Christmas Day NFL games: Picks for Chiefs-Steelers, Ravens-Texans on Netflix

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their picks for Week 17's two NFL Christmas Day games on Netflix.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 24, unless otherwise noted below.
2. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
3. \\ -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 25

Why Gennaro picked the Chiefs: Pittsburgh needs star wideout George Pickens back from his hamstring injury. I know it, you know it, and Russell Wilson certainly knows it: “There’s only so many people in the world -- you know, you can count ‘em on one hand -- that can do what he can do,” the Steelers quarterback said on Monday. Strong words, but Wilson has good reason to use them …

• Russ with Pickens: 5-1 W-L, 28.7 team ppg, 271.0 pass ypg, 8.7 pass yds/att.
• Russ without Pickens: 1-2 W-L, 19.0 team ppg, 167.7 pass ypg, 6.2 pass yds/att.

Officially off the injury report on Tuesday, Pickens is set to return to action on Christmas Day. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, though, Kansas City’s receiving corps just received an early Christmas present, with free-agent signee Marquise Brown making his long-awaited Chiefs debut in this past Saturday’s win over the Texans. After missing the first 14 games of the season due to a shoulder injury suffered in the preseason, the 27-year-old burner caught five passes for 45 yards. That stat line doesn’t knock your socks off, but the fact that Patrick Mahomes immediately peppered his new toy with eight targets shows that “Hollywood” is indeed a consequential addition. Edge protection remains a concern for K.C.'s offense -- especially against a ferocious front like Pittsburgh’s -- but it feels like the passing-game weaponry could be falling into place, with Brown and Xavier Worthy serving as the primary playmakers while Travis Kelce and DeAndre Hopkins operate as reliable chain-movers. If Isiah Pacheco can regain his pre-injury juice as the bell-cow back, the back-to-back Super Bowl champs could really hit the postseason in fighting form. Because of course.

Why Brooke picked the Ravens: Baltimore has been cruising since its Week 14 bye, averaging 431.5 offensive yards and 34.5 points per game over its last two outings. Lamar Jackson continues to move the ball at will this season -- throwing for a franchise-record 37 TDs (breaking his own mark from back in 2019) against just four INTs and rushing for 6.1 yards per carry -- as he pushes toward a potential third MVP. It's not exactly a surprise that Baltimore boasts a top-two rushing attack with Jackson and Derrick Henry sharing the backfield, but the fact that Jackson is also spearheading a top-five passing unit is downright scary for the rest of the league. Houston's defense, which ranks 11th against the run and sixth against the pass, will have its hands full versus this pick-your-poison attack. The best approach for the Texans likely will be keeping Lamar and Co. off the field. To do so, Houston must get a big-time performance from Joe Mixon -- not the version who's rushed for a grand total of 80 yards over the last two weeks. He'll make a huge statement if he can get going against Zach Orr's top-ranked run defense. A big concern, though, is the fact that C.J. Stroud will be without (another) one of his top wideouts (Tank Dell) against a Ravens pass defense that has improved of late. Baltimore has allowed fewer than 200 yards through the air in four of its last five games (with the Chargers barely clearing that threshold with 202 in Week 12) and the second-lowest passer rating to opposing QBs (78.4) since Week 11. Having clinched a playoff berth last week, these Ravens are blossoming into a group that could make a deep run. Beating a Texans team that's just 1-4 against opponents who are .500 or better this season feels like the next notch on the belt for John Harbaugh's bunch.

Visit ResponsiblePlay.org to learn more about responsible betting.