Week 8 NFL picks: Will Eagles or Bengals win third straight? Cowboys or 49ers on Sunday night?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Thursday's game and the rest of their Week 8 NFL picks below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of noon ET on Thursday, Oct. 24 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
3. \\ -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

SUNDAY, OCT. 27

Why Brooke picked the Ravens: The Ravens are on a heater, having won their last five games after starting 0-2. During that five-game win streak, Baltimore is averaging 35 points per game and leads the NFL in total yards per game (479) and rush yards per game (228). That's a testament to Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, who have built early cases to be the league's Most Valuable Player and Offensive Player of the Year, respectively. When the Ravens' offense is on the field, you best not blink because something special is likely about to happen. That hasn't been the case for Cleveland, which will start Jameis Winston in place of the injured Deshaun Watson. Maybe Winston and a change at play-caller will provide a spark for a team that hasn't eclipsed 20 points and ranks dead last in total offense in 2024, but even against a middle-of-the-road Ravens defense, it feels like a steep climb for a unit without a true No. 1 receiver. The Browns' defense is their strength, and while Lamar hasn't historically balled out against this division foe -- with a 6:6 TD-to-INT ratio and 40 rush yards per contest in five career games vs. Cleveland -- I trust the reigning MVP more than just about anyone right now. All of my marbles are going in the Ravens' basket.

Why Dan picked the Lions: It’s hard to like Tennessee's chances in any game right now, let alone one on the road against a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations. The Titans, averaging 17.7 points per game (26th in the league), have even less firepower to keep up with the Lions after trading away DeAndre Hopkins this week. With Mason Rudolph likely to get another start at quarterback, Tennessee's best hope of making this game competitive is for its defense -- the stingiest in the league in yards allowed -- to shake Jared Goff out of his comfort zone to the point where he commits multiple turnovers. Goff is 3-8 in his career against opponents ranked in the top five in total defense (in Week 5 or later), with his teams averaging a Titans-like 17.4 points in those contests. Brian Callahan’s squad ranks just 20th in the league in QB pressure rate (31.6%), though, and it will be lining up across from arguably the best offensive line in the game. The Titans haven’t won a game played outside of Miami or Nashville in nearly two years. I don’t expect to see that streak snapped in Detroit.

Why Gennaro picked the Texans: At the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine, Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud each put on a show, but the content was entirely different. Richardson turned heads first with an astounding display of athleticism at 6-foot-4 and 244 pounds, blazing a 4.43 40-yard dash and nearly jumping out of Lucas Oil Stadium. Stroud skipped athletic testing in Indianapolis, but he stole the spotlight with a silky-smooth throwing session that left NFL Network draft guru Daniel Jeremiah in awe.

Fast-forward to the present, and Stroud’s arm has shined far brighter than Richardson’s legs on the NFL stage. Houston’s quarterback took the league by storm in 2023, earning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors after abruptly lifting the downtrodden Texans to the top of the AFC South, a perch they still sit on today. Richardson, on the other hand, has seriously struggled with injuries and inaccuracy. The flashes of brilliance pale in comparison to the fits of inconsistency, and it feels like the Colts own a respectable 4-3 record in spite of AR.

All that said, Stroud has noticeably struggled in recent weeks without his favorite target (Nico Collins), having just posted a career-low 86 passing yards in last Sunday’s loss at Green Bay. Meanwhile, it looks like Richardson’s about to get back a struggling young quarterback’s best friend -- a potent ground game -- with RB Jonathan Taylor returning to practice on Wednesday. So, while I envision Stroud prevailing over Richardson, I don’t see it being as one-sided as their respective careers to this point.

Why Ali picked the Packers: Riding a three-game win streak that includes last week’s walk-off field goal against the Texans, the Packers deserve to be feeling themselves a bit. But Matt LaFleur and Co. can’t allow the good vibes from last weekend or their massive date with Detroit in Week 9 to distract from what awaits them this Sunday: A Jags team with renewed confidence coming off their most complete performance of the season. Thanks to some fantastic insights from the NFL Research team, I see this potential Packers trap game coming down to three primary factors: big plays, takeaways and pressure. See for yourself:

• Green Bay’s offense has produced the second-most big plays per game this season (8.4), while Jacksonville’s defense has allowed the most (7.6). Trevor Lawrence leads the NFL in total EPA on deep throws, while the Packers' defense ranks first in picks off deep passes (five).
• Lawrence already has as many zero-turnover games in 2024 -- including last Sunday’s win against New England -- as he had all of last season (four). But he still leads the NFL in giveaways (63) since debuting in 2021 and has only gone back-to-back games without coughing up the ball four times in his pro career. Green Bay’s defense, meanwhile, paces the league in takeaways (17) -- despite coming up empty in that department for the first time last week.
• Jordan Love has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year when he isn’t pressured (118.2 passer rating) ... and one of the worst when he is (36.7). The Jags produced the third-lowest pressure rate from Weeks 1-6 (26.9%), but generated a season-high 38.1 percent against the Pats’ ever-changing O-line in Week 7.

So, which offense will produce more chunk plays on Sunday? Can the Jags protect the football for another four quarters? Will Love have a clean pocket to work from? My answers: Packers; no; sometimes. Verdict: Green Bay wins, but it's close.

Why Tom picked the Cardinals: The idea that Tua Tagovailoa will instantly restore the Dolphins' offensive prowess is the kind of narratively satisfying scenario that I usually am a sucker for. I might regret not giving more weight to Tyreek Hill's enthusiastic assessment of how things looked at Wednesday's practice as the team prepared for Tagovailoa to return from a concussion that has sidelined him since Week 2. Taking Miami just feels like too much of a dice roll at this point. Instead, I'm rocking with Kyler Murray, who came through with a strong performance against the Chargers on Monday, just as I predicted he wouldn't. The Dolphins are no pushovers on defense, ranking fourth in yards allowed, but they also have given up 100-plus rushing yards in three straight contests. Murray and James Conner could give Arizona enough on the ground to ruin Tua's comeback party.

Why Ali picked the Jets: New York’s multiple season-saving moves in recent weeks generated plenty of immediate optimism but not the all-coveted spark that one hopes for when going all in. Fresh off the most lopsided loss of their season, with injuries piling up and time running out, the Jets somehow seem even farther from their goal than before the franchise-rocking decisions. Aaron Rodgers and Co. need a Hail Mary just to stabilize their season. … Is that the Patriots’ music?! New England has dropped six straight since stunning Cincinnati in Week 1, with four of those losses -- including their Week 3 meltdown in the Meadowlands -- coming by at least 16 points. The Pats have been pushed around on both sides of the line of scrimmage, leading head coach Jerod Mayo to accuse his team of being “soft.” Although Drake Maye’s ability to escape the pocket and extend plays has breathed a bit of life into New England's passing attack, the Pats' O-line is a mess and they have no offensive balance. Or home-field advantage: New England owns the worst home record (1-11) in the league since the start of the 2023 season. The Jets, for all their foibles, are the far superior team on paper and should be in person on Sunday, too.

Why Tom picked the Falcons: Three weeks ago, I thought Baker Mayfield would spin enough magic -- and Tampa's pass rush would bother Kirk Cousins enough -- for the Bucs to win this matchup on the road. Well, Cousins was definitely not bothered. Even if Todd Bowles and Co. (plus Antoine Winfield Jr., who missed that Week 5 showdown) manage to hold Cousins below the 500-yard mark this time, the Falcons' offense should be sufficiently productive. And I don't like Mayfield's chances of keeping up without injured receivers Mike Evans or Chris Godwin, who seem to have played such an important role in the Baker Project over the past two seasons. Since he arrived in Tampa, Mayfield has thrown 800 passes -- and 372 of those (46.5 percent) went to Evans and Godwin, generating a combined passer rating of 103.3, nearly 10 points better than Mayfield's passer rating when targeting all other Bucs players (93.8). Of the 148 TD passes Mayfield has thrown in his career, 26 were scored by Evans and Godwin -- that's 17.6 percent. It might take Mayfield and Liam Coen some time to cook up a workaround.

Why Gennaro picked the Bengals: Neither of these teams started off the season in impressive fashion, but in an odd scheduling quirk, both just experienced the exact same get-right salve over the past couple weeks: games against the Browns and Giants. Now, after each logging a pair of wins over those two bottom-feeders, the Eagles and Bengals meet in Cincinnati for a matchup that begs one question:

Which would-be contender do you believe in more? Or, for you glass-half-empty types, which underachiever do you trust less?

OK, from a pure record perspective, the 4-2 Eagles are obviously in better shape than the 3-4 Bengals. But with Philadelphia’s staggering 2023 collapse still fresh on the mind, it’s only natural to remain on fraud watch. And this year’s team has supplied ample basis for skepticism: Jalen Hurts is still a far cry from his 2022 MVP runner-up form, Nick Sirianni recently apologized for trolling his own fans, and the Eagles have yet to score a single first-quarter point. Of course, the Bengals have their own issues, starting with a gross inability to play complementary football. The offense and defense seemingly refuse to show up on the same day, and kicker Evan McPherson just hasn’t been “Money Mac.”

So, what’s the play? I’ll ride with the better quarterback on the more desperate team playing at home.

Why Brooke picked the Chargers: If there's one positive Saints fans can hang their hats on right now, it's that Alvin Kamara will be in town through 2026 after signing an extension this week. Unfortunately, that's about where the good news stops. Derek Carr likely won't be back for this game. New Orleans has lost five straight, averaging just 17.2 points in the process. This production feels almost inevitable to happen again, with the Chargers fielding the NFL's best scoring defense (13.8 points per game). In fact, Los Angeles is the only team this season to allow 20 or fewer points in each game. I guess the Saints, who have allowed north of 30 points per game since Week 3, can feel optimist about the Bolts' own scoring struggles. Justin Herbert and friends made just one trip to the red zone last week, notching five field goals in the 17-15 loss to Arizona, and Los Angeles' average of 17.7 points per game is tied for 25th in the league. If there was ever a game for L.A. to get right offensively, it was last week against an Arizona club that had allowed 33 points per game over its three prior contests. If there's a second option, it's this week.

Why Ali picked the Bills: Mike Macdonald’s defense answered the call in resounding fashion last Sunday in Atlanta, forcing three takeaways (including a critical strip-sack score) and limiting the Falcons to just 14 points after giving up a staggering 35.7 average over their previous three games -- all losses. They’ll need to build on that performance against a Bills team that just hung 389 yards and 34 unanswered points on the NFL’s top-ranked defense. Unlike Atlanta, which has been generous with the football this season, Buffalo ranks first in giveaways (two) and second in turnover margin (+10). The Bills are a disciplined team, hell-bent on winning the line of scrimmage and eliminating big plays -- which should be much easier to do if DK Metcalf (knee) is unavailable. And while some folks might want to make a big deal out of the time-zone change and travel distance Buffalo will have to deal with this weekend, I’m not convinced either will matter. Sure, this will be Josh Allen’s first NFL game in Seattle, but he’s a cool 5-1 for his career in games played west of Kansas. He’s also had his way with the NFC in recent years, winning as many games against the conference as Geno Smith since the start of the 2021 season (13-3 vs. 13-14). As impressive as the Seahawks looked last time out, the Bills have the edge in too many areas (a lot of four- and five-star ratings for Buffalo in the NFL Pro matchup comparison …) for me to pick against them.

Why Dan picked the Bears: Uncertainty about Jayden Daniels’ status (due to a rib injury) pushes me in the direction of the Bears. Yes, I know backup Marcus Mariota had no trouble slicing through the Panthers’ defense for six straight scoring drives when he came on in relief of Daniels last week. I also know Carolina ranks 31st in defensive DVOA, while Chicago ranks seventh and is getting at least a little bit healthier in the secondary after being badly banged up there heading into the bye. Meanwhile, the Commanders have allowed 12 passing TDs (28th in the NFL), a 70.2 completion percentage (27th) and a 107.4 passer rating (30th). The blueprint for beating the Bears is out there (SEE: Texans in Week 2). If Dan Quinn can scheme up a pass rush that beats up on a shaky offensive line, we’ve seen what happens when Caleb Williams is forced to spend all game running for his life, and it’s not pretty. This feels like more of a coin flip if Daniels plays and is his usual electric self, but I’m going to place my trust in a Chicago defense that has yet to allow more than 21 points in a game this season.

Why Tom picked the Broncos: This is the kind of game that makes me slightly squeamish, only because one side seems like such an obvious choice that paranoia begins to creep into the picture. Whenever I'm overly confident about a pick, I worry that any-given-Sunday-style madness is about to hit. How could this choice go wrong? Maybe Bryce Young makes a heroic return to the field, becoming the first QB this season to throw multiple TD passes in the same game against the Broncos despite having only hit that benchmark twice before in his career. Or a Panthers defense that gives up 162.1 rushing yards per game finds the gumption to stop Denver's 13th-ranked ground attack (124.1 average yards). The Broncos' biggest actual vulnerability is their passing game, one of the few in the NFL that has been less productive (169.9 passing yards per game, 29th in the NFL) than the Panthers' (172.6, 28th). It's just hard to imagine that will matter much the way Denver's D has been suffocating opponents. I guess I have to get comfortable with the gimme here.

Why Brooke picked the Chiefs: The Chiefs haven't looked like a team going for a three-peat. But let's not forget how many times Tom Brady's Patriots looked so-so early in the season only for them to be playing for the Lombardi in February. That's the same song and dance for Kansas City in 2024. It's true that Patrick Mahomes has career lows in essentially all passing categories outside of completion percentage (career-high 67.9) through seven games. That doesn't make me trust him any less. The Chiefs' offense is slowly getting things figured out, and the trade for DeAndre Hopkins should prove huge once he gets acclimated there. There are some things to like about Las Vegas. Tight end Brock Bowers is a beast; the Raiders have found something offensively when force-feeding the rookie. Maxx Crosby should also wreak some havoc in the backfield. But Las Vegas is no match for Steve Spagnuolo's defense -- nor Mahomes and Co., even if they are still trying to get all of their ducks in a row. I'm not even entertaining the idea of a trap game, so y'all can stop that thinking right now. To 7-0 they go.

Why Dan picked the 49ers: I don’t blame you if you’re thinking, Which team am I supposed to trust here? Two supposed NFC contenders are now just desperate for a win to avoid leaving Week 8 with a losing record. Both squads have had injury woes, but Kyle Shanahan’s offense has been hit particularly hard, with Brandon Aiyuk out for the season and George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings missing practice on Wednesday. As for Dallas, Micah Parsons is supposed to be a game-time decision. For all its problems, San Francisco can still run the ball (ranking seventh in rushing offense) and play respectable defense (sixth in defensive DVOA) for the most part. The same cannot be said for the Cowboys, who rank last in rushing offense and 29th in defensive DVOA. Those gaps are too wide for me to pick against the 49ers at home. Unfortunately, a matchup that looked worthy of prime time heading into the season has lost a lot of its luster.

UPDATE: Jennings and Parsons were ruled out on their teams' injury reports Friday. Kittle and Samuel were listed as questionable by the 49ers.

MONDAY, OCT. 28

Why Gennaro picked the Steelers: In a quarterback league, it’s tempting to analyze EVERYTHING through the prism of that particular position. But in this here blurb, I’d like to flip the script. Well, kind of. Instead of exploring the potential impact of Russell Wilson and Daniel Jones, let’s discuss the potential impact on Russell Wilson and Daniel Jones. Because this prime-time tilt arguably features the two most impactful defenders in football today: Giants NT Dexter Lawrence and Steelers OLB T.J. Watt.

How do you like your game-wrecking: screaming off the edge or bulldozing right up the gut? Lawrence does the latter, as a 6-foot-4, 340-pound force of nature. Not only does “Sexy Dexy” grade out as PFF’s top interior defender against the run, but he leads the NFL with nine sacks. That kind of quarterback carnage is extremely rare for a true nose tackle. Not to be outdone, Watt boasts the highest PFF run-defense grade in the entire league, as well as an uncanny ability to create game-changing plays. The edge-rushing menace turns the ball over with absurd frequency.

At the moment, Lawrence is doubling up Watt in the sack department, but T.J.’s total won’t stay at 4.5 for long. With left tackle Andrew Thomas out for the season, New York's bookends are ripe for the whipping. To wit: Philadelphia racked up eight sacks in a 28-3 beatdown of Big Blue this past Sunday. How much havoc will Watt wreak on Monday night? A touch more than Lawrence, as I predict Pittsburgh to prevail in a defensive struggle.

THURSDAY'S GAME

Why Tom picked the Vikings: I'm buying into the Vikes as Legitimate Contenders, so I'm picking them to pass a key Legitimate Contender Test: bouncing back from a hard-fought divisional loss by taking a tough-but-winnable road game on a short week. Sean McVay might have the offensive acumen to counter Brian Flores' defense, but he doesn't have Jared Goff under center anymore. As the NFL Daily recap crew pointed out, and as Gennaro predicted he would last week, McVay's old QB helped Detroit become one of the few teams to succeed against Flores by thriving against the blitz. Matthew Stafford, by contrast, is performing worse than Goff against the blitz this season in several categories, including completion rate (64 percent for Stafford, 76.3 percent for Goff), TD-to-INT ratio (1:1 to 4:1) and passer rating (83.9 to 133.3). Getting Cooper Kupp (and Puka Nacua?) on the field again should give Stafford a boost, but I'll go with Flores getting back on track in L.A. to help former McVay assistant Kevin O'Connell hand his old boss an L.

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