Week 12 NFL picks: 49ers or Packers at Lambeau Field? Ravens or Chargers in Monday's Harbowl?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their NFL picks for every Week 12 game below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 21 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
3. \\ -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

THURSDAY, NOV. 21

Why Tom picked the Steelers: Last week, I laid out some of the ways they could beat the Ravens, then picked against them -- a choice I began to regret less than a minute into that AFC North showdown, when Nick Herbig ripped the football away from Derrick Henry as if he was personally out to disprove my theory that Henry would power Baltimore to a win. I'm smarter now, having relearned for the umpteenth time to not go against Mike Tomlin when he's got an obvious path to victory. So, yes, I could prattle on about potentially messy weather leveling the playing field a little between Pittsburgh and Cleveland, especially just a few days after the Steelers fought a close, highly charged battle. I could ruminate on the Browns making this rivalry almost even-handed in recent seasons (they are 4-5 against Pittsburgh since 2020, including playoffs). But if the evening devolves into a precipitation-driven toss-up, I feel quite comfortable backing the well-rounded team coached by Tomlin, who has a career regular-season winning percentage of .671 (23-11-1) in games that featured rain or snow at kickoff, per TruMedia. And this 2-8 Cleveland squad is a universe apart from the scrappier group that squeaked out a 13-10 win the last time these teams faced off, in Week 11 of last season. Pittsburgh is too sturdy to be slowed by any chaos that might arise Thursday.

SUNDAY, NOV. 24

Why Ali picked the Chiefs: I spent a lot of time earlier this week pumping up the Panthers’ slim-but-resurgent playoff chances only to come here and crush those fleeting hopes. But picking winners is a cutthroat business, and unbridled optimism usually leads to trouble in this space. For Carolina to pull off the biggest upset to date this season, Bryce Young will have to play the best game of his football career. Whatever offensive success the Panthers have mustered this year has been built on the back of, well, their primary back, with Chuba Hubbard enjoying a breakout campaign. That recipe, even if it now includes rookie RB Jonathon Brooks, likely won’t work against the Chiefs’ dominant run defense, which ranks top five by most standard and advanced metrics. Hence, the need for Young to take the next (giant) step in his pro development on Sunday. Carolina is also catching Kansas City at one of the worst times (not that there’s ever a good time to face Patrick Mahomes), with the Chiefs coming off their first loss. Mahomes has the best win percentage in games following a loss (.818, 18-4) of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era. He’s also a wildly efficient 35-6 in his career versus teams with a losing record, including a pristine 13-0 against those that are at least four games under .500. Oh, and he’s yet to lose to an NFC South squad (8-0). It is not hyperbole to say a Panthers win this weekend would be historic.

Why Dan picked the Vikings: Now 1-7 in November home games since 2020, Chicago could use a win in the worst way. There are scenarios in which it gets one, but if Sam Darnold takes care of the ball -- far from a guarantee for the guy who leads the league in giveaways -- it’s hard to imagine Matt Eberflus getting to breathe a sigh of relief when he drives home on Sunday. His Bears are about to run into a defense that is exactly what they don’t need right now. Vikings DC Brian Flores leads the league’s top defense in DVOA. He’s 7-1 as a head coach and coordinator against rookie QB1s. His defenses limited teams to 15.5 points per game in those matchups, averaging more than one takeaway and nearly four sacks per contest. Minnesota blitzes at the second-highest rate in the league, and while Caleb Williams has been a bit better against extra rushers in recent weeks, it’s certainly not a strong suit. He called Flores the “king of the Cover 0 blitz” for a reason. By the end of this game against the Vikes, I expect the first-year QB to be crowning ‘em.

Why Gennaro picked the Texans: How did Nico Collins’ highly anticipated return go this past Monday night? Well, on the first play from scrimmage, the Texans receiver promptly took a screen pass 77 yards to the house ... but the score was erased by a penalty. On Houston’s second drive of the game, C.J. Stroud attempted to throw a second pass in Collins’ direction ... but instead committed his 10th turnover of the season, already eclipsing his 15-game total of nine giveaways in a transcendent rookie campaign.

So, no, Nico didn’t immediately cure everything that ails Houston’s offense. That said, the potent playmaker eventually did settle in and provide four catches for 54 yards in the Texans’ 34-10 road win over the moribund Cowboys. Collins, who comfortably led the NFL in receiving yards when he strained his hamstring on a 67-yard touchdown back in Week 5, looked like a player getting reacclimated with live action during his 30 snaps in Dallas. The harmonious relationship he forged with Stroud last year (and early this season) just felt a beat off. Will these two get fully back in sync this Sunday?

Tennessee’s pass D isn’t bad this season. In fact, the Titans are giving up the fewest passing yards per game (164.6), though the advanced statistics are less bullish on their air defense. And with physical cover man L’Jarius Sneed (quad) sidelined for a sixth straight game, I think Stroud feeds his big-bodied beast to greater effect this time out. Bad injury luck and worse O-line play have prevented Houston’s offense from meeting lofty preseason expectations, but when this pitch-and-catch combo’s clicking, it can paper over a lot of problems.

Why Brooke picked the Lions: Anthony Richardson looked vastly better last week in his return as the Colts' QB1, posting a career high in pass yards and orchestrating a game-winning drive. It was a step in the right direction, but it was also against a reeling Jets squad. The Lions are a different story altogether. Detroit's defense ranks fifth in scoring and against the run (Indy's strength with Jonathan Taylor and Richardson), and suffocates quarterbacks in man coverage. The Lions play man at the highest rate of dropbacks (47.1%) in the league and have allowed a 54.8 passer rating (lowest in the NFL by 14.0 points) while registering eight INTs on such plays, per Next Gen Stats. Richardson's stat line vs. man this season: 40.4 completion percentage, 325 pass yards, three TDs and two INTs. What's interesting is MVP candidate Jared Goff will face a defense that plays zone coverage at the highest rate (85.6%) in the league, and all nine of his interceptions have come against zone this season. The Lions haven't been perfect, and the fact that their defensive injuries are adding up -- notably, losing Alex Anzalone for at least six weeks -- is worrisome. But the biggest difference between Detroit and Indianapolis is that the former's offense is a true juggernaut in every sense of the word and can overcome even the most dire situations (See: Goff's five INTs in the win over Houston). Indy's not yet there.

Why Tom picked the Dolphins: In Week 5, Tyler Huntley and Miami beat Jacoby Brissett and New England, 15-10. Since then, both teams have essentially restarted their seasons. Taking over at QB the next week, Drake Maye proceeded to drag the Patriots' offense from the bottom of the league (the unit ranked 31st in yards per game between Weeks 1 and 5) to the neighborhood of respectability (it jumped to 24th between Weeks 6 and 11). And since Tua Tagovailoa returned from a concussion in Week 8, the Dolphins have paced the NFL in total passing EPA, per Next Gen Stats. One thing that hasn't changed since much is Miami's defense, which ranked in the top 10 in yards allowed after that October barnburner and remains there today. Maye has made New England spicy, but I don't know if he'll be able to manage enough against that D to keep up with Tua and Co. The short, quick passing game has been key to the Dolphins' offense since Mike McDaniel took over, and they've been thriving at it again with Tagovailoa back at the wheel, ranking second in the NFL in passing EPA on throws made in 2.5 second or less with a depth of 9 air yards or less over the past four weeks. That could spell trouble for the Patriots, who are allowing a passer rating of 101.2 -- ninth-highest in the NFL -- on such throws this season.

Why Gennaro picked the Buccaneers: Who’s ready for the return of Tommy Cutlets?! Apparently not Dexter Lawrence, who still feels Daniel Jones is “the best quarterback on the team” despite his benching. OK, in fairness, the Giants’ star defensive tackle is riding for his guy.

"That's my best friend," Lawrence said to The Athletic’s Charlotte Carroll, later adding: "That's my boy. As a player, you got to keep playing. As a human and as a brother, I feel for him. "

That makes sense. But how about the actual move to Tommy DeVito?

During last week’s bye, prior to the announcement of a QB switch, Giants GM Joe Schoen attempted to allay outside speculation that Jones’ $23 million injury guarantee for 2025 would ultimately lead to his benching in 2024: “The decisions we make will be football decisions.” When the decision dropped Monday, it came with the added surprise that DeVito would be taking the reins. What happened to $5 million backup Drew Lock?

“That’s a question I might still have for myself,” Lock admitted at his locker on Wednesday, uncomfortably smiling as he called it an “interesting situation.”

Interesting indeed. Questions abound, but in this space, only one matters: Will DeVito provide a spark? He did last season, winning three straight games at one point, but the magic eventually faded. And this time around, it sure doesn’t seem like a locker room in lockstep.

Frankly, I’m more moved by the potential return of a different player in this game: Buccaneers WR Mike Evans. And I’m more confident backing a swashbuckling Baker Mayfield than a reanimated cult hero.

Why Dan picked the Commanders: After limping into Week 11 badly injured and desperate for a win, the Cowboys enter Week 12 with even more injury concerns as they flail through their longest losing streak in nearly a decade. Dallas could be playing on Sunday without its QB1, TE1 and multiple starting offensive linemen. This, for a team that didn’t have much of a margin for error even when its offense was almost fully healthy. I know the Commanders have hit a wall in the last couple weeks, blowing fourth-quarter leads against the Steelers and Eagles, but those are division-leading teams. There may not be a better squad to get right against than the Cowboys in their current state. This should be a game where Kliff Kingsbury is able to take pressure off rookie QB Jayden Daniels’ shoulders and get back to moving the ball on the ground against a team ranked second to last in run defense. Washington should be hitting the panic button if it can’t put this one away.

Why Ali picked the Broncos: When these two teams met in Week 5, the Raiders scored on their first two tries before taking their third possession down to the Broncos’ 5-yard line. Vegas was on the verge of posting a double-digit lead when a devastating red-zone decision by Gardner Minshew turned into a Pat Surtain II 100-yard pick-six. Minshew was benched shortly thereafter and Vegas ended up losing by 16 points. That single play turned the course of the game, and, arguably, the Raiders’ 2024 season, as it launched a stretch of six consecutive losses -- a streak they carry into the rematch.

Denver’s season has gone markedly different since that fateful afternoon. Bo Nix has become a legit contender for Offensive Rookie of the Year, the defense has settled in as one of the league’s most consistently stingy and the team overall has played its way into the AFC’s seventh seed. Although the Broncos have gone just 3-3 during that span, the three losses have (mainly) been competitive and come at the hands of other AFC powerhouses (Chargers, Ravens, Chiefs). Their wins, meanwhile, have been blowouts of suspect NFC South teams (Saints, Panthers, Falcons). The Raiders, at 2-8, fall more into the latter category. While they are coming off the bye, and this game is in Las Vegas (Nix has struggled on the road), the Raiders are at a disadvantage in so many areas of this matchup -- chief among them, their inability to rush the passer (29.7% pressure rate). Nix is 6-0 in games in which he’s been pressured on less than 30 percent of dropbacks, and 0-5 when that rate rises above that threshold, per NFL Research. Brock Bowers is unquestionably one of Vegas’ few advantages, though. His special ability to move the chains (fifth-most receiving first downs this year) could give Maxx Crosby and Co. enough sideline time to hang for 60 minutes. But this division game is just too important to Denver’s season for Sean Payton not to take every opportunity to win and win convincingly.

Why Brooke picked the Packers: For these offenses, it's like looking in a mirror. Both the 49ers (second) and Packers (fourth) rank in the top four in total offense but bottom seven in red zone touchdown percentage (both sub-50). San Francisco has scored 23 or fewer points in three of its last four games, while Green Bay has put up 20 or fewer points in consecutive contests. These units have struggled, though I also realize each has the goods to take off at any moment (but when?!). Jordan Love, who has thrown just one TD pass over his last three games, has a talented supporting cast, but his tendency to turn the ball over (his 11 INTs are tied for the most in the NFL) and crumble under pressure are major concerns. That said, Nick Bosa's status (oblique) could determine Sunday's victor, considering all that he's done for San Francisco's defensive front in 2024. He leads the team with seven sacks and 49 pressures (fifth in the NFL), and the 49ers have generated 10 percent less pressure when he's off the field this season, per Next Gen Stats. The Niners got punched in the mouth without Bosa late in last week's loss, allowing two Seattle second-half TD drives. That Love has a league-worst 41.7 passer rating under pressure further emphasizes the critical aspect of Bosa's availability. And, if Bosa does play, how limited might he be? Even with Christian McCaffrey steadily ramping back up and George Kittle returning after missing a week, a limited or absent Bosa feels awfully seismic on the road against Matt LaFleur and a QB who thrives with time to work comfortably in the pocket.

Why Gennaro picked the Cardinals: Fresh off the bye, sitting alone atop the NFC West and riding a four-game win streak, the Cardinals are poised to storm Seattle and do what they do best: pound the rock.

The Seahawks’ run defense came apart in the final two seasons of the Pete Carroll regime, and first-year head coach Mike Macdonald has been trying his darndest to put it back together, recently swapping out starting linebackers via trade and surprising release. It’s a work in progress, which is troubling versus this rising Arizona team.

James Conner remains one of the NFL’s more underappreciated players. The Cardinals’ tone-setting back leads the league with 68 forced missed tackles, per Next Gen Stats, giving Arizona the kind of meat-and-potatoes ground game that plays in 2024. Add in a touch of emerging rookie runner Trey Benson and a dash of Kyler Murray’s 8.1 yards per carry, and you have a recipe for success in Seattle.

Why Dan picked the Eagles: Spicy matchup alert! These squads are a combined 10-1 since Week 6, with the Rams turning their season around thanks in part to better health at wide receiver. After their own shaky start, the Eagles have dominated since their bye week with an old-school combination of power running and stout defense. What’s going to give here? Like I did last week, I’m going to put my trust in Philly DC Vic Fangio. The Rams stumbled at home in prime time to a far less imposing team (the Dolphins, whom Fangio worked for last year) just two weeks ago. Now they must deal with the top-ranked run defense since Week 6 and the league’s stingiest unit in yards allowed per game. Trying to keep Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in check will be the toughest test yet for the Eagles’ rookie corners, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, but they have risen to the occasion so far. The Rams don’t go down without a fight, but one team feels more complete than the other here.

MONDAY, NOV. 25

Why Brooke picked the Ravens: Who could've predicted way back in May when the schedule was released that this prime-time Harbaugh Bowl would showcase a pair of very relevant, seven-win teams? We all hoped for this type of high-stakes matchup, but as we know, we don't always get nice things. Headlining this game on the actual field of play: MVP candidates Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert. The two-time winner of that award is coming off his worst game of the season, but Lamar still leads the league with 314.6 offensive yards per game and a 117.3 passer rating. He's also thrown 25 TDs against just three picks. That's the second-best TD-to-INT ratio in the league this year, behind only ... his quarterbacking counterpart in this game! Herbert might not have Jackson's flashiness or gaudy counting numbers, but he's been equally good this season, especially during the team's four-game win streak. Since Week 8, Herbert has thrown seven TDs with zero INTs and a 111.3 passer rating (both tops in the league in that span). He's also benefitted from the support of the Chargers' stingy defense, which ranks No. 1 in scoring (14.5 points per game) and second on third down (32.3 conversion rate allowed) and in the red zone (40.9 TD percentage allowed). And unlike Lamar, Herbert will face a defense that has really struggled at times and has allowed the most pass yards (284.5 yards per game) and the second-most pass TDs (22, tied). All this points in the Chargers' direction. However, they are 6-0 this season against teams currently below .500 and just 1-3 vs. teams at .500 or better. In this game, all three phases are going to be crucial -- looking at you, Justin Tucker -- and while the Ravens might have a slightly steeper hill to climb on paper, their X-factor quarterback has more experience in big games. My jury's still out on Beast Herbert.

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