First-round picks have a tight hold on the Defensive Rookie of the Year award. In fact, Shaquille Leonard (2018) and DeMeco Ryans (2006) -- both linebackers picked in Round 2 -- are the only non-first-rounders to win the award in the last 22 years. So, while history shows us it’s a daunting road to the top for players selected outside of Round 1, we can’t exclusively focus on the earliest draft picks when identifying DROY contenders.
Take last season, for example. My preseason (and postseason) pick Will Anderson Jr., a first-rounder, took home the trophy, but third-round pick Kobie Turner had an extraordinary year and finished third in the DROY voting. The Rams defensive tackle was a very deserving candidate after leading all rookies with nine sacks in 2023. With that in mind, I believe there are a couple of linebackers drafted this year in the second and third round, respectively, who could make some major noise in 2024. Before we get to them, here are a few historical notes for context:
- No safety has won this award since Mark Carrier did it for the Chicago Bears in 1990.
- The defensive tackle position has experienced a drought in this category since 2014, when Aaron Donald took home the hardware as a rookie out of Pitt.
- Three of the last five DROY winners were the first defensive player drafted that year and four of the last five winners were edge rushers, including Micah Parsons, who played a hybrid edge/linebacker role as a rookie.
Now, looking ahead to this season, here are my top 10 candidates to win the 2024 Defensive Rookie of the Year award. Well, I before I get to those rankings, let me offer up one long shot ...
DARK-HORSE CANDIDATE: Tyler Nubin, S, New York Giants. Nubin was a four-year starter at Minnesota and his tape is filled with the consistent anticipation and instincts one might expect from a player with so much experience. His recognition talent and ball skills give him a chance to make plays on the football at a high enough rate to make his way into the DROY conversation.
NOTE: The Caesars odds provided below are current as of 2:20 p.m. ET on Wednesday, July 24, unless otherwise noted.
Drafted: Round 2, No. 40 overall
The Eagles could use DeJean as a nickel or outside corner, but his best chance to shine as a rookie would likely be at safety, where we’d see his anticipation and run support on full display. As a cornerback at Iowa, DeJean grabbed seven interceptions over the last two seasons, returning three for scores. He might encounter some struggles in coverage early on, which would hurt his DROY chances, but when a play is there to be made, he usually makes it. The first matter of business for him will be coming back from a hamstring injury that landed him on the non-football-injury list to open camp.
Drafted: Round 3, No. 98 overall
I remember thinking Shaquille (formerly Darius) Leonard had a real shot as a dark-horse Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate back in 2018 because of his ability to impact games and pile up stats in so many categories. By the end of that season, Leonard was named DROY and first-team All-Pro. I’m not predicting Wilson will receive the same accolades, but the long, rangy linebacker from North Carolina State consistently produced the same type of high-impact stats in college that Leonard did at South Carolina State. While the Steelers have good depth and established veteran leadership at inside linebacker, don’t be surprised if Wilson finds his way onto the field.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 21 overall
Robinson is a raw talent, but he also offers rare explosiveness. We don’t know the exact timetable for Jaelan Phillips (torn Achilles) and Bradley Chubb (torn ACL) to return from injury -- both are on the physically unable to perform list. We do know Robinson should see plenty of reps in camp and the Dolphins might be leaning on him to open the season if Phillips and Chubb are sidelined. Robinson will need to work on his pass-rush moves, but his get-off and athleticism could make him a nightmare for tackles.
Drafted: Round 2, No. 45 overall
Don’t sleep on Cooper’s chances. His college tape had its ups and downs, but the ups were fairly spectacular. He has blazing speed and will be playing next to 2022 first-round pick Quay Walker, which should allow Cooper to play fast. He has the potential to rack up tackles and is a dangerous blitzer who posted eight sacks last season.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 24 overall
It’s always go time for the energetic and feisty Arnold. His size and speed don’t stand out, but he’s routinely around the football, attacking the throw like he has as much right to it as the wideout. If the Lions’ pass rush can create some havoc, Arnold should see his share of opportunities to make plays on the ball. He finished tied for fifth in the FBS last season with 17 passes defended.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 22 overall
Mitchell has proven he can get his hands on the football, setting a Toledo record with 46 career pass breakups, including 38 in the past two seasons. He also led his team with five interceptions (two returned for touchdowns) in 2022. Over the past six seasons, the Eagles have had only one player record more than three INTs in a single season (C.J. Gardner-Johnson posted six in 2022). Mitchell has been pegged as a press-man corner, but he will get a chance to play a variety of coverages with Philadelphia, which should create “eyes forward” opportunities that lead to more chances at interceptions.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 16 overall
It's been a decade since a defensive tackle won DROY, but Murphy might have what it takes to snap the streak. Like the last DT winner, Aaron Donald, Murphy possesses tremendous power in his upper and lower body and plays with exceptional flexibility and quickness. His ability to play in the gaps and disrupt the running game will certainly flash in Year 1, but his chances of garnering enough support from the voters to win the award rest on his ability to put eight or more sacks on the board. He has the talent to do it.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 15 overall
The biggest obstacle to Latu’s candidacy might be his playing time, considering the depth the Colts are building along the defensive front. While his snaps volume might not be what some people expect, rushers who can stack sack totals have had great success in winning DROY -- and no college player was better at finding the quarterback than Latu over the last two seasons (FBS-high 23.5 sacks). He’s strong and immensely instinctive as a rusher, and he plays with a truly relentless nature. If he can become a consistent member of sub-rush packages, his chances of winning could go way up.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 17 overall
The Vikings signed edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel this offseason, but I’m still expecting Turner to carve out a significant role. He can attack the pocket quickly with his unique blend of elite athleticism and length. If Turner can add more play strength and mass to his frame and improve the consistency of his run defense, he could end up positioning himself as the DROY front-runner.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 19 overall
Verse and the Rams feel like a match made in heaven. Despite lacking ideal size and length, Verse possesses tremendous power and explosiveness. He plays with rare leverage at the point of attack. While he needs to continue diversifying his rush attack, his burst, power and motor are ingredients that could help him pile up sacks this year. Plus, his ability to defend the run will only help his DROY case.