Week 9 NFL picks: Texans to upset Jets on 'Thursday Night Football'? Lions or Packers in NFC North bout?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 9 NFL picks below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 31 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * -- Pick flipped after publishing.
3. \\ -- Final score prediction changed after publishing.

THURSDAY, OCT. 31

Why Gennaro picked the Jets: There’s no sugarcoating it: This has been a nightmare season for the Jets. Having dropped five straight games, Gang Green has frantically pulled every lever available trying to break the losing spell. But despite firing the head coach, making the blockbuster trade and resolving the lingering contract dispute, New York just keeps hurtling down the path to playoff elimination -- something this franchise is quite familiar with, owning the NFL’s longest active postseason drought at 13 seasons.

So, with the 6-2 Texans hitting MetLife Stadium on Halloween night, why not predict another horror show for the home team? Because I’m increasingly frightened by the plight of C.J. Stroud.

Stroud continues to perform at a high level, which is a testament to his preternatural ability, seeing how the second-year pro is playing in an environment that would break most quarterbacks. WR1 Nico Collins remains on injured reserve, while WR2 Stefon Diggs just suffered a season-ending injury. And yet, the battered receiving corps isn’t even my biggest concern -- not when the offensive line is operating as a sieve. Stroud has been pressured an NFL-high 124 times this season, per Next Gen Stats. In related news, the Jets rank sixth with a QB pressure percentage of 38.3.

At 2-6, New York might be a dead team walking. But isn't Halloween the perfect night to back the zombie?

SUNDAY, NOV. 3

Why Tom picked the Falcons: I kind of can't believe it, but I feel safer with the team fronted by Kirk Cousins, a 36-year-old statue one year removed from tearing his Achilles, than the one led by Dak Prescott, a star-caliber QB in his prime. And it's not like the Falcons (the only winning team with a negative point differential heading into Week 9) are a model of dependability; they're just that much deeper and more well-rounded than the Cowboys. Five Falcons have logged 29-plus catches this season, compared to two Cowboys. Atlanta can run the ball, putting up 4.7 rushing yards per attempt (tied for 10th-most in the NFL) -- almost exactly what Dallas gives up on average (4.8 rushing yards allowed, tied for sixth-most in the league). And the Falcons have the pieces in the secondary (A.J. Terrell, Jessie Bates III) to slow CeeDee Lamb, which is basically the same thing as slowing the entire Dallas offense. Whether or not Micah Parsons or any of the other injured Cowboys make it back for this one, the Falcons have too much working in their favor.

Why Ali picked the Ravens: Is Denver for real? That’s the question that kept surfacing as I pored over the NGS data, NFL Pro comparisons, NFL Research packet, etc. The Broncos' defense ranks among the league’s best, Pat Surtain II is a superstar and Bo Nix seems to get better every week. Those things are undeniable. But the Broncos’ spot in the AFC standings -- above Baltimore -- is far less definitive, especially when you consider who they’ve played to this point. Despite having five wins, Denver has the lowest strength of victory (.275) of any of the 14 teams currently in the playoff picture. In fact, they have zero wins against teams that are currently above .500. The battle-tested Ravens, meanwhile, have the highest SOV (.564) within the playoff field, and the second-highest in the league. Sure, Baltimore will have its head-scratching blips, like last weekend’s gut-wrencher in Cleveland or Week 2’s collapse to the Raiders at home. But that early loss to Vegas marked just the fourth time Lamar Jackson has dropped back-to-back games in his NFL career -- his .800 win percentage in starts following a loss (16-4) ranks second only to Patrick Mahomes (18-4, .818) in the Super Bowl era (min. 15 such starts) -- and he’s never done it twice in the same season. Something else he’s never done: Lose to a rookie quarterback. He’s a pristine 7-0 against first-year passers. So as salty as the Ravens must feel in letting last week’s divisional bout slip away, past precedent suggests they’ll rebound on Sunday. The only thing that gives me pause is the “DNP” next to Lamar’s name on Wednesday’s injury report. Disregard all of the above if No. 8 doesn’t suit up.

Why Brooke picked the Bills: Tyreek Hill was right. The Dolphins were back last week -- at least offensively. Tua Tagovailoa performed well in his return, protecting himself from big hits, moving the ball and helping Miami put up a season-high 27 points. The problem was a defense that gave up 21 second-half points to Arizona. Can that unit stall MVP candidate Josh Allen and a Bills team that has scored 31-plus points in five games this season? Not if Khalil Shakir, James Cook and Buffalo's tight end duo are in lockstep with Allen. Plus, we've seen promising play from rookie Keon Coleman recently, and Amari Cooper might not end up missing time for a wrist injury after all. The Bills are also getting Von Miller back from suspension. Sean McDermott has an extremely well-rounded group this season, with a +84 point differential (best in AFC, second-best in NFL) and league-leading +11 turnover differential. Miami's vibes are trending up, but Buffalo is cruising with no signs of slowing down. Not to mention, the Bills are averaging more than 38 points per game in three home games in 2024.

Why Dan picked the Saints: This might come as a surprise, but the Panthers have won a game more recently than the Saints, and Carolina hasn’t notched a W since Sept. 22. Since starting the season 2-0 with blowout victories over Carolina and Dallas, the Saints have faceplanted, with the fourth-largest drop in points per game from Weeks 1-2 (45.5) compared to the rest of the season (15.7) in NFL history. Dennis Allen does have one thing going for him, though, as he’s expecting to get his QB1 back this week, with Derek Carr recovering from his oblique injury. It also helps that he’ll be playing against a squad with the worst point differential (-147) through eight games by any team since the 2019 Dolphins (-153). The Panthers are on pace to allow the second-most points per game in a season in the Super Bowl era, so this is pretty much the softest landing possible for Carr in his return. Allen’s defense has had its own massive problems of late, but the Panthers will be starting Bryce Young -- he of the league-worst 59.8 percent completion rate and 71.4 passer rating since 2023 -- for the second week in a row and just traded away their leading receiver. If the Saints lose on Sunday, they can officially start planning for next season.

Why Gennaro picked the Bengals: The first player to be franchise-tagged last February, Tee Higgins is the only player still on the tag today. While the seven other taggees ultimately reached long-term deals, Higgins did not, entering this season on a one-year, $21.8 million tender.

So, less than five months from free agency, how is the contract year going for the Bengals wide receiver?

Well, Higgins just missed his third game of the season due to injury. Not ideal. Then again, the 25-year-old’s value appears plain as day when you compare how a purported contender operates with and without him. Just look at this (overly) simple comparison of basic statistics from this season:

• Bengals with Tee: 3-2 record, 28.6 ppg, 355.6 ypg.
• Bengals without Tee: 0-3 record, 17.3 ppg, 274.7 ypg.

With that in mind, Higgins’ status for Sunday looms large. Unfortunately, at publishing, Tee’s quad remains a question mark. Listed as a DNP for Wednesday’s practice, Higgins reportedly did some side work with trainers. Given that uncertainty, what compels me to back the Bengals? Joe Burrow’s urgency -- calling this game a “must-win” -- is comforting. As is the Raiders’ generosity with the football (SEE: NFL-high 17 turnovers, with 11 coming in the current four-game losing streak). Not to mention, Las Vegas doesn't have the ground game to exploit Cincinnati's porous run defense. And you have to believe Cincy will win at least one home game this season, right? Fifth time’s the charm?

Why Tom picked the Browns: Two weeks ago, it would have been easy to pick the Chargers, a relatively stable outfit with a high-ish floor and a low-ish ceiling, to outlast Cleveland, which had basically been turned into a cupcake by dreadful quarterbacking. This past Sunday, Jameis Winston changed everything by playing like a star -- check that, by playing better (115.3 passer rating) than a league-average QB in 2024 (92.4 passer rating). From Week 1 to Week 7, with Deshaun Watson as their starter, the Browns generated 4.0 yards per play (32nd in the NFL) and 15.4 first downs per game (31st). In Week 8, Cleveland put up a much healthier 6.1 yards per play, totaling 22 first downs, with Winston averaging 8.1 yards per throw -- nearly 3 yards more than Watson had this season (5.3) before going down with a torn Achilles. Interestingly, Justin Herbert appears to have had his own mini-revival, upping his yards-per-throw mark to 8.9 over the past two games after averaging 6.5 in Weeks 1 through 5. It does not take much imagination to conjure images of Winston tossing backbreaking turnovers, setting up Herbert to put the Browns' defense on its heels. I just feel like we almost need to throw out the tape of Cleveland prior to Week 8, opening up the possibility that the Browns win two in a row for the first time since last December.

Why Ali picked the Commanders: I was very tempted to go with the Giants at home in this one. Not (only) because the Bears fan in me is still moderately annoyed by last week’s Hail Mary fiasco, (though that was more Chicago’s undoing than anything else), but because Washington’s defensive turnaround has seemed a little too good to be true (not unlike Sunday’s miraculous finish). The Commanders have limited four of their previous five opponents to 15 points or fewer, with Baltimore (30 points) the clear outlier. But, as you can see, all four of those teams rank in the bottom-half of the league in offensive production this season:

• Week 4: Cardinals | OPPG: 20.3 (21st); YPG: 338.5 (12th)
• Week 5: Browns | OPPG: 15.4 (30th); YPG: 272.3 (31st)
• Week 7: Panthers | OPPG: 15.5 (T-28th); YPG: 281.9 (29th)
• Week 8: Bears | OPPG: 21.1 (17th); YPG: 302.3 (27th)

Looking up the Giants' ranking dampened my interest in Brian Daboll’s group. The G-Men rank 31st in offensive points per game and 26th in yards per game. It gets worse: Daniel Jones hasn’t thrown or rushed for a touchdown in his previous six home starts -- all losses -- per NFL Research. (Sunday will mark 672 days since he last hit paydirt at MetLife.) But wait, there’s more bad: The Giants could be without breakout RB Tyrone Tracy, who’s in concussion protocol. So barring a historic performance from Malik Nabers, or a bad Hail Mary Hangover* (it’s real!), we should expect to see more of the same from the Commanders' defense this week. Add in more of the same from their offense -- particularly their brutally efficient run game -- and the pendulum swings just a bit too far in Washington's direction.

*The last four teams to win on a Hail Mary lost their next game (includes the Vikings’ loss in the 2017 NFC Championship Game).

Why Dan picked the Patriots: These are two bad teams, but one of them has entered a historic level of weird bad. The Titans have the league’s No. 1 total defense (allowing 265.4 yards per game), but the 1-6 record is the worst through eight weeks by the top-ranked total defense since 1970. So, they have the stingiest defense when it comes to yardage, but they allow 28 points per game -- tied for 29th -- which would be the lowest scoring rank by the No. 1 total defense in NFL history. Now, I thought things would improve for Brian Callahan’s squad with Mason Rudolph starting over the banged-up Will Levis in the last two games. The Titans are averaging 100 more yards per game with Rudolph than they did with Levis. That seems great, right? Thing is, they are scoring 7.2 fewer points per game with Rudolph than they did with Levis. Maybe that doesn’t matter as much because Levis could return this week. Then again, Levis leads the league with two giveaways per game. The Patriots have their own problems, and Tennessee has advantages in the trenches to expose them. I’m going to need to see the Titans be competitive again before I can feel comfortable picking them to win a game, though.

Why Brooke picked the Bears: Chicago is looking to get rid of the bad taste in its mouth from last week's Hail Mary loss, which was especially painful after the Bears took a late lead, with the defense having held Washington's No. 1 scoring offense to four field goals prior to that final play. Chicago's D is the real deal, allowing 21 or fewer points in each of its seven games, and should handle Kyler Murray and Co. Yes, the Cardinals have started to click offensively when getting Marvin Harrison Jr. involved regularly, relying on Murray's play-extending ability and leaning on James Conner to sustain drives and wear down defenses. But Arizona has trailed entering the fourth quarter in seven of its eight games. If it finds itself in the same situation Sunday, I don't expect Chicago's top-five scoring defense to let down this time. That said, the Bears' offense must show up. It helps that it'll face a bottom-10 scoring and total defense. D'Andre Swift and the Caleb Williams-Cole Kmet connection are the answers right now for Chicago. Swift has posted 100-plus scrimmage yards and at least one TD in each of his last four games, while Kmet has caught 27 of 30 targets for 303 yards and three TDs this season, generating the third-most receiving expected points added among tight ends, per Next Gen Stats. This is the week Chicago earns its first road win of 2024.

Why Gennaro picked the Eagles: Because Doug Pederson’s former team is better than Doug Pederson’s current team. That’s the simple answer. A slightly more nuanced explanation: I just don’t see the Jaguars stopping the Eagles.

Eight weeks into the season, Jacksonville ranks dead last in defensive DVOA. The Jaguars aren’t great against the run, having allowed 150-plus rushing yards in two of the past three weeks, but they’re certifiably awful against the pass. Opposing quarterbacks are completing 70.4 percent of throws at 8.1 yards per attempt vs. Ryan Nielsen’s unit, churning out a sparkling 111.8 passer rating. Jacksonville has given up an NFL-high 17 touchdown passes while snagging just two interceptions.

Now the Jaguars’ disastrous defense faces an Eagles offense that has rounded into form since Nick Sirianni rounded off his dome. OK, maybe the current three-game win streak is more tied to the return of star receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but whatever the case, Philly’s attack is cooking. Saquon Barkley has been electric all season, averaging a robust 5.9 yards per carry, while Jalen Hurts recently traded out turnovers (seven in the first four games) for touchdowns (nine total in the last three games).

Long story short: Philly’s poised to play the role of unstoppable force against Jacksonville’s highly movable object.

Why Tom picked the Lions: The deeper I got into writing this blurb, the more I felt pulled toward the Packers. The Lions can't keep rolling forever, and Sunday's showdown in Green Bay -- their second roadie against an NFC North contender in 15 days after a narrow Week 7 win over Minnesota -- looms as a possible letdown game. Green Bay has been nearly as hot as Detroit, having last lost in September. And while I feel better about the Pack's chances of exploiting the league's 27th-ranked passing defense if Jordan Love is able to take the field, they have proven to be a tough out even with Malik Willis under center. So why ignore these alarm bells (and Jared Goff's rolled ankle)? I'm probably a bit blinded by Detroit's recent dominance. There's also this: The Packers have scored 62 points this season off turnovers, the most in the NFL heading into Week 9, per NFL Research. But Goff and Co. have recorded just one turnover in their past five games and have five giveaways total, tied for fourth-least in the league. Green Bay did overcome Houston without turning the ball over in Week 7, but the Lions' offense poses a tougher threat than the Texans right now, and the degree of difficulty will only go up for the Packers if Jaire Alexander can't go. Counterintuitively, I'm extending Detroit's winning streak to six.

Why Brooke picked the Rams: There is an entirely different feeling around the Rams right now than there was two weeks ago. Suddenly one win back from first place in the division and coming off a statement victory over Minnesota, Los Angeles is a team no one should want to play, especially with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy. Since 2023, Matthew Stafford has 26 pass TDs and eight INTs in 13 games when both Kupp and Nacua play, and just five pass TDs to eight INTs in nine games when one or both do not play. I'm not confident Seattle's defense, which ranks in the bottom two in most categories since Week 4, can stop this trio. Add in Kyren Williams, and the 'Hawks could find themselves behind the 8-ball before too long. Seattle (1-4 over the last five weeks) could see DK Metcalf return after he missed last week with a knee injury, a promising development for an offense that was stuck in the mud without him. With both offenses capable of playing high-caliber football when healthy, it'll be up to the defenses to make timely plays. Right now, I have a little more trust in the Rams, who have not allowed more than 20 points in two games (both wins) since the bye week.

Why Ali picked the Colts: Joe Flacco has faced Brian Flores’ defense twice before, in 2020 and ‘21 while with the Jets, and neither of those starts ended in New York wins. But that was a (slightly) younger Joe Flacco, a castaway caught in QB purgatory -- no longer the face of a franchise and not yet a Comeback Player of the Year. The 2024 version, though, has been granted a new lease on football life, as a grizzled 39-year-old -- still boasting a live arm and coolness under pressure -- once again tasked with leading a playoff contender. Flacco, in his 17th season, has seen it all and been through it all, and now finds himself surrounded by arguably the best offensive supporting cast of his career. If the Colts’ O-line -- one of the league’s top units, but one that could be without starting LT Bernhard Raimann (concussion) -- can handle its business against a Vikings pass rush that took a step back last week, we should see a more balanced Indy attack with Flacco at the controls. Like the Lions and Rams before them, the Colts must flip the script on Minnesota’s aggressive defense, and keep that group off-kilter -- at least enough to compensate for Flacco’s lack of mobility and occasional YOLO ball. This should be a physical contest, with both teams striking from distance. Ultimately, I think the QB-change bump puts the Colts over in their first appearance on Sunday Night Football since Dec. 2022.

MONDAY, NOV. 4

Why Dan picked the Chiefs: There’s a large differentiator that stands out to me in this matchup when I compare the two defenses. The Bucs proved last week that they can still put points on the board even without the injured Mike Evans and Chris Godwin -- a testament to Baker Mayfield and Co.'s resilience -- but the defense let the team down once again, allowing 30-plus points for the third time in four weeks. They’ve given up a league-high 14 passing touchdowns and the second-most yards per attempt (8.7) of any team in that span (thanks in large part to having no answer for Kirk Cousins twice). On the other hand, the Chiefs have a defense that can make up for their offense’s shortcomings, which is why Kansas City has won 13 games in a row despite averaging 24.5 points per game during that stretch (third-fewest PPG by a team with a win streak of 13 or more games all time). Steve Spagnuolo’s D ranks among the top five in PPG allowed, total yards allowed per game and yards allowed per play. The Chiefs’ balance should win out here.

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