Week 10 NFL picks: Lions to keep rolling in Houston? Will Steelers or Commanders win fourth straight?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their NFL picks for every Week 10 game below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 7 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
3. \\ -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

SUNDAY, NOV. 10

Why Tom picked the Bears: Because while they might feel like a bottom-feeder team after a pair of psyche-sapping losses to the Commanders and Cardinals, they're about to go up against one of the NFL's actual worst-performing outfits. There are hints this first-round-QB showdown might be more evenly matched than I would have guessed a month or so ago. Caleb Williams scuffled over the past two weeks (49.2 percent completion rate, 5.4 yards per throw, zero TDs, 65.4 passer rating) against pass defenses that are in the Patriots' neighborhood, at least in terms of passer rating allowed (97.5 for New England, 96.7 for Arizona, 103.9 for Washington) and yards-per-attempt allowed (7.6 for New England and Arizona, 7.4 for Washington). Drake Maye, meanwhile, has outperformed the No. 1 overall pick in completion rate (65.6 percent to Williams' 61.4) and passer rating (85.1 to Williams' 83.0) this season. As of now, this is the last game on the schedule in which the Bears will have a clear talent advantage, with all six NFC North contests plus the 49ers and Seahawks awaiting down the stretch. Chicago's 12th-ranked defense will take care of business before hitting that gauntlet.

Why Dan picked the Bills: If the Colts don’t figure some things out offensively by Sunday, this could be their first game decided by more than one possession. The switch from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco at QB1 did not pay off in Week 9, as the offense was shut out of the end zone against the Vikings. Indianapolis has now scored one offensive touchdown in its last seven quarters. The Bills have six TDs in that time frame and are led by one of this season’s top MVP candidates. With Josh Allen on their side, this matchup just feels a little lopsided. Aside from a blowout loss to Baltimore in September, Buffalo has been a tough customer, winning by 21 points or more four times. The Colts’ defense is playing better of late, but their two wins since the calendar flipped to October came against the likes of Will Levis and Tyler Huntley/Tim Boyle. Allen is on a different planet from those guys, and Indy still has second-worst run defense in the league. Advantage Buffalo, even on the road.

Why Tom picked the Vikings: I'm not outright dismissing the Jaguars, who beat the Patriots handily in London and made the Packers and Eagles sweat in Weeks 8 and 9. I'm also not skipping over new Minnesota left tackle Cam Robinson's potentially awkward assignment against ex-teammate Josh Hines-Allen and Jacksonville's pass rush. I just can't evaluate a game involving the Vikings without trying to imagine how the opposing QB will handle Brian Flores' notoriously thorny defense, as reductive as that approach might be. The gap between Trevor Lawrence (who is unlikely to play thanks to a shoulder injury, per NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport) and backup Mac Jones might not actually look all that drastic on paper: Over their careers, the two QBs are quite close in TD rate (3.4 percent for Lawrence, 3.5 for Jones), INT rate (2.2 percent for Lawrence, 2.7 for Jones) and passer rating (85.4 for Lawrence, 85.7 for Jones), and they've both averaged 6.8 yards per throw. Jones has actually performed slightly better against the blitz, generating a 77.2 passer rating against five-plus rushers, compared to Lawrence's mark of 76.2, per Next Gen Stats. Per the ol' eye test, of course, Lawrence is far superior -- and I already was not feeling super confident in him prior to Thursday's injury news. I am, shall we say, less confident in a backup who hasn't thrown for more than 250 yards or completed more than one TD pass in a game in over a year.

Why Brooke picked the Chiefs: You hear that? That's the rest of the league groaning at the sight of the Chiefs finding their offensive groove. Kansas City's defense deserves major kudos for the team's strong start, keeping the Chiefs in close games before often watching Patrick Mahomes impose his dominance in the fourth quarter to lift K.C. to victory. But now, with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, the Chiefs truly look like a team that's built for a run at the three-peat, especially with the way that offense looked Monday night while scoring a season-high 30 points. Hopkins has changed the entire mojo of that unit and majorly influenced the production of Mahomes and Travis Kelce, the latter of whom has averaged nearly 100 receiving yards per game since Week 8. In Weeks 1-7, prior to the trade, Mahomes completed 69 percent of his passes for seven TDs with eight picks(!) and an 85.4 passer rating. In two games with Hopkins, Mahomes has completed 74.4 percent of his passes for four TDs with one pick and a 114.7 passer rating. On the other side, Broncos rookie QB Bo Nix has been pretty solid, with the exception of last week's 41-10 loss to Baltimore. That was somewhat concerning, considering Baltimore's recent defensive struggles, because now Nix will face a Chiefs D that traditionally causes fits for rookie QBs (5-2 against them with Steve Spagnuolo as DC). Bum ankle or not, Mahomes and the Chiefs are rolling and aren't likely to let down against this division "rival," as Kansas City's transcendent QB is 12-1 in his career against Denver.

Why Ali picked the Falcons: Hard to know what to expect from New Orleans this weekend after the tumultuous week(s) the franchise has endured. The Saints fired their head coach on Monday, traded their CB1 on Tuesday, will likely be without their WR1 on Sunday, haven't had their WR2 since mid-October and haven’t won a game in nearly two months. Suffice it to say, a lot has changed for this squad since it first faced its division rival in Week 4 -- a back-and-forth contest ultimately decided by a 58-yard Younghoe Koo field goal. While the Saints have been spiraling, the Falcons have been soaring, winning five of their last six to take a two-game lead in the South.

Based on what we’ve seen from both teams recently, this one could get out of hand early. Division games are weird, though, and the Saints do have a difference-maker in the backfield. But when that difference-maker is also far and away your top receiving option ... that’s a problem. If the Falcons are able to contain Alvin Kamara’s impact as a pass catcher, forcing someone else to beat them, I’m not convinced the Saints have anyone who can.

Why Brooke picked the 49ers: Ah, the week we've all been waiting for. Christian McCaffrey appears poised to make his season debut, potentially reinvigorating an up-and-down 49ers group that still ranks in the top five in total, rushing and passing offense. If anything, CMC's presence should help cut down Brock Purdy's giveaways; he has eight in the 49ers' four losses. This week feels like a solid matchup for a Niners group looking to begin the second half on a high note, as it faces the Bucs' 28th-ranked scoring and 30th-ranked total defense. I love how hard Todd Bowles' team plays. Baker Mayfield (who leads the league with 23 pass TDs), Cade Otton and the physical rushing attack deserve praise for keeping this injury-depleted offense competitive. Unfortunately, the Bucs have struggled to hold onto leads, as evidenced by their 4-5 record despite achieving an edge of seven-plus points in eight of their nine games. They've gone 2-2 in games where they've entered the fourth quarter with a touchdown-plus lead. That's a tough trend to overcome when you're at full strength, let alone without multiple top playmakers. Urgency is high for both of these teams, but San Francisco is the better side right now, especially if McCaffrey does indeed return to a full snap share.

UPDATE: McCaffrey was listed as questionable on Friday's injury report, with Kyle Shanahan saying McCaffrey will be "good to go."

Why Dan picked the Steelers: It’s not that I don’t understand the phenomenon. Jayden Daniels is great because he defies trends, achieving the kind of success rookie QBs -- heck, most QBs of any experience level -- are only supposed to be able to dream about. Yet, if ever there was a franchise to interrupt -- at least briefly -- such a wunderkind, it’s probably the six-time Super Bowl-winning Steelers, which is why I’m predicting an upset. Consider a couple things going against the Commanders here, starting with a well-rested opponent. Mike Tomlin is 13-4, including seven wins a row, coming off a bye week since he arrived in Pittsburgh. He also has the third-highest winning percentage versus rookie QBs by any head coach since 1950 (25-6) and he had his team cooking to the tune of an average margin of 16.3 points in three straight wins before the bye. Now, I won’t be surprised at all if Daniels laughs in the face of precedent and conquers the Steelers, but I’ll trust Tomlin spent the week off preparing a plan to hem Washington in like the Bears did for all but the final play a couple weeks ago.

Why Tom picked the Chargers: Last week, I underestimated the Bolts, perhaps unfairly pigeonholing them as a group of grinders with a sizzle deficiency. Then Justin Herbert kind of balled out, throwing for 282 yards on 27 attempts, or 10.4 yards per attempt -- the second-highest mark of his career -- while piloting L.A. to a season-high 27 points against the hapless Browns. OK, so that YPA figure was juiced by some big TD passes on blown coverages by Cleveland. Even so, the aerial component of the Chargers' offense seems to have reached a higher gear in recent weeks, with the team cracking 200 passing yards in four straight games after failing to do so once in Weeks 1-4. Herbert and Co. will definitely keep the pressure on the Titans' defense, which ranks first overall but also coughed up 389 yards to Josh Allen and the Bills in Week 7. There's a world in which Tennessee could be the kind of unglamorous winner I accused the Chargers of being, but it's probably not one where Will Levis -- or Mason Rudolph, really -- are at QB.

Why Ali picked the Cardinals: Are there two more enigmatic teams in the NFL right now? Honestly, no outcome in this game would surprise me. Have the Jets finally figured it out after beating the Texans in prime time? Or was last week an illusion, with Gang Green’s true form still more closely resembling the squad that lost five straight, including at New England? Are the NFC West-leading Cardinals legit contenders? Or have they benefited recently from catching the right opponent at the right time?

Full of questions ... short on answers. As I like to do in these toss-up scenarios, I consulted the NFL Pro matchup preview. Interesting, if not wholly surprising, the Next Gen data shows the Jets with a decisive passing edge and the Cardinals a clear rushing advantage. But what I found most illuminating from the head-to-head comparison was the distinct difference in discipline. The Cardinals are tied with the Bengals for the fewest penalties in the league (41) while the Jets rank 31st (72). In a game that could break either way, between two imperfect clubs, I’ll go with the operation that’s cleaner and less likely to lose because of self-inflicted errors.

Why Brooke picked the Eagles: These division rivals are trending in opposite directions. On one hand, the Eagles are making sweet music offensively and have been since Week 6. Jalen Hurts is tied for the NFL lead with 12 offensive TDs (zero giveaways) in that span, cooking with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on the regular, and Saquon Barkley is over here jumping backward over people. Even if Philly is without Brown (knee), the Dallas defense hasn't shown it can stop much of anything in recent weeks. Getting Micah Parsons back would certainly help a unit with the worst red zone defense and second-worst scoring defense. That's not the worst part, though, as suddenly the offense is without Dak Prescott, whose hamstring injury will force him to miss several weeks. Backup Cooper Rush spearheaded some excitement in relief a few years back, but this is not those Cowboys. These 'Boys are without a reliable run game and feature a one-stop shop in the pass game with CeeDee Lamb, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. Not great for a team that still hasn't won at home (0-3) this season. You know the saying: When it rains, it pours.

Why Gennaro picked the Lions: Boasting six straight wins, including four on the road and four by double digits, Detroit currently looks like the best team in football. Our resident Power Ranker, Eric Edholm, supports that notion. The Lions' defense has shown significant improvement this fall -- admirably weathering a devastating Week 5 injury to Aidan Hutchinson thus far -- but offense is this team's forte. Meanwhile, Houston rose to prominence last season behind wunderkind quarterback C.J. Stroud, but in 2024, the Texans actually have been led by their stout defense.

So, which side has the upper hand in this strength-on-strength matchup? The unit with all the answers right now: Detroit’s top-ranked scoring offense.

Jared Goff’s in the midst of the biggest heater of his career, as reflected by this juicy tidbit from NFL Research: The Lions have more offensive touchdowns (26) than incomplete passes (24) since Week 3. Speaking of Week 3, that was the last time Amon-Ra St. Brown didn’t catch a ball thrown his way; Goff has connected with his top receiver on an astounding 30 straight targets. Now, Houston’s pass defense is indeed stifling: Next Gen Stats has the Texans yielding the fewest yards per pass play (4.9) while racking up the most pressures (137). The status of Will Anderson Jr.’s injured ankle looms large, but Houston can defend an air attack. Can the Texans also stop the NFL’s best backfield duo? That’s where I ultimately see Detroit controlling this game, with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs mixing body blows with haymakers in this Sunday night fight.

UPDATE: Anderson was listed as out by the Texans on Friday's injury report.

MONDAY, NOV. 11

Why Ali picked the Rams: The Dolphins are humming on offense once again with Tua Tagovailoa at the helm, scoring 27 points in back-to-back weeks after averaging a league-worst 10 points during the QB’s four-game absence. In the Rams, they’ll face a team also rounding into form thanks to the return of key contributors. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua continue to be absolute game-wreckers, capable of putting opposing defenses in a bind with their route-running, consistency and physicality in the run game. That duo being healthy, and this game requiring a cross-country trek for Miami, already had me leaning toward Sean McVay’s crew. But what makes me the most confident in the Rams’ chances Monday night is the way their defense has been playing. Fueled by a rapidly improving group of rookies -- including Jared Verse, Braden Fiske and Jaylen McCollough -- L.A. leads the league in takeaways (seven), pressure percentage (47.9%) and sacks (12, tied with Cleveland) since the start of their three-game win streak. If any passer is able to mitigate the Rams’ newfound pass rush, it’s Tua, who leads the league in quick-throw rate. But I’m counting on these young playmakers to do just enough to disrupt his timing, stealing a few extra possessions along the way for Matthew Stafford and Co. to capitalize on.

GERMANY GAME

Why Dan picked the Giants: What happens when the worst scoring offense in the league plays the worst scoring defense? We’ll get an answer to that burning question when the Giants (15.4 points per game) and Panthers (32.6 points allowed per game) meet in Germany on Sunday, but the better defense -- which belongs to the G-Men, in this case -- has fared well in 12 such matchups since 2000, going 8-4, per NFL Research. I’m going to ride that trend. Carolina won last week, ending Dennis Allen’s coaching career in New Orleans, but the alarm bells should still be ringing loudly for Dave Canales. His team was outgained by nearly 200 yards, lost the turnover battle and is on pace to allow the third-most PPG in the Super Bowl era. Scoring could come at a premium for both teams on Sunday, but Bryce Young is far more likely than Daniel Jones to find himself out of his comfort zone. Dexter Lawrence and Brian Burns (revenge game!) fuel a Giants defense that leads the league in sacks (35), while the Panthers rank last in QB pressure rate (26.9%).

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Brooke picked the Bengals: Oh, baby! We're kicking off the second half of the NFL season with a banger. When these teams last met in Week 5, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow combined for nine touchdown passes with the Ravens winning 41-38 in overtime. Heck, the two QBs combined for eight TDs last Sunday, with each of their respective teams scoring 41 points in a blowout victory. The urgency is high in Cincinnati, and despite Burrow's mood, the offense should feel good about where it's at. He ranks in the top five in most passing categories, his healthy playmakers are stepping up in big spots (especially needed with Tee Higgins likely out again and Erick All out for the year), and the run game just got more help with the Khalil Herbert trade. Baltimore also ranks dead last in pass defense, so scoring shouldn't be the issue for Cincy in this one. The issue will be stopping an equally dangerous Baltimore offense, led by a leading MVP candidate at quarterback and a 30-year-old running back, Derrick Henry, who looks spry as ever. That pair is a huge reason why the Ravens rank No. 1 in offensive yards and are one of two teams averaging more than 30 points per game at the halfway point. That said, Lou Anarumo's defense is certainly playing better now than it was in the first meeting of the season.

• Weeks 1-5: 29 PPG allowed, 151.4 rush YPG allowed, 10 pass TDs allowed, six sacks.
• Since Week 6: 20.5 PPG allowed, 104.3 rush YPG allowed, 3 pass TDs allowed, 11 sacks.

The unit must be at least that good to stall two of the best offensive players on the planet. Especially on the road, where the Bengals have won three straight (albeit over far lesser opponents). I see this contest being close, per usual, and I'm leaning Cincy, thanks to that improved D.

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