rating (87.3, down from 100.8) have significantly declined.
Whenever a quarterback struggles, it is likely due to problems with the play caller, playmakers and/or pass protectors. "The 3 Ps," as we call them on the Move The Sticks Podcast, typically have the biggest impact on the QB's performance -- and that is indeed the case with Stroud. The Texans' schematic issues, lack of playmaker availability and poor pass protection have contributed to the young signal-caller's issues. From opponents catching up to offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's schemes to the revolving door of playmakers around Stroud to the poor play of the offensive line, the QB1's recent woes fall on the shoulders of the group.
After Stroud's stellar rookie campaign and Houston's rapid rise as a title contender, opponents spent the offseason studying the star quarterback and building game plans designed to take away his favorite concepts. With defenders paying close attention to Stroud's hot spots and pet plays, opponents have forced him out of his comfort zone and made him play on their terms. In addition, they have forced Slowik to look deeper on the call sheet to find effective plays in crucial moments.
The O-line's woes have also contributed to Stroud's regression. The Texans have surrendered nearly as many sacks in 12 games (40) as the unit gave up in the entire 2023 season (47). As a result, Stroud has been jumpy and jittery in the pocket, having taken a persistent pounding. The cumulative effect of the hits has quickened the quarterback's internal clock, leading to questionable decisions and inconsistent throws.
Last season, the Texans' playmakers made Stroud look good when he was off his game by making spectacular plays on errant throws. Led by Nico Collins and Tank Dell, the group routinely generated explosive plays on vertical throws and catch-and-run concepts in 2023, but it has been different this season. Houston added Stefon Diggs to the lineup, but the four-time Pro Bowler tore his ACL in late October. Meanwhile, Collins missed five games with a hamstring injury. These health issues -- in addition to Dell working back from his own ailments -- have prevented Stroud from developing the chemistry and connectivity needed to flourish in the passing game. With Diggs out of the lineup for the rest of the season, the Texans are operating without a flex player with the potential to play WR1, WR2 or WR3 on the perimeter.
Add in running back Joe Mixon's brief absence, and the Texans' inconsistent offensive balance has made it harder to counter the defensive tactics that have stymied one of the league's best young passers.
Though Stroud's sophomore slump is not at all cataclysmic -- after all, the Texans still sit atop the AFC South -- he needs his supporting cast to step up to help him work through the struggles and get Houston back into serious contention.
Sophomore bump: Young reborn?
Hold off on writing Bryce Young's obituary in Carolina. Last year's No. 1 overall pick is flashing some of the talent and potential that made him the overwhelming choice as the top quarterback in the 2023 draft class. The youngster's confidence is back, and he is finally performing like the franchise player the football world expected when he jumped from Alabama to the NFL.
Though it has taken Young longer than anticipated to showcase his winning ways, the naysayers prematurely poured dirt on the second-year pro without fully comprehending the challenges he needed to overcome. During his brief tenure, he has dealt with multiple head coaches and play-callers, stunting his growth as he attempts to transition from blue-chip prospect to franchise quarterback for a team lacking a winning pedigree.
With a first-time head coach and inexperienced play-caller in Dave Canales (only in his second season calling offensive plays), Young was forced to adapt to a coach attempting to figure it out on the fly. As a former Heisman Trophy winner, Young was widely viewed as a game changer with the leadership skills and moxie to reverse a franchise's fortunes, but the diminutive passer is not a transcendent player with the raw talent and physical tools to get it done as a one-man army. He has shown the skills to pick apart opponents as a rhythm passer, but he needs to be protected to showcase his prowess. Last season, he was sacked 62 times -- the second-most in the NFL, behind only Sam Howell (65) -- but the Panthers upgraded the front line, spending big bucks on guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis. These veterans have helped erect a fortress around Young, leading to more accurate throws from a passer who spent most of his rookie season under duress.
The improved protection has led to more deep shots to an emerging collection of pass catchers with speed to burn (SEE: rookies Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker). In addition, a playmaking tight end (Ja'Tavion Sanders) between the hashes has enabled Young to attack the middle of the field with greater efficiency. While the game logs do not always reflect a young passer blossoming into an assassin with the ball in his hands, the 23-year-old has won two of his last four starts (and played a very impressive game in a tight loss to the back-to-back reigning champion Chiefs), improving his performance with more reps.
Considering the Panthers are getting strong production from Chuba Hubbard as the work-horse runner of an offense utilizing a more balanced approach, Young has benefitted from operating as a manager for an offense redesigned for a young quarterback.
After breezing through high school and college without much individual adversity on the gridiron, Young's bounceback from a slow start and surprise benching has enabled him to display the grit and toughness elite quarterbacks must possess to reach the next level.
Sophomore breakout: JSN = Slot machine
Don't look now, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba is developing into the elite pass catcher some envisioned while evaluating the Ohio State product ahead of the 2023 draft. The slick route runner has torched opponents between the hashes, exhibiting exceptional discipline and timing while working the middle of the field.
Heading into Week 13, Smith-Njigba ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in receptions (66) and receiving yards (755) while leading the league in the following categories from the slot: routes run (344), targets (77), catches (53) and receiving yards (619). Most impressively, he has compiled those gaudy numbers while carving out a role on an offense that features established playmakers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the perimeter, to the point that he's pacing the team in targets (93).
Smith-Njibga was the first receiver drafted in 2023, selected 20th overall by the Seahawks. He was overshadowed by the strong rookie campaigns of Puka Nacua, Zay Flowers, Jordan Addison, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell and Josh Downs, all of whom outpaced Smith-Njigba in total receiving yards (628). Now, though, he's validating the scouting reports that touted him as a potential star.
And I have to say, his success this season has not exactly surprised me. Back in June, I spotlighted him as a breakout candidate for 2024, based on his talent and fit within new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb's scheme, which is designed to create plenty of big-play opportunities for pass catchers. The second-year pro's route-running skills expand Grubb's playbook; Smith-Njigba also serves as a trusted playmaker for Geno Smith to target on high-completion-percentage throws.
Seattle's offense incorporates a punishing running game and a big-play aerial attack that features various vertical throws to Metcalf. As defensive coordinators contemplate how to best deploy their resources in opposition, JSN has plenty of room to roam at intermediate range (10-20 yards). Moreover, he can feast off the one-on-one coverage dictated by the Seahawks' aggressive game plans.
Given Smith-Njigba's comfort in running routes from the slot in an offense that routinely targets the middle of the field, it is easy to see why Smith has consistently looked for No. 11 in crucial moments. As a talented technician with a polished game that makes him nearly impossible to defend, he looks like a burgeoning star with All-Pro upside.