One year ago, Bijan Robinson, Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud headlined my preseason ranking of the top Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates, but by the end of the year, the competition had turned into a battle between a headline-grabbing quarterback (Stroud) and record-breaking fifth-round wideout in Puka Nacua.
Of course, Stroud ultimately took home the hardware and, as you would expect, quarterbacks factor prominently on my list this year, with Caleb Williams at the top and Jayden Daniels not far behind him. J.J. McCarthy and Bo Nix are in the mix, too, after finding themselves in spots with either great surrounding talent (McCarthy) or a perfect scheme to settle into (Nix).
My two highest-rated prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft were both wide receivers, so it should come as no surprise that I believe Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers have legitimate shots at securing a spot on the rookie version of the Iron Throne, as well. Before we move on to my rankings, let’s take a brief look at some historical trends.
- C.J. Stroud was the first Houston Texans player to win the OROY award in the franchise’s history.
- No tight end or offensive lineman has ever won the award, but Zack Martin finished second in 2014 with seven first-place votes.
- If first overall pick Caleb Williams wins the award this season, he would be the first OROY from USC since Marcus Allen in 1982.
Now, looking ahead to this season, here are my top 10 candidates to take home the 2024 Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Let me begin with one long shot, and check back on Wednesday to see my top 10 Defensive Rookie of the Year contenders.
DARK-HORSE CANDIDATE: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars. While Malik Nabers was the more heralded of the LSU wide receivers in this year’s draft, Thomas is the more “freakish” specimen of the two. He’s bigger, longer and faster than Nabers and plays with excellent athleticism and ball skills. The Jaguars added Gabe Davis in free agency, but Thomas is a more versatile wideout and could become a favorite of freshly paid quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
NOTE: The odds below provided by Caesars are current as of 10:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, July 23 unless otherwise noted.
Drafted: Round 2, No. 33 overall
It’s easy to love Coleman’s energy and personality. I also happen to be a big fan of his competitive spirit once the ball is in the air. There is certainly room for improvement, though. He needs to become a more polished route-runner, which will allow him to create enough window space for Josh Allen to feel comfortable targeting him consistently as a rookie. If he clicks quickly with Allen, there is an opportunity for Coleman to complement tight end Dalton Kincaid in raking in catch and touchdown production.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 9 overall
Sources from three different teams told me before the draft that Odunze was their favorite receiver in the class, citing his size, ball skills and football character. There are times where he tends to coast through downfield routes in preparation to win 50/50 balls, but he can become a plus route-runner and play at a faster pace than he showed at Washington. If Caleb Williams is as good as the Bears believe he will be, Odunze could become a red-zone monster and an eventual WR1. For this season, however, there may be too many mouths to feed in Chicago for Odunze to win the OROY award.
Drafted: Round 2, No. 34 overall
McConkey has good speed, great hands and runs routes like an NFL veteran. Don’t sleep on the rookie’s potential to lead the team in targets and catches if he earns Justin Herbert’s trust early on. I know Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston are expected to see their share of targets as the team tries to replace Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, but McConkey can line up inside or outside and can work all areas of the field. His upside is very high for a second-rounder.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 28 overall
Worthy averaged less than 14 yards per catch and finished with a modest number of receiving touchdowns (5) in 2023, but after studying his tape, it’s fairly easy to project a more explosive rookie season for him with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes at the helm of the Chiefs’ offense. Texas didn’t always take advantage of opportunities to strike deep with Worthy, but I don’t foresee that same dynamic playing out in Kansas City. He has instant gas to ravage coverage over the top and can be an electric catch-and-run option when defenses give him too much room underneath. His size (5-foot-11, 165 pounds) and issues with making contested catches are a concern, but as soon as Worthy was drafted by the Chiefs, I knew he belonged in the OROY conversation.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 12 overall
Nix showed impressive calm and exceptional accuracy on his way to 45 touchdown passes and just three interceptions in his final season at Oregon. Even before the draft, I felt like the best possible fit for Nix was probably with Sean Payton, whose offense is well-suited to Nix’s ball-control style of quarterbacking. In Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin, Nix has a couple of vertical options to go with Courtland Sutton’s potential to be a high-volume pass catcher underneath. Nix’s toughness as a runner and ability to punch in short-yardage scores also could bolster his overall production and OROY case.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 6 overall
Anytime I consider including a wide receiver on this list, I have to take a look at the pass catcher’s quarterback situation. In the Giants’ case, that position is a huge question mark entering the 2024 season. After New York decided against drafting a QB this year, the team knew it had to address the desperate need of a playmaker for Daniel Jones. Enter Nabers, who was my highest-rated prospect in the draft with his speed, athleticism and ability to create on all three levels. Jones’ most prolific season as a passer came when he threw for 24 touchdowns as a rookie. He has 38 TD passes in the four seasons since combined. Given how things have trended for Jones, I’m not feeling particularly bullish on his potential to be productive enough for Nabers to be a serious contender for this award. Then again, a strong bounce-back season for Jones could be fueled in no small way by the addition of Nabers. There is a path for him to win if everything comes together.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 10 overall
You might be wondering why McCarthy is so high on this list, considering he’s entering training camp behind Sam Darnold on the depth chart. It comes down to this for me: Darnold has yet to prove he can be a long-term QB1 in the NFL, with a TD-to-INT ratio of 27:28 dating back to the start of the 2020 season, and he might be on a relatively short leash, depending on how quickly McCarthy picks up the offense in camp. Head coach Kevin O’Connell will run a quarterback-friendly scheme featuring $140 million star WR Justin Jefferson and a highly talented supporting cast. If McCarthy can take over the starter’s role relatively early on, he could end up being very much in the race for this award.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 2 overall
When I studied the quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft, it seemed clear to me that Daniels had the best 2023 game tape of anyone in the group. He is a true dual-threat quarterback who ran for over 1,000 yards last season but also displayed the field vision and accuracy to win games with plays from the pocket. While Commanders head coach Dan Quinn has yet to name Daniels the Week 1 starter, I'll be surprised if that announcement doesn't come relatively soon. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will be working to resurrect his reputation as a quarterback whisperer with the rookie, but it’s worth noting Washington’s receiving corps won’t offer the same advantages over opponents that Daniels enjoyed from his receivers at LSU. Regardless, Daniels’ ability to create explosive plays through the air and on the ground earn him a spot near the top of my rankings.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 4 overall
While some of the players ranked lower on this list will have to fend off competition within their position groups in Year 1, that is not the case for Harrison in Arizona. He is clearly the immediate WR1, which means he should be seeing a huge chunk of targets all year long. Kyler Murray has already made it clear he believes the rookie will take Arizona’s offense “to another level.” Harrison offers the size, speed and route polish to create throwing windows and the ball skills to win contested throws. Barring injury, I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Harrison doesn’t place himself in the conversation for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Drafted: Round 1, No. 1 overall
While I’m not expecting Williams to post the same production we saw from 2023 OROY C.J. Stroud as a passer last season, GM Ryan Poles has set a nice table for the rookie QB in Year 1. He has a strong trio of receivers in Keenan Allen, DJ Moore and rookie Rome Odunze, while Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett provide him capable targets at tight end. The offensive line is the area where there is less certainty on the Bears’ offense, but I don’t foresee it being a big enough issue to keep Williams and Co. from putting points on the board at a solid rate, provided the quarterback resists the urge to try to do too much.