Week 13 NFL picks: Who will win in Thanksgiving Day tripleheader? Raiders to stun Chiefs on Black Friday?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 13 NFL picks below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 6 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 27 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
3. \\ -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

THURSDAY, NOV. 28

Why Dan picked the Lions: It does not look like these are Lions you can catch napping. Detroit easily could have sleepwalked through games against the struggling Jaguars and Colts in recent weeks, but the opposite played out, with Dan Campbell’s squad tearing through anything in its path on the way to a nine-game winning streak. Enter a Bears team that has lost five in a row since a Week 7 bye, the last two by a combined four points. This one shouldn’t be so close. While the Chicago offense has improved since Thomas Brown replaced Shane Waldron as play-caller, the defense has gone in the opposite direction. Matt Eberflus’ D has allowed 4.9 yards per carry since Week 8, fifth-most in the league over that span, and the most yards per pass attempt in the league in the past three weeks (10.2). It would be a historic upset if the Bears shocked the world on Thanksgiving. They would become the second team in NFL history to snap a losing streak of five or more games against a team on a winning streak of nine or more games, per NFL Research. Playing bad defense against a juggernaut seems like a way to ensure that won’t happen, though.

Why Tom picked the Cowboys: There are multiple levels to the NFL cellar, and Dallas is perched high enough above the Giants to inspire a bit more confidence in this matchup of backup-led sub-.500 squads. Not that I necessarily foresee a cakewalk for the 'Boys. Last week's stomping by the Bucs aside, Big Blue has played teams close over the past month, losing to the Panthers in overtime and getting within five points of the Commanders in Week 9. Of course, the Cowboys actually beat Washington in Week 12, with Cooper Rush compiling the second-best passer rating (117.6) of any Dallas QB in a game this season. Maybe that was in part a reflection of the Commanders' inability to stop the pass (102.8 passer rating allowed, 29th in the NFL); then again, the Giants have been worse in that department (105.1 passer rating allowed, 30th). Rush should be more settled in than whoever will be under center for New York, whether that's Tommy DeVito (whose trip to Dallas reportedly was delayed so that his injured forearm could be further evaluated Wednesday) or Drew Lock -- though if he follows his trajectory from last year, Lock is about due to mount a swaggering, shocking upset on the national stage. Which brings me to my final prediction for this game, which is more of a hopeful wish: However ugly things might get, we are entertained throughout.

Why Gennaro picked the Packers: Logging three straight wins, the Dolphins have crawled back into the playoff picture. After grinding to a depressing halt during Tua Tagovailoa’s four-game absence following a concussion, Mike McDaniel’s offense is humming once again with the deft distributor running the point. Miami has averaged a healthy 29 points per game since the quarterback’s return in Week 8; Tagovailoa has posted an 11:1 TD-to-INT ratio while leading the league in completion percentage (76.5) and passer rating (116.2) during that span.

But in this Thanksgiving nightcap at Lambeau Field, Tua must face a troublesome foe: the cold.

Thursday evening’s forecast for Green Bay has the temperature dropping below the freezing point. That is notable with this quarterback. Just ask the good folks at NFL Research, who crunched the numbers on Tagovailoa’s performance when the kickoff temp sits below a certain threshold.

• Tua at 40-plus degrees: 36-19 W-L record, 25.6 ppg for Miami, 68.6 comp%, 91:37 TD-to-INT, 100.2 passer rating.
• Tua under 40 degrees: 0-4 W-L record, 16.3 ppg for Miami, 54.4 comp%, 4:5 TD-to-INT, 68.2 passer rating.

Meanwhile, Tua’s quarterbacking counterpart in this game, Jordan Love, is fresh off his first interception-free outing of the season. Love and the Pack stay hot in the cold.

FRIDAY, NOV. 29

Why Brooke picked the Chiefs: Right now, the Chiefs aren't the juggernaut we're used to seeing, but I know one thing: They know how to win. Only the Bills have been able to capitalize on Kansas City's vulnerabilities, as the Chiefs are 10-1 overall and 8-0 in one-score games. And now, Patrick Mahomes is slowly finding it. He's thrown 10 touchdown passes against two interceptions since Week 9, after having an 8:9 TD-to-INT ratio in his first seven games. Can a Raiders group that has lost seven straight and is allowing 28.5 points per game concoct a little Black Friday magic? Weirder things have happened, especially in division games -- just look at the results of last week's Steelers-Browns, Cowboys-Commanders and Titans-Texans games. Aidan O'Connell, who upset the Chiefs on Christmas Day last season, is back under center for the Raiders after missing a month-plus of action with a broken thumb. His play was fine prior to that injury -- nothing spectacular -- and maybe a change at QB is the spark Vegas needs after failing to score 20 points in either of its last two games. But the second-year passer must face a Chiefs D looking to tighten up down the stretch after allowing both the Bills and Panthers to rack up points. This one has Kansas City written all over it.

SUNDAY, DEC. 1

Why Ali picked the Chargers: Atlanta stumbled into last week’s bye in desperate need of some major course correction. Clinging to a narrow lead in the division after fumbling back-to-back games, the Falcons can ill-afford to drop a third in a row. Raheem Morris obviously knows this, and undoubtedly spent the break problem-solving the team’s recent offensive decline and season-long ineffectiveness rushing the passer. One way Atlanta’s head man intends to fix the former is by using more play-action, which definitely seems like a good place to start. While it won’t be an instant panacea, especially versus a Chargers pass defense that ranks 10th in that department, it should at least force opposing defenses into more conflict scenarios. How the Falcons suddenly manufacture a pass rush three months into the campaign is another story entirely. Doing so against one of the NFL’s better offensive lines seems improbable. While I don’t doubt Morris was able to scheme up at least a few solutions during the past two weeks, I’m not sure they’ll be enough to overcome the multiple advantages the Chargers have on both sides of the ball. Atlanta’s quick-strike ability -- and Los Angeles' recent susceptibility to big plays -- could end up keeping this game competitive in the box score, though, even if it doesn't seem as tight during the live broadcast.

Why Brooke picked the Bengals: This will be the Steelers' third of four straight divisional games, and as we saw last week (hey, Cleveland!), there are no gimmes in the AFC North. That stands even against a Bengals team that is 0-6 against opponents that are .500 or better this season. Cincinnati is coming off the bye week and the urgency is as high as it's ever been, as it sits 10th in the AFC playoff picture in spite of career campaigns from Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. That pair has proven Cincy's offense can hang with anyone, regardless of how good the opposing defense is. The "MVP-caliber" Burrow is 7-3 with 20 pass TDs and one INT against top-five scoring defenses since 2021 (including playoffs). Pittsburgh's D has been superb in 2024, allowing nine pass TDs (while snagging 12 INTs) and a 76.9 passer rating (both second-lowest in the NFL). It'll be a treat when these two units are on the field Sunday. The same can't be said for when the Steelers offense and Bengals defense are out there. Russell Wilson and Co. have stalled over the last two weeks, averaging just 18.5 points and 2.0 offensive TDs per game (tied for 23rd in the NFL) since Week 11. Meanwhile, the Bengals' defense has allowed 26.9 points per game (28th in the NFL), struggling mightily on third down and in the red zone. This week could be a positive turning point for one of those two units. With Cincy coming off the bye and playing at home -- and with Pittsburgh right in the grind of its daunting schedule -- I'll give the Bengals the slight edge.

Why Dan picked the Texans: It’s gut-check time for the Texans. Losers in four of their past six games, they now must go on the road to face the well-rested Jaguars and risk allowing the AFC South race to become interesting again if they drop another one to a sub-.500 team. The Texans are finding weird ways to lose during this rough stretch, falling to the Lions at home in a game where they picked off Jared Goff five times and led by 16 at halftime. Last week, they lost to the Titans despite sacking Will Levis eight times and scoring on a pick-six. In other words, it’s very hard to trust DeMeco Ryans’ squad right now. I’m doing it anyway, although I don’t feel good about it, especially given C.J. Stroud’s play of late. I feel even worse about Doug Pederson’s team. The disparity between the defenses jumps out to me, with Houston ranking third in DVOA and Jacksonville coming in dead last. I know Trevor Lawrence might return this week, but he alone isn’t going to fix the Jaguars, who were 2-7 before he was sidelined by his left shoulder injury.

Why Tom picked the Cardinals: When weighing these closely matched members of the NFC's upper-middle class, I was initially drawn to the Vikings. I was actually about to write a blurb-opening caveat about how much it pained me -- and scared me and frankly made me a little sad -- to go against Kyler Murray. But then I decided that, at this point in the calendar year, during Thanksgiving Week, I will not make the pick that makes me sad. I am wary of Minnesota proving itself the stouter contender and further exposing Arizona, which might have been playing a little over its head during its four-game win streak. And there are numbers that spell trouble for the Cardinals, notably stemming from the Vikings' defensive prowess. Instead of belaboring those, however, let's dig into the factor that allowed me to sketch the contours of a possible Arizona win in my mind: these two teams' track records over the past six weeks. Minnesota has won four games in a row against sub-.500 squads by an average of 6.5 points. Before that, the Vikings failed consecutive tests against the Lions and Rams. The Cardinals faltered against the Seahawks, but they also blew out the Jets and Bears and scraped out tough wins against the ascending Dolphins and Chargers. I am going with my heart and giving Murray and Co. another close one Sunday.

Why Gennaro picked the Colts: With four losses in their past five games, the Colts are down -- but they’re not out. Next Gen Stats' Playoff Probability model gives Indianapolis a 23 percent chance to hit the postseason. Not the best odds, but far from unthinkable, especially when you take a gander at Indy’s forthcoming slate …

• Week 13:
• Week 14: BYE
• Week 15:
• Week 16:
• Week 17:
• Week 18:

That, my friends, is the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL (.298 opponent win percentage). And yes, the Week 14 bye is conveniently located right before the one game versus a team with a winning record.

So, you’re telling me there’s a chance? Indeed there is. But Shane Steichen needs to jump-start an offense that just posted season lows in points (six) and first downs (11) in a slow-cooked loss to the Lions. For his part, second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson has played better since returning to the starting lineup two weeks ago, but honestly, the key is getting Jonathan Taylor going again. Indy’s bell-cow back has seriously struggled to gain traction on the ground in three of the past four games, though it felt like the Colts abandoned the run too early in Detroit. I’m thinking Steichen won’t make that same mistake in Foxborough.

Why Ali picked the Jets: That vintage Aaron Rodgers performance from Week 3 feels like a lifetime ago. What might’ve been a catalyst for a told-you-so campaign looks more like a mirage in a season mired by false hope. And yet, I find myself getting drawn back into New York's web once again. The Jets are still loaded with top-end talent that, on any given week, can overcome the team’s overall lack of depth. And with extra time to prepare, against a visiting Seahawks squad that’s also been up-and-down this season (they’ve had far more ups than downs recently, to be fair), might this week serve as a reminder that, if not for a few wacky endings, New York could actually be .500 or better on the year? Maybe. Or maybe the Seahawks keep rolling. Geno Smith is 4-1 against teams he’s previously played for, and surely would love for win No. 5 to come in his first career start at the Meadowlands against the team that drafted him. Plus, he’s already won two Sunday afternoon East Coast games this season, so time and location might be overrated variables in this one. If you’ve picked up on my waffling thus far, then you’ve probably guessed I could see this one going either way. So I’ll lean on some (highly selective, perhaps irrelevant) data to sway me: Rodgers has the fourth-best win percentage in December (.759, 41-13) among the 79 QBs with at least 15 total starts since 2000 -- ranking 58 spots higher than Geno Smith (.412, 7-10). In other words, I’m going with my gut.

Why Brooke picked the Commanders: Washington has certainly cooled off in recent weeks with three straight losses that have suddenly put its playoff aspirations in jeopardy. Jayden Daniels was truly elite early in the year, but he's struggled in this recent skid, completing 61.5 percent of his passes since Week 10 (down from 71.5 in Weeks 1-9) with just three TD passes and three INTs in that span. It's not just Daniels, though: The offense has sputtered as a whole. Since Week 8, in which the Commanders have gone 2-3, they are averaging 5.5 yards per play, converting one-third of the time on third down and scoring 23.2 points per game -- that's nearly eight points fewer than in the first seven weeks of the season. Coming into the DMV on Sunday: an unpredictable Tennessee squad with an unpredictable Will Levis under center. The Titans pulled out a road upset in Houston last week, and Levis has played much better of late despite his shaky offensive line. Mistakes will likely decide this tilt, and both of these teams have made plenty this season. The Titans are the second-most penalized team in 2024 (eight per game), while Washington is looking to erase the crushing ending in last week's loss to Dallas. The need to get back into the win column before the bye looms large for Commanders, who are currently the seventh seed in the NFC playoffs. Playing with that type of urgency is enough Sunday.

Why Dan picked the Buccaneers: Carolina should be a tougher test for the Bucs than the woeful Giants were last week. Dave Canales’ squad is certainly playing much better of late, winning back-to-back games before its bye week and then nearly pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the year, losing to the Chiefs on a last-second field goal. For the first time this season, Bryce Young has gone consecutive games without turning the ball over. A clean game can keep the Panthers competitive, but Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay offense are on a different level with Mike Evans back in the lineup. I also don’t have much faith in the league’s lowest-ranked run defense against Bucky Irving/Rachaad White/Sean Tucker. The Bucs look determined to stay in the NFC South race, which means losing this week isn’t an option.

Why Gennaro picked the Saints: Because the Saints can run the football, and the Rams just gave up 314 yards rushing. Granted, the man who spent this past Sunday night running circles around Los Angeles, Saquon Barkley, is a special back in the midst of an MVP-caliber season. But Alvin Kamara isn’t exactly chopped liver. In fact, I see AK as one of the unsung heroes of 2024. Sure, the five-time Pro Bowler got his shine during the first two weeks of the season -- when New Orleans surprisingly sprinted out of the gates with video game production on offense -- but then the injury bug SWARMED the Saints. Consequently, New Orleans lost seven straight games, Dennis Allen lost his job and the general public lost interest in the Saints. Amidst it all, the team’s 29-year-old bell cow just kept pounding the rock, despite operating in a broken offense while playing through his own laundry list of injuries (hip pointer, broken ribs, fractured hand). It wasn’t always pretty -- Kamara spent many a Sunday running into brick walls and then empathizing with fans who were upset with the lackluster product -- but No. 41 was always out there, refusing to miss a game while maintaining a pace to secure the first 1,000-yard rushing season of his stellar career. Recently, though, the Saints got healthier and returned to the winner’s circle, earning back-to-back victories before last week’s bye. Fresh and frisky once again -- with Taysom Hill coming off the ultimate Taysom Hill game -- New Orleans is poised to punish Los Angeles’ soft run defense. On Thanksgiving week, I’m thankful for Kamara’s effort in a trying season. And on Sunday, AK feasts!

Why Tom picked the Ravens: Philly has turned into a juggernaut over the past seven weeks -- but it hasn't yet faced a challenge quite like stopping Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Of course, Baltimore hasn't faced a challenge quite like stopping Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. (I'm not quite ready to graduate Jayden Daniels and the Commanders' ground attack, whom the Eagles and Ravens each defeated this season, to that level yet.) But the Ravens feel a bit more battle tested. It wouldn't be a shock if they pushed past the Eagles' stellar per-game averages in passing-yards (175.5) and rushing-yards (99.2) allowed. I also expect Hurts and Barkley to obliterate Baltimore's own impressive rushing-yards-allowed average (77.9), which is hard to separate from the fact that most Ravens opponents tend to spend most of their time playing from behind. Baltimore's pass defense (277.7 passing yards allowed per game) is a potential liability. Still, if we get the titanic rushing clash that we deserve, I'll roll with Jackson putting his team over the edge in the end.

Why Ali picked the Bills: With their season on the brink, a less-than-whole 49ers team must face one of the stiffest tests the league has to offer this year: the Bills at Highmark Stadium. Buffalo has outclassed each of its five visitors thus far, scoring at least 30 points (they hung 47 on the Jags in Week 3) and forcing at least one turnover in each game (with a +5 margin total). Not even the reigning champs were able to escape upstate New York unscathed. That this matchup is in prime time and following a Bills bye week just seems wholly unfair to San Francisco; Josh Allen boasts the second-best prime-time win percentage (.720, 18-7) among qualifying QBs since 2018 and sports a flawless 6-0 career record in post-bye contests.

Hard to know at this stage who San Francisco expects to suit up Sunday night. But even at full strength, the 2024 Niners haven’t performed like the world-beaters we’ve come to expect from a Kyle Shanahan-led squad. Although I don’t think they’ll get “embarrassed” like they did last week, the Niners ultimately come up short for the seventh time this season.

MONDAY, DEC. 2

Why Tom picked the Broncos: Well, for one thing, the weather forecast for the Denver area does not include snow, which has been an essential factor in 30 percent of Cleveland's wins this season. Since giving up a 40-burger to the Ravens in Week 9, the Broncos have churned out a trio of steady performances, nearly upsetting the Chiefs and coasting past the Falcons and Raiders. They are also the only team to not give up a single turnover over the past three weeks. The Browns, on the other hand, have sandwiched a pair of wild wins over the upper crust of the AFC North around total duds against the Chargers and Saints. Jameis Winston never quits, which is good when he's launching himself into the end zone and bad when he's throwing the ball up for grabs. Denver seems ideally positioned to bring Chaotic Jameis to the fore, with a defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in pressure rate (39.6%), 10th in passer rating allowed (84.7) and 10th in interceptions (nine). If Bo Nix can continue his recent run of solid quarterbacking (71.4% completion rate, 8:0 TD-to-INT ratio over the past three games), the Broncos should get to win No. 8 four weeks before they did in Year 1 under Sean Payton.

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