Which 3-2 teams will make NFL playoffs? Ravens and Packers promising; Steelers and Cowboys troubling

No need to belabor the lead. If Isaiah Likely's shoe was a half-size smaller and the Ravens didn't have a collective brain cramp for 10 minutes against Las Vegas, we'd be talking about Baltimore as one of the two undefeated teams in the NFL, and a favorite to get to the Super Bowl. In a rare case, the Ravens' record doesn't say who they are. Lamar Jackson continues to play at an MVP level. The offense is starting to find a balance with Derrick Henry, a development that should only increase in comfort as the season progresses. The defense has holes, but can force big swings (SEE: this past Sunday's game-changing interception in Cincinnati). Ranking No. 1 in offensive DVOA and second in EPA per play (0.16), Baltimore has a road-grading offense that can plow through modern defenses. And when in a bind, you can always count on Jackson to melt your brain with a ridiculous play. 

The Ravens have played the most difficult opening slate, per Pro Football Focus. They came out the other side with a couple of losses to begin the season, but three straight wins have John Harbaugh's team on a path toward the AFC North title. 

The Packers overcame an early bump in the road -- Jordan Love's knee injury -- thanks to some brilliant Matt LaFleur coaching. The home loss to Minnesota stung, but given that it came with Love not looking entirely right in his first game back, I'll give that half a pass. The quarterback has experienced a serpentine start to the season. He's tossed at least one INT in each contest, including a cringy pick-six this past Sunday in Los Angeles. However, he's also tossed in some gorgeous shots, including a looping dime to Jayden Reed in the win over the Rams. If Love smooths out his play, the Packers could go streaking, as they did to close 2023.

The same positive attributes that Green Bay entered the season with remain. The defense has been better under Jeff Hafley, with ball magnet Xavier McKinney on his way to All-Pro honors. The ground game is solid behind Josh Jacobs, and the Packers' diverse pass-catching corps, including surging tight end Tucker Kraft, has enough weapons to overcome absences. It's a well-built roster that should stand the test of a long season. 

I -- perhaps, like you, reader -- cannot believe I'm willing to put this much faith in a Falcons squad with an epic history of faltering. Few clubs can match Atlanta's ability to turn a pleasant scenic stroll down a sunbathed path into a harrowing fear flick titled Horror Road. 

Kirk Cousins' career path suggests this will be the windiest of roads for the Falcons. At times, the quarterback suffers from checkdown paranoia in critical spots. In others, like Week 5, he darts pigskins into tight windows to create game-winning plays. My personal consternation about his Week 1 play seems overblown the further we get past that wretched performance. Cousins might not be able to drive the ball as well after his Achilles injury, but his trust in his playmakers and ability to get the ball to the open man can keep the Flacons in games. Cousins will always play some of the most hectic games. It's his nature. 

By placing Atlanta here, I'm not just betting on Cousins, but Raheem Morris' defense and the big names coming to life: Jessie Bates III, Justin Simmons, A.J. Terrell, Matthew Judon, Grady Jarrett. There is enough pedigree here to make the Falcons formidable. Logging back-to-back division wins didn't hurt, either. 

The past two weeks have been painful for Josh Allen as the offense has cratered. Buffalo went from averaging 37.3 points per game in the first three tilts to scoring 30 total points over the past two weeks combined. Dr. Jekyll never had such drastic mood swings. The Bills offense went from “EVERYBODY EATS” to “Where's the beef?” in a fortnight. Buffalo's struggles come partly from the lack of separation generated by the wide receivers, which we anticipated entering the season. On Sunday, the Texans essentially dared Allen to beat them deep. He couldn't. The Bills must lean on the ground attack and work off play action to stay in games. And Allen has to hit his deep shots with more regularity.

As dismal as it's looked of late, Sean McDermott's club remains the least chaotic in a blustery AFC East. For all his game-management faults, McDermott's defense seems to stand on its head each week despite a litany of injuries. In Week 5, the Bills had no business keeping the game close, as Allen completed just 30 percent of his passes. And yet, two takeaways gave Buffalo a chance. The coach needs to be better at managing close games -- something that's been said for years in Western New York -- but there is enough meat on the bone for Allen and the Bills to get back on track. 

I agree with Todd Bowles that the Buccaneers can be a "very good football team" if they don't shoot themselves in the foot. Baker Mayfield has been sensational in Tampa yet again, flashing the ability to make plays inside and outside of the pocket. He has weapons that few defenses can match in receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Rookie RB Bucky Irving adds an intriguing element to the offense. Like most in the NFL, the defense is up and down, but this Bucs unit can stuff the run and make plays. Third-year CB Zyon McCollum has been a revelation early opposite Jamel Dean, and rookie Tykee Smith has slid nicely into the nickel. It's a well-balanced roster, and Bowles has managed his way through the first part of the schedule well. 

My biggest trepidation in backing the Bucs is the lack of depth. We saw Detroit take advantage of Luke Goedeke's absence at right tackle. The defense is thin on the edge and can get run on when Vita Vea is out. Antoine Winfield Jr.'s foot injury has deprived the D of a massive playmaker. The bet here is that Tampa gets healthy down the stretch, and in the meantime, Mayfield keeps the Bucs afloat as they enter a thorny stretch of games against New Orleans, Baltimore, Atlanta, Kansas City and San Francisco. Make it through that distressing path alive, and things lighten up after the Week 11 bye. 

I hate to put Geno Smith on this side of our proverbial Mendoza line. The quarterback has been sensational for the bulk of the first five weeks. He nearly led comebacks the past two games as the defense and special teams faltered. Smith has been fearless behind a banged-up, struggling offensive line. The QB makes ridiculous throws on a weekly basis and has done damage with his legs. Writing off Geno is a perilous frolic. 

However, the Seahawks' fatal flaw is a defense that can't get stops. Mike Macdonald's crew has been rolled over the past two weeks. With the injuries piling up -- including Uchenna Nwosu going on injured reserve -- it's hard to be hopeful that the issues will be resolved. Giving up a perfect game to Jared Goff on the road is one thing. It's quite another to get steamrolled for 420 yards and 24 first downs by Daniel Jones’ Giants at home. After the 3-0 start, the operative narrative suggested it was a mirage built upon the corpses of less-than opponents. That plotline looks true after back-to-back losses. Thursday night's division bout with San Francisco could decide whether Seattle is spiraling fast or I've overreacted to two bad weeks. 

The Steelers are the inverse of Seattle: a rockin' defense with a flimsy offense. 

T.J. Watt is a lathered-up wrecking ball off the edge, Cam Heyward remains a force in the interior, safety duo Minkah Fitzpatrick and DeShon Elliot provide playmaking, Elandon Roberts is a missile, and Joey Porter Jr. is a growing weapon outside. However, injuries have begun to siphon off some of the potency. First, Alex Highsmith (groin) went down, then replacement Nick Herbig (hamstring) followed. Allowing the Cowboys to mow their way down the field with Rico Dowdle and Jalen Tolbert this past Sunday night wasn't a Steel Curtain showing. 

The defensive injuries are only part of the story. The real issue for Mike Tomlin's team is an offense that, at its best, has been a helter-skelter operation and, at its worst, an impotent sloth. Pittsburgh's 18.4 points per game in 2024 is the lowest among the 15 teams above .500 through five weeks. Justin Fields has avoided a turnover barrage but also has three games with fewer than 160 passing yards. In the year of our lord 2024, that's not going to get it done. Fields has struggled to play within the offense. Sunday night, he was pressing with things not going well. It's quite the indictment when you make a Cowboys defense missing its top three edge players look like the '86 Bears. Could Russell Wilson jump-start a floundering offense and get Tomlin's team back to the postseason? Maybe. But we haven't seen Mr. Unlimited in real action since Christmas Eve. Until Arthur Smith's offense becomes more than an inefficient rushing operation with the occasional completed pass, I can't buy Pittsburgh as a legitimate threat. 

I am prepared to be skewered by the Cowboys mob for placing their beloved star in this section. But even the most ardent buffs must have asked themselves at some point over the past five weeks what exactly their team does well outside of the Dak Prescott-CeeDee Lamb connection and Brandon Aubrey's kicking. 

The defense has been skewered like a pig roast. Mike Zimmer hasn't fixed the leaky run D that plagued Dallas last season. Oh, there have been flashes from DeMarvion Overshown and Jourdan Lewis. Still, with Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence dealing with injuries, the floodgates could open as they face more potent offenses. 

It's a good thing Jerry Jones paid Prescott and Lamb this offseason because it's terrifying to think about this club sans that connection. The running game is a whisper. The non-Lamb pass attack is more inconsistent than a toddler's mood. The offensive line was already blah and is now dealing with injuries. Dak and CeeDee might be enough to beat a punchless Browns squad, hold off the Giants, and outscore a fruitless Steelers offense, but what else is there for Dallas to hang its 10-gallon hat on? Settling for Aubrey's booted bombs is entertaining for only so long. 

Caleb Williams has improved weekly, looking more comfortable behind his Swiss cheese O-line with each passing snap. The rookie has done a better job diagnosing defenses, working through his progressions and getting the ball to his playmakers. Williams has a better feel for when he can let the play unfold and when he needs to make magic than he did in Week 1. The obvious developmental strides are an extremely encouraging sign in the Windy City. With a good defense, an improved run game and Williams' continued refinement, the Bears should be competitive. 

I wanted to push Chicago up this list, but two things held me back: 

1) The Bears' three wins came versus clubs that are a combined 3-11. Beating bad teams is what keeps you in contention. Chicago has taken care of that business, but the schedule ramps up. Per PFF's metrics, the Bears enjoyed the second-easiest schedule in the NFL to date. They are currently projected to have the third-toughest remaining slate. Can Caleb continue to make strides behind an iffy offensive line against teams with more potent pass rushes? Can the defense overcome if the offense dips? 

2) I don't really trust the coaching staff. Matt Eberflus runs an excellent defense. But his game management leaves me wanting, and I don't trust him to hit the right buttons if things slide. And then there is the lack of creativity with Shane Waldron's offense. It's been a bland operation for weeks. It took facing a JV-level Panthers defense to show signs of a spark. When the competition gets stiffer, will Waldron have answers for his rookie QB? 

As I've been saying since Week 3, Vance Joseph's defense has been sensational. The blitz-happy brigade has wrecked opponents. Zach Allen has been an absolute menace -- one the rest of the football world needs to start taking note of. The Broncos' bulldozer has generated 27 QB pressures through five weeks, tied for third-most in the NFL and most among all defensive tackles, per Next Gen Stats (Chris Jones is No. 2 at 21). Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss form a dynamite CB tandem. They've given Geno Smith his worst day of the season and bamboozled Baker Mayfield. But the rest of their schedule has been light on potent offenses. How will they hold up as the competition ramps up? 

The more significant concern is Sean Payton's offense, which has improved with rookie Bo Nix under center but remains a difficult watch. Sunday's contest against the Raiders was a perfect example. The defense made plays to win the game, while the offense went 3-for-12 on third downs and put up 289 total yards. Nix has flashed but remains a work in progress, particularly with his field-stretching accuracy.

We knew entering the season that the offense would be a struggle. Denver has stacked three straight wins on the back of fine defensive performances. It's reminiscent of last year's five-game win streak in the middle of the season before the bottom fell out. It's on Payton to kick his offense into gear to avoid a similar fate in 2024.