Titans at Colts (at 1pm ET)
Start: RB Derrick Henry; RB Jonathan Williams; TE Jack Doyle
Stream: QB Ryan Tannehill
Sit: QB Jacoby Brissett; WR Corey Davis; WR A.J. Brown
Injuries to monitor: WR T.Y. Hilton (calf)
Key Game Facts
-- Jonathan Williams played on 67 percent of Colts snaps in Week 12
-- Nyheim Hines was in on 33 percent of plays while Jordan Wilkins played just one snap last week
-- Jacoby Brissett averages 4.5 fewer fantasy points per game when T.Y. Hilton has not played this season
When the Titans have the ball: Fresh off eviscerating the Chiefs in Week 10 (191 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs) and Jaguars in Week 12 (175 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs), Derrick Henry is still a no-brainer RB1 in a significantly tougher road matchup against the Colts. Indianapolis has played stout run defense over the last two months -- they're allowing the 5th-fewest yards per carry and 3rd-lowest rushing success rate in this span -- but Henry's volume and talent can't be denied. With top-15 weekly fantasy results in all five starts and top-10 finishes in four-straight, Ryan Tannehill deserves way more attention as a great fantasy streamer. Not only is Tannehill throwing well and moving the Titans offense efficiently, but he also keeps adding to his fantasy value with his scrambling ability. Tannehill has rushed 14 times for 115 yards and 3 scores over his last three games and while we can't count on rushing touchdowns every week, Tannehill's sneaky ability to extend plays with his legs will continue to help his floor and ceiling. A.J. Brown keeps showing how talented he is when he gets the opportunity -- all 4 of his receptions gained 15+ yards last week -- but target volume remains a concern for both Brown and Corey Davis in fantasy football. Brown has seen five or fewer targets in 9-of-11 games this season while Davis has seen 5 or fewer looks in 7-of-10.
When the Colts have the ball:Jonathan Williams immediately took over as the Colts bell-cow back last week in place of Marlon Mack (broken hand), turning his monster 29 touches into 121 scrimmage yards and a score. I'd be shocked if Williams nears 30 touches again in Week 13, but he's a locked-in RB2 on volume alone. With T.Y. Hilton out, Jacoby Brissett is tough to trust in fantasy football. Now, the Colts will be forced to rely even more heavily on Jack Doyle this week. Eric Ebron was placed on injured reserve after Week 12, bringing Doyle into the fray as a fantasy TE1 for the remainder of the season. The Colts are one of the most tight end-friendly offenses in the league, as their combined unit ranks 6th in fantasy points and 4th in targets. I'd only play Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz, George Kittle, Hunter Henry, Darren Waller, or Mark Andrews over Doyle this weekend.
Jets at Bengals (at 1pm ET)
Must Play: RB Le'Veon Bell
Start: RB Joe Mixon; WR Tyler Boyd; WR Jamison Crowder; TE Ryan Griffin
Stream: QB Sam Darnold
Key Game Facts
-- The Bengals have allowed the third-most fantasy points to slot receivers over the last eight weeks
-- Jamison Crowder has run 74 percent of his routes from the slot this season
-- The Bengals are also really struggling against tight ends, allowing over 20 fantasy points per game to the position over the last month
When the Jets have the ball: 2019 has been a slog for Le'Veon Bell, but he has a great chance to finally hit his ceiling in Week 13. The Bengals have allowed a top-24 (RB2 or better) fantasy scorer in 10-of-11 contests this year while only Jacksonville (136.6) has allowed more rushing yards per game over the last two months than Cincinnati (119.0). Bell is averaging 21.1 touches per game over the Jets last four contests and seems overdue for a massive game. This could certainly be the spot. Sam Darnold has been heating up in fantasy football with three-straight top-12 (QB1) finishes and he's a low-end QB1 play against this Bengals defense that has permitted the 3rd-most fantasy points to the position. Both Jamison Crowder and Ryan Griffin have operated as Darnold's preferred targets over the last month and both are strong starts in this primo matchup. If you're truly desperate in deep leagues, Robby Anderson and Demaryius Thomas are in play as dart throws against the league's worst defense.
When the Bengals have the ball: Well, the Bengals have already seen enough of Ryan Finley. HC Zac Taylor said he's going back to Andy Dalton in Week 13 which, theoretically, boosts Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd's fantasy outlook. New York has the best run defense in the league, but volume alone keeps Joe Mixon on the RB2 radar. Mixon has seen at least 16 touches in four-straight games and his two highest single-game snap rates this season have come in his last 3 contests. Dalton's return helps Tyler Boyd immensely, though. Boyd was averaging a monster 10.3 targets per game before Dalton was benched after the bye and we can go back to Boyd as a low-end WR2 against a Jets secondary that has allowed the 6th-most fantasy points to wideouts since Week 8.
Redskins at Panthers (at 1pm ET)
Must Play: RB Christian McCaffrey
Start: WR D.J. Moore; TE Greg Olsen
Beware: WR Terry McLaurin
Sit: Redskins RBs; WR Curtis Samuel
Injuries to monitor: RB Chris Thompson (toe)
Key Game Facts
-- Washington's RB snap split over the last 2 weeks: Guice (44), Smallwood (44), Peterson (37)
-- Peterson has 19 carries to Guice's 17 in this span
-- Terry McLaurin saw a season-high 12 targets last week (41 percent share) last week, but only half of his targets were deemed catchable, per PFF
When the Redskins have the ball: It's the final week of the fantasy football regular season and there isn't a single player on Washington's side we can feel comfortable starting in lineups. Terry McLaurin got open often against Darius Slay last week and earned a season-high 12 targets, but Dwayne Haskins continued to be scatter-shot with his accuracy and missed McLaurin on two no-doubt TDs. McLaurin is already one of the best route runners in the league, but Haskins' inability to get him the ball renders him a WR3 only start in 12-team leagues for Week 13. Meanwhile, the Redskins backfield has been a full-blown timeshare with Derrius Guice back healthy. Guice's snaps increased from 31 percent in Week 11 to 43 percent in Week 12, but Adrian Peterson's involvement and Chris Thompson's return from injury will continue to hold Guice back from breaking out. The Panthers run defense is suspect but trusting a committee backfield on a bad offense is a headache you want to avoid.
When the Panthers have the ball: Carolina continues to be one of the most straight-forward teams to break down for fantasy every week. With 90 or more yards in four-straight games, D.J. Moore has earned must-start consideration along with Christian McCaffrey here while Greg Olsen remains a low-end TE1 at the grossest position in fantasy. Target volume simply hasn't been there for Curtis Samuel recently -- Moore has out-targeted him 45 to 25 over the last month -- but Samuel's talent continues to shine when he actually gets decent looks. Samuel is an excellent buy-low in dynasty/keeper leagues, but he has been held under 60 yards in 8-of-11 games this season since Kyle Allen only has eyes for Moore.
Buccaneers at Jaguars (at 1pm ET)
Must Play: WR Mike Evans; WR Chris Godwin; WR D.J. Chark
Start: QB Jameis Winston; RB Leonard Fournette
High upside FLEX: RB Ronald Jones
Stream: QB Nick Foles
Sleeper: WR Dede Westbrook; WR Chris Conley
Key Game Facts
-- No team is allowing more PPR fantasy points to receivers aligned out wide than the Buccaneers
-- D.J. Chark has seen 24 percent of Nick Foles' targets this season with Leonard Fournette (21 percent), Chris Conley (19 percent), and Dede Westbrook (15 percent) trailing behind
When the Buccaneers have the ball: Play all of your Bucs' in fantasy this week! Jacksonville offers a middling matchup through the air these days as they have permitted at least one top-20 fantasy performance to a receiver in five of their last 6 games. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are must-plays in the final week of the fantasy regular season and, even though it isn't pretty at times, Jameis Winston remains a strong QB1 in this spot. Winston has finished as a top-12 (QB1) performer in four of his last 5 games with over 300 yards in every contest in this span. Even though Peyton Barber and Dare Ogunbowale remained heavily involved in the offense, Ronald Jones has a mouth-watering ceiling in Week 13 against a Jags' run defense that has allowed a league-high 6.4 yards per carry and 136.6 yards per game over the last two months. After getting just six touches on a lowly 30 percent snap rate in Week 11, Jones' role was restored last week (15 touches on 50 percent of Bucs' snaps).
When the Jaguars have the ball: Like we discussed in this space last week, Leonard Fournette was overdue for a touchdown and he ended up getting in the box twice against the Titans in his best game of the season. Tampa Bay's run defense is tough, but Fournette just got 24 carries, 12 targets, and played on 95 percent of snaps in a game where Jacksonville lost by over 20 points. Fournette's usage is bankable every single week. The Buccaneers pass defense is also predictable every single week (just bad), which makes Nick Foles an intriguing streamer for Week 13. Over the last two months, Tampa Bay has surrendered the 3rd-worst passer rating (107.3) and they've allowed the 3rd-most fantasy points per pass attempt. Even though D.J. Chark disappointed against Tennessee (5/38 receiving), he should immediately be re-inserted as a WR1 in the easiest matchup he'll see all season. While this is a layup bounce-back spot for Chark, both Chris Conley and Dede Westbrook should also have plenty of opportunities to feast against this Bucs' secondary that is allowing a mind-boggling 50.7 fantasy points to wideouts. Westbrook and Conley are cheap value plays for DFS tournaments this week, too.
Browns at Steelers (at 1pm ET)
Start: RB Nick Chubb; WR Odell Beckham; WR Jarvis Landry
PPR FLEX: RB Kareem Hunt
Beware: Steelers RBs
Sit: QB Baker Mayfield; TE Vance McDonald; WR Diontae Johnson; WR James Washington
Injuries to monitor: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee); RB James Conner (shoulder); TE David Njoku (wrist)
Key Game Facts
When the Browns have the ball: After predictably stomping the Dolphins "defense" last week, Cleveland is in a far tougher matchup on the road in Pittsburgh for Week 13. Baker Mayfield has finally started to heat up with 17 or more fantasy points in five of his last six games, but I'd stream Nick Foles, Ryan Tannehill and Sam Darnold over him this week in this brutal draw. Pittsburgh can certainly slow down Cleveland's pass offense this week, but the Browns concentrated pass volume keeps Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry in play as strong WR2 starts. Over their last six games, Beckham and Landry have combined to see 52 percent of Mayfield's targets and an absurd 70 percent of the team's air yards. Since Kareem Hunt came back from suspension in Week 10, Nick Chubb has remained the Browns clear lead back with 22, 27, and 24 touches over his last three games. While Chubb remains an RB1 for fantasy, Kareem Hunt has touch counts of 11, 12, and 10 in his first 3 games this season and is FLEX start in PPR leagues because of his involvement in the passing game.
When the Steelers have the ball: HC Mike Tomlin is tired of Mason Rudolph "killing" their offense, so he made the change to No. 3 QB Devlin Hodges as the starter this week. With Hodges under center and both JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner looking like they are on the wrong side of the questionable tag for Week 13, the Steelers entire offense is very thin for lineup decisions. Even if JuJu gets cleared to play, there is no way you can trust any Pittsburgh pass catcher with Hodges at the controls. Plus, the Steelers backfield just turned into a quagmire last week. Instead of giving Jaylen Samuels the bulk of the work with Conner out in Week 12, the Steelers promoted rookie Benny Snell to starter in his first game back from a knee injury. Snell handled 21-of-31 RB carries and led the group in snaps (49 percent) with Samuels (30 percent), Trey Edmunds (16 percent), and Kerrith Whyte (9 percent) also working in a decent amount. The Browns are giving up the 6th-most yards per carry to running backs this season but Snell is only a middling FLEX start at best in 12- and 14-team leagues in this somewhat unpredictable backfield.
Packers at Giants (at 1pm ET)
Start: QB Aaron Rodgers; RB Aaron Jones; WR Davante Adams; RB Saquon Barkley; WR Sterling Shepard
FLEX: RB Jamaal Williams
Sit: TE Jimmy Graham
Sleeper: WR Darius Slayton
Injuries to monitor: TE Evan Engram (foot); WR Golden Tate (concussion)
Key Game Facts
-- If both Evan Engram and Golden Tate do not play this week, 31 percent of the Giants targets will be up for grabs
-- Sterling Shepard has seen 7 or more targets in every game he's played this year
-- The Packers have given up a 100+ yard performance to a receiver in three-straight games (Mike Williams, D.J. Moore, and George Kittle)
When the Packers have the ball: Green Bay hasn't shown up in 2 of their last 3 games (11 points Week 9 vs. Chargers; 8 points last week vs. 49ers), but this is a huge chance for everyone in this offense to get back on track. Over the last two months, the Giants rank 8th-worst in passer rating allowed (99.6), 2nd-worst in completions allowed (70 percent), and they've allowed the 7th-most yards per game on the ground in this span. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams should have no issue feasting on this Giants secondary. Aaron Jones has frustratingly only caught 1 pass (for -1 yard) over the last three weeks but we should expect that to normalize soon since Jones has still run 43 routes to Jamaal Williams' 55 over the Packers last three games. Fantasy owners have to go back to Jones as a low-end RB1 in this ripe bounceback spot while Williams can continue to be counted on as a FLEX option.
When the Giants have the ball:Saquon Barkley has certainly been disappointing in fantasy over the last month -- he's only the RB17 in PPR points in this span -- but this is a no-brainer get right spot for him. Green Bay has allowed a total of 11 top-15 fantasy performances to RBs this year as they've been completely wrecked on the ground all season long. Barkley should be more involved as a receiver with Tate and Engram both out and now gets his best matchup all year on the ground against the Packers No. 28 ranked DVOA run defense (per FootballOutsiders). Outside of Barkley, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are both in play as WR2/3 bets. Shepard's volume has been consistent when he's been on the field this season and he and Slayton both have access to a ceiling in a game where the Giants should be trailing and forced to the air.
Eagles at Dolphins (at 1pm ET)
Start: QB Carson Wentz; RB Miles Sanders (if Howard DNP); TE Dallas Goedert
Sit: WR DeVante Parker; RB Kalen Ballage; TE Mike Gesicki
Injuries to monitor: TE Zach Ertz (hamstring); RB Jordan Howard (shoulder); WR Alshon Jeffery (ankle); WR Nelson Agholor (knee)
Key Game Facts
-- Carson Wentz has finished as the QB25, QB19, QB17, QB20, and QB21 over the last five weeks
-- Miami has allowed top-15 fantasy results to 9-of-11 QBs
-- Over the last eight weeks, the Eagles have allowed the 8th-lowest passer rating, the 4th-lowest passing success rate, and have forced pressure at the league's 4th-highest rate
When the Eagles have the ball:Zach Ertz had fantasy managers panicking on Wednesday and Thursday after he did not practice (hamstring), but he returned to limited work on Friday and is tentatively expected to play. Ertz has 9/103/1, 9/94, and 12/91/1 with 11 or more targets over his last three games. With 5 or more targets in 5 of his last six games, Dallas Goedert is still in play as a low-end TE1 in this pristine matchup. Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor are expected to return in Week 13, which finally gives Carson Wentz a full cast of weapons just in time to face Miami's "defense". If Ertz continues trending in the right direction and does suit up, I'm riding Wentz as a QB1 start and potentially low-owned contrarian play in daily formats. Jordan Howard still hasn't been cleared for contact and, once again, appears to be on the wrong side of the questionable tag for Week 13. If Howard does not play, Miles Sanders has a mouth-watering ceiling. Miami has allowed the 5th-most yards per game over the last two months and 7 different RBs have finished as a fantasy RB1 (top-12) against them over the full season. If Howard misses again, I'd start Sanders over Chris Carson and Austin Ekeler this weekend, for example.
When the Dolphins have the ball: Now that the Eagles secondary is finally healthy, I'm fading the Dolphins in fantasy this weekend. Cornerbacks Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills, and Avonte Maddox are all healthy for the first time all season long meaning Philadelphia is no longer a "plus" matchup for fantasy as this unit continues to get healthier. The Eagles have quietly allowed the 4th-fewest yards per game to opposing wideouts over the last month and only one receiver has eclipsed 60 yards against them in this span (Taylor Gabriel 3/69). With their secondary heating up, an elite run defense, and consistently great coverage against tight ends (6th-fewest yards allowed) -- Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kalen Ballage, DeVante Parker, and Mike Gesicki are best left on benches.
49ers at Ravens (at 1pm ET)
Must Play: QB Lamar Jackson; TE George Kittle
Start: RB Mark Ingram; TE Mark Andrews; RB Tevin Coleman
Beware: WR Marquise Brown
Sit: QB Jimmy Garoppolo; WR Emmanuel Sanders; WR Deebo Samuel
Injuries to monitor: RB Matt Breida (ankle)
Key Game Facts
-- The 49ers have allowed 4.67 yards per carry over the last 8 weeks, 9th-most in the NFL
When the 49ers have the ball: Outside of George Kittle (duh) and starting Tevin Coleman in his usual RB2 slot, it's hard to find many play-able 49ers in fantasy football this week. Baltimore has one of the hottest secondaries in the NFL, making both Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel extremely precarious low-end WR3 options in Week 13. On that note, there are plenty of better streaming plays than Jimmy Garoppolo this week. Baltimore hasn't allowed a quarterback to finish better than QB17 against them since Week 4.
When the Ravens have the ball: You know what to do here. Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, and Mark Andrews all need to be locked into lineups in the final week of the fantasy regular season... so the only real question that remains is what to do with Marquise Brown this week. Brown had a big game on plenty of fantasy benches last week (5/42/2), but I'd be extremely cautious starting him in Week 13. Over the last two months, the 49ers have played lockdown coverage across the board, permitting the 4th-fewest fantasy points to receivers aligned out wide (14.1) and they've been even stingier to slot receivers (10.9 PPG allowed; 3rd-fewest). Brown only needs to hit on one deep connection from Jackson to break the game, but there are quite a few wideouts I like over Hollywood this week (like Jamison Crowder, Sterling Shepard, and Robert Woods to name a few).
Rams at Cardinals (at 4:05pm ET)
Start: QB Kyler Murray; WR Cooper Kupp; WR Brandin Cooks; WR Robert Woods; RB Todd Gurley
FLEX: RB Kenyan Drake
How lucky do you feel?: QB Jared Goff
Sit: WR Christian Kirk; WR Larry Fitzgerald; RB David Johnson
Injuries to monitor: RB Chase Edmonds (hamstring); TE Gerald Everett (knee)
Key Game Facts
-- Over the last two months, the Cardinals have allowed the 4th-most fantasy points to receivers aligned out wide
-- Arizona is also allowing the 2nd-most points to receivers in the slot in this span
-- Arizona is the only team in the league allowing over 70 percent of passes to be completed against them both out wide and in the slot
When the Rams have the ball: After failing to throw a single touchdown pass in the month of November, Jared Goff has a chance to get his final month of the regular season started right against Arizona. The Cardinals have allowed an absurd 9-of-11 QBs to finish top-12 in weekly output this year so if Goff can't produce here, the meltdown will officially be complete. Goff is still over-priced on daily sites and hard to trust in season-long lineups, but Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods are all amazing WR2 options on this slate. Meanwhile, Gerald Everett has not practiced all week after hyper-extending his knee on MNF and he seems doubtful to play in Week 13. If Everett can't suit up, Tyler Higbee will immediately become this week's best TE streamer in this flowchart matchup. You can start any TE with a pulse against Arizona. Game-script went awry for Todd Gurley last week as Lamar Jackson beat the Rams down, but Gurley was on the field for 96 percent of the Rams offensive snaps and he's now played over two-thirds of the team's snaps in three-straight games. With the Rams implied to score 26 points (based on the over/under), Gurley is a strong RB2 in this spot.
When the Cardinals have the ball: With QB6, QB4, and QB6 fantasy results in his last three starts and over 30 yards rushing in 4 of his past six games, Kyler Murray has become a weekly must-start regardless of matchup. However, Christian Kirk's matchup won't be easy at all this week. The Rams have been using Jalen Ramsey as a shadow coverage corner since they traded for him and he will most likely travel with Kirk on every snap this week. Ramsey has shut down DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Allen Robinson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster for an average of 6.3 PPR points per game this season, per PFF's Scott Barrett. Larry Fitzgerald will get an easier matchup with Ramsey stuck on Kirk, but Fitzgerald saw 5 or fewer targets in 4 of the Cardinals five games before their bye. You'd have to be pretty desperate to play Fitz as a WR3 this week. Kenyan Drake has at least 15 touches in all three of his games with the Cardinals this season and is certainly a great FLEX play in PPR leagues, but there is simply no way you can trust either David Johnson or Chase Edmonds in a lineup this week. With Edmonds back healthy, there is a chance D.J. operates as the Cards' No. 3 back in rotation.
Chargers at Broncos (at 4:25pm ET)
Must Play: TE Hunter Henry; RB Phillip Lindsay
Start: RB Melvin Gordon; WR Keenan Allen
PPR FLEX: RB Austin Ekeler
Sit: WR Courtland Sutton; TE Noah Fant; RB Royce Freeman; QB Philip Rivers; WR Mike Williams
Key Game Facts
-- Royce Freeman has just 19 touches over his last three games
-- Phillip Lindsay has 41 touches in this span
-- Mike Williams is only averaging 4.8 targets per game over the Chargers last 5 contests
When the Chargers have the ball: With touch counts of 23, 23, and 17 in Weeks 9-11 before L.A.'s Week 12 bye, Melvin Gordon was reinstated as the Chargers lead back over Austin Ekeler (16, 8, and 13 touches in this span). Gordon is a high-end RB2 for Week 13 while Ekeler remains a rock-solid FLEX choice in PPR leagues. Even though he hasn't blown up the box score since early in the season, Keenan Allen has seen double-digit targets in 4 of his last 5 games. Allen is in play as a WR2 this week and he may mostly avoid Broncos stud CB Chris Harris Jr. since he's playing outside much more often this year. On that note, both Mike Williams and Philip Rivers are Week 13 fades. Williams' target volume just hasn't been there since Hunter Henry came back in Week 6 while Rivers has melted down in fantasy football over the last month with dismal QB26, QB21, QB24, and QB24 results.
When the Broncos have the ball:Drew Lock has been practicing with the first-team offense over Brandon Allen this week, which means he'll likely make his first professional start here in Week 13. Lock had been on injured reserve with a thumb injury all season long. With a rookie under center, I'm expecting Denver to ride Phillip Lindsay heavily this week in his newly featured role over Royce Freeman. The Chargers rank No. 27 in FootballOutsiders' DVOA run defense metrics and have permitted a top-15 fantasy performance to a running back in now seven-straight games. Unfortunately, with Lock under center and a tough matchup on deck, Courtland Sutton is once again a sit in fantasy football this week. Sutton is obviously talented enough to have a big game regardless of who is at quarterback, but there is no denying this is a tough matchup. The Chargers have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points (13.4) to receivers aligned out wide over the last two months. Only the Patriots have been better (12.2 PPG allowed) in this span. Noah Fant has been a fine streaming option in recent weeks, but with Lock under center, I'd look elsewhere at Jack Doyle, Ryan Griffin, or Tyler Higbee (if Gerald Everett doesn't play).
Raiders at Chiefs (at 4:25pm ET)
Must Play: QB Patrick Mahomes; WR Tyreek Hill; TE Travis Kelce
Start: RB Josh Jacobs; TE Darren Waller
FLEX: RB LeSean McCoy
Sleeper: RB Darrel Williams
Sit: QB Derek Carr; WR Tyrell Williams; WR Sammy Watkins
Injuries to monitor: RB Damien Williams (ribs)
Key Game Facts
-- Patrick Mahomes is averaging 330 yards and 3.3 passing TDs per game against the Raiders in his career
-- Travis Kelce's game log with Mahomes under center vs. the Raiders over the last two years: 12/168/2, 5/62, and 7/107/1 with at least 9 targets in every game
When the Raiders have the ball: Oakland's defense has no chance at slowing down Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid coming off of a bye, so we should fully expect HC Jon Gruden to come out with a run-first game-plan to try and keep the Chiefs explosive offense off of the field. Whether or not the Raiders can stick with the run throughout the game is another discussion entirely -- Kansas City could get up quickly here -- but Josh Jacobs is a top-10 RB play this week regardless. The Chiefs have allowed the league's 2nd-worst rushing success rate and 3rd-most rushing yards per game over the last two months. Darren Waller has been a bit disappointing as of late after a hot start to the season, but slot man Hunter Renfrow's (ribs, punctured lung) absence will quietly open up more volume. I'd stick with Waller as a TE1 and bench Tyrell Williams in this spot. Williams has proven to be a TD-or-bust fantasy option this season and has yet to see more than 7 targets in a single game. Making matters worse for Williams is the Chiefs stingy coverage on the boundary. Kansas City has held opposing receivers to a league-low 47 percent catch rate when they've aligned out wide over the last two months.
When the Chiefs have the ball:Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce all may be the No. 1 overall plays at their positions this week, so I'll only focus on breaking down this backfield in this space. Damien Williams (ribs) has already been ruled out for Week 13 which means Kansas City will turn back to a committee of LeSean McCoy, Darrel Williams, and maybe a sprinkling of Darwin Thompson against Oakland. When Williams missed time earlier this season, McCoy turned his 11 touches into 80 yards from scrimmage and 2 TDs in Week 3 and had another solid day with 13 touches, 89 scrimmage yards, and a score in Week 4. McCoy is at least on the radar as a FLEX option for Week 13 lineup decisions but just note that Darrel Williams out-snapped McCoy in Damien Williams two missed games, mixing in for 14 and 11 touches. Darrel Williams has looked like the best option in this backfield at times this season and it wouldn't surprise me if Reid gave him some extra burn if he gets the hot hand this week.
Patriots at Texans (at 8:20pm ET)
Start: QB Tom Brady; WR Julian Edelman
Start and pray: QB Deshaun Watson; WR DeAndre Hopkins
Beware: Patriots RBs
Sit: WR Will Fuller; RB Carlos Hyde
Injuries to monitor: WR Mohamed Sanu (ankle); WR Phillip Dorsett (concussion)
Key Game Facts
-- In career two games against the Patriots, Deshaun Watson has completed just 58 percent of his passes for 7.1 yards per attempt while committing 4 turnovers (3 INTs, 1 fumble) and throwing 3 TDs
-- DeAndre Hopkins has played six career games against Bill Belichick and has yet to clear 80 yards or score a TD vs. New England
When the Patriots have the ball: With WR10, WR10, WR23, WR4, WR18, WR17, and WR17 fantasy finishes over his last seven games, Julian Edelman has been the epitome of consistency as of late and there is no reason to go away from him as one of the best WR2 options of Week 13. On the other hand, Tom Brady has not finished as a QB1 (top-12) in fantasy football since Week 6 -- but this might be the week he finds his ceiling again. Houston has allowed the 8th-most fantasy points per game to QBs this year and Brady has owned Bill O'Brien's unit in years past. Brady has thrown for multiple passing touchdowns in four meetings against the Texans and tossed for over 270 yards in 3-of-4. Phillip Dorsett and Mohamed Sanu's potential return to the lineup also helps Brady's outlook this week. You're on your own if you want to start a Patriots back in fantasy this week. Since Rex Burkhead returned to the lineup in Week 8, the Patriots have split snaps in their backfield almost completely down the middle (109 snaps for White, 100 for Michel, and 72 for Burkhead). Michel is averaging 8.1 fewer fantasy points per game when Rex Burkhead is active over the last two years while White puts up 6.8 fewer PPG when Burkhead plays as well.
When the Texans have the ball:Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins are talented enough to go off in any matchup...but this one is particularly difficult. The Patriots play more man coverage than any team in the league and Watson has struggled against man coverage this season, throwing for 2.9 fewer yards per attempt vs man (6.5) compared to zone coverage (9.4). That's the 4th-largest difference in YPA vs. man and zone coverage for QBs, per PFF. More man coverage could open up scramble lanes for Watson, though, and rushing is really the only thing we can rely on for Watson this week. Will Fuller blew up for 7/140 on 11 targets in his return from a hamstring injury last week, but I can't recommend him as a start against this Patriots secondary that has allowed just 7-of-52 (13.5 percent) deep passes to be completed. Carlos Hyde has been one of the most game-script dependent running backs in the league this season with just 12, 12, 10, and 9 carries in the Texans four losses. With the Patriots favored to win by 4 points, Hyde is best left on your bench in Week 13.
Vikings at Seahawks (at 8:15pm ET; Monday Night Football)
Must Play: RB Dalvin Cook
Start: QB Russell Wilson; WR Tyler Lockett; WR D.K. Metcalf; TE Jacob Hollister; WR Stefon Diggs
I have no idea: RB Chris Carson; RB Rashaad Penny
Stream: QB Kirk Cousins
Sit: TE Kyle Rudolph (if Thielen plays)
Injuries to monitor: WR Adam Thielen (hamstring)
Key Game Facts
-- Kirk Cousins ranks 2nd-best in completion rate above expected this year (7.4 percent)
-- Russell Wilson ranks 4th-best in completion rate above expected (6.3 percent)
When the Vikings have the ball:Adam Thielen returned to a full practice on Friday, putting him squarely on track to return for Week 13. With his top two wideouts back healthy and Dalvin Cook balling out, Kirk Cousins has QB1 upside against this Seahawks secondary that has allowed top-15 fantasy results to every QB they have faced save Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Carson Wentz. Opposing offenses are electing to throw far more often than run against the Seahawks this year -- only Tampa Bay is facing more passing attempts per game than Seattle -- giving this game strong shootout potential. Meanwhile, Thielen's return turns Kyle Rudolph back into a TD-dependent tight end option. Rudolph caught 9 balls for 72 yards when Thielen was fully healthy in Week 1-6.
When the Seahawks have the ball: Now back at home and favored to win in Week 13, Russell Wilson and Seattle's entire passing attack is in an elite bounceback spot against Minnesota. While the Vikings front seven can still create tons of pressure, their secondary is getting ripped to shreds by boundary receivers. Only Tampa Bay (35.2) has allowed more PPR points per game to receivers aligned out wide than Seattle (32.5) over the last two months so Tyler Lockett (1/38 in Week 12) and D.K. Metcalf (3/35) should get back on track on MNF. Jacob Hollister should have scored again last week -- Russell Wilson badly overthrew him while Hollister was wide open in the end zone -- but he ended up flopping for 2/22 alongside Lockett and Metcalf. Still, we can go back to Hollister as a low-end TE1 start in Week 13 against a Vikings team that has quietly allowed the 4th-most receptions per game to tight ends this year. Chris Carson is an incredible running back, but Seattle is growing tired of his "fumblitis". Carson has put the ball on the ground a league-high 7 times this year and he was involved in yet another turnover last week on a botched exchange between him and Wilson. The Seahawks have stood by Carson all year despite his repeated fumbles but last week may have been a turning point as Rashaad Penny took advantage of his career-high in carries (14) and snaps (46 percent), roasting the Eagles run defense for 129 yards and a score. You can't start Penny in any fantasy leagues next week, but it'll be very interesting to see if Carson's demotion lasts more than one game. I genuinely have no idea what to expect.
- -- Graham Barfield is a fantasy editor and analyst for NFL.com. Catch him on the NFL Fantasy Football podcast with Marcas Grant and Michael Fabiano, Fantasy LIVE on NFL Network, watch him on Fantasy League One, and follow him on Twitter @GrahamBarfield. *