Four headline trades went down Thursday -- Albert Haynesworth to the Patriots, Reggie Bush to the Dolphins, Kevin Kolb to the Cards and Chad Ochocinco to the Pats. Which of the four will be a bust?
Kevin Kolb will be a bust in Arizona. Even though he has the potential to be a solid starting quarterback, he will be hard pressed to live up to the enormous expectations.
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</table> His five-year,$63 million contract suggests he will become an elite quarterback, but the track record of former Eagle QBs in new locations is not good (A.J. Feeley, Donovan McNabb and Jeff Garcia) and that leads me to believe the system produces the results instead of the player. In Arizona, he leaves that system and I'm not sure he has enough ability to be highly productive in another scheme. Ken Whisenhunt and Co. certainly hope I'm wrong, but I don't see Kolb as a big-time quarterback.
Haynesworth will end up as the biggest bust. Two reasons: 1) His time in Washington was so terrible, he would need a minimum of two Pro Bowl appearances in New England to balance out people's opinion of him, which leads me to ... 2) I'm not sure he likes football as much as one needs to have two Pro Bowl seasons. When you talk with Haynesworth, you can tell he's a fun-loving guy with varied interests. Some people's reaction to huge sums of money is to indulge those interests to the point of losing passion for the aspect of your life that gave you that earning power in the first place. Still, the Pats are buying low, so it won't be much of a loss if he fails and a bonus if he contributes. And if he dominates, Bill Belichick will continue to enjoy his reputation as the greatest rehabilitator since Betty Ford.
Dolphins fans need to temper their enthusiasm for Reggie Bush because he is not going to be an every-down back. Bush has stayed healthy for a full 16-game schedule once in his career, way back in his rookie season. The best you can hope for Bush is the same that you got from him in New Orleans -- matchup problems for the defense. Bush can be a good complement to rookie Daniel Thomas, who is going to become the workhorse of that offense. Of course, the most disappointed will be Kim Kardashian who must now really be kicking herself because of the missed opportunity of having a reality TV show based in Miami.
I'm not sure this counts as bust, considering how little the Pats gave up for him, but I just don't know how much they're going to get out of Chad Ochocinco. I'm sure he will tone down his act, and the reality shows and tweeting and all of that. That's not the issue. I'm just not sure he's going to be all that productive. Will he run precise routes and stay focused? Will he earn Tom Brady's trust? At this stage of his career, can you really look at him as a vertical element at all? Could they have done better with a younger, bargain free agent like Mike Sims-Walker? And there's always the potential that the Bill Belichick/Ochocinco marriage becomes as fraught with peril as some expect. It could implode.
The most obvious response is Kevin Kolb, but I'm a little worried about Reggie Bush down in Miami. Yes, he's a playermaker. Yes, he's versatile and can be a nightmare for defenses. But he's also the football version of the Elijah Price character (Mr. Glass) in the movie Unbreakable. Over the last four years, Bush has missed a combined 20 games due to a variety of ailments. Sure, playing on grass instead of turf should help keep his knees healthier. But if Bush couldn't make a big impact under offensive whiz kid Sean Payton in New Orleans, I don't think he's a lock to suddenly reach his potential under Tony Sparano. Beware, South Beach.
Kevin Kolb is the biggest risk. The entire Cardinals organization is tied to this deal. He just got paid like he is a winning QB and his 3-4 record as a starter with the Eagles could come back to haunt him and the team. Is he Scott Mitchell or Matt Schaub? I hope nobody is a bust but a QB is the most vulnerable to being tagged with that label. It will be interesting to see the parallels that are drawn between Kolb's career and Kyle Orton's, if he gets traded this summer.
Maybe I'm just too excited about football to be negative, but I don't think any of these moves will prove to be abject busts. If I have to choose one, though, I'll take Kevin Kolb. As I've previously written in this space, quarterbacks in Andy Reid's offense are always productive (see A.J. Feeley, Koy Detmer), so assuming Kolb is going to step in and do what Kurt Warner did a couple years ago is overly optimistic (especially considering Warner had Fitzgerald and Boldin and Breaston; Kolb has Fitz and ... and ... hmm). All that being said, the Cardinals are in the NFC West, aka the NFL's JV. In other words, he doesn't have to be good to go 8-8.