Thursday, Sep 01, 2016 04:30 PM

Wide receiver target distribution for all 32 teams

Matt Harmon

Opportunity is the name of the game in fantasy football. Talent matters, of course, but we want players who see a healthy volume of targets and touches to anchor our lineups, especially in daily fantasy. Every week in the second season of the "Opportunity Report," we'll look at all the passing targets for every NFL team and the percentage each player owns. Franchise will handle the backfield touches section this year and his season preview is already published.

Prior to the Week 1 kickoff, we'll look at the passing distribution from 2015 and decipher what might change in the target share for 2016.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals boast one of the NFL's strongest pass-catching corps, especially when you include David Johnson. Their top three receivers and Johnson accounted for 71.4 percent of Carson Palmer's passing targets in 2015. Expect that to at least hold, if not increase in 2016 with all four fully integrated into the game plan for 16 weeks. The tight end hasn't been a fixture in Bruce Arians' offenses in Arizona and that figures to be the case once again this year. You can fully expect David Johnson's share of the targets to increase. He owned a 16 percent share in five games he started at the end of last year, giving him a tremendous weekly floor projection.

The tricky part of this passing game will be projecting the target distribution for the three wideouts on a week-to-week and season-long basis. With all three of the receivers and Johnson demanding targets, it is hard to imagine any receiver seeing 25 percent or more of the team targets. From Weeks 13 to 17 when all four of those players were healthy and fully integrated into the offense, Michael Floyd owned the highest share with 23 percent despite playing fewer snaps than Larry Fitzgerald (19 percent) and John Brown (21 percent). The way Fitzgerald was used and the volume he lost during that stretch makes him a risky pick at his ADP. However, all three of these receivers will be candidates to finish in the top-10 weekly and it will come down to game-by-game matchups in projecting their outlooks.

Atlanta Falcons

Julio Jones shouldn't see much if any of his massive share of the team targets number decrease. He will still push to finish among the league leaders in that category. However, Atlanta's target distribution should lead us to be excited about Mohamed Sanu. Roddy White and Leonard Hankerson combined for 116 targets last season and neither are on the roster heading into 2016. Hankerson accumulated his 46 targets in just eight games with Atlanta before getting cut, putting him on a 92 season-end pace.

The Falcons paid big money to acquire Sanu's services in free agency, so whether you like the deal or not, they clearly have big plans for him. When Sanu saw 98 targets in 2014 with A.J. Green banged up, he finished as the WR30 in fantasy. We also know he has the ability to put up numbers if anything were to happen to Julio Jones and he would inherit a massive target load in that scenario. Sanu averaged 95 yards and a whopping 18 PPR points in the four games Green missed during the 2014 season. On pure opportunity-based reasons, Sanu makes for an excellent, unsexy, but safe late-round sleeper.

Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore's season-end target distribution underscores what a disaster this offense became after injuries struck. Look no further than the fact that running back Buck Allen and fullback Kyle Juszczyk finished in the top four most targeted players. Steve Smith owned a 23 percent share of the team targets in the first eight weeks and was on a 140-plus season-end pace. Unless he makes a miraculous comeback, he could see almost a 50 percent reduction in that number. Kamar Aiken is the most consistent of the other Baltimore receivers, but projecting him for 140 targets seems rich. However, he should clear 120 on an offense run by Marc Trestman that finishes in the top-16 in pass attempts annually.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills ranked 31st in pass attempts last year, which skews the percentage of team target rates for all of these players. The only fantasy relevant receiver on a weekly basis is Sammy Watkins, who owned a whopping 32 percent of the team targets from Week 9 on last year. Expect that market share to hold going forward after Watkins utterly dominated in the second half of 2015. Watkins is a complete route-runner but the Bills love to use him as a deep threat, and Tyrod Taylor had the third-highest average depth of aimed throw last season. Watkins' injury history is troubling but he's healthy after an offseason foot injury and has WR1 upside at a modest third-round asking price.

Carolina Panthers

Kelvin Benjamin is the wild card here as his return will certainly shake up this distribution. There is almost no chance he sees 140-plus targets again as the Panthers threw the ball more in his rookie year than any other with Cam Newton under center (still just 19th most in the NFL), but the question is whether other players eat into his market share. Benjamin has Cam Newton's eye and owned a 26 percent share of the targets as a rookie and Greg Olsen has 120-plus targets each of the last two years. Even in the over-inflated year of volume two years ago, the No. 2 receiver (Jerricho Cotchery) saw just 78 targets go his way.

Even if Benjamin dips down to 22 percent of the team targets, there is a lack of opportunity for other players. Therefore, it is hard to project Devin Funchess for a breakout season. Making matters cloudier, Ted Ginn still ran as the team's No. 2 wideout in the preseason. He won't see anywhere near the 97 targets he got last year, but he will still matter in this rotation. For Funchess to matter in fantasy, one of Benjamin or Olsen has to vastly underperform their ADP. Those scenarios are plausible, however, which makes Funchess a fine speculative grab in the late rounds. With more options than ever in this offense and the volume still in short supply, it's hard to find good reasons to take Kelvin Benjamin (4.01) or Greg Olsen (5.05) at their current ADPs.

Chicago Bears

In the nine games he played last season, Alshon Jeffery averaged a whopping 31 percent of the targets from Jay Cutler. When he's on the field Jeffery is as much of a target hog as there is in the NFL. Clearly, his hamstring issues keep him off the Tier 1 among wide receivers, but it is hard to not love early third-round ADP with the opportunity before him. Figuring Kevin White into this equation is tricky, especially if Zach Miller assumes the vast majority of Martellus Bennett's vacated 80 targets. The Bears finished just 26th in the NFL in pass attempts last year and there's just not a ton of volume for White to absorb unless he proves too good right off the bat.

Cincinnati Bengals

When both Jones and Sanu departed in free agency they took 30.7 percent of the team's 2015 passing targets with them. Last season was the first year where A.J. Green played 16 games and saw less than 30 percent of the team's targets. That will almost certainly reverse course this year and Green could get back to the 160 to 180 target level he held early in his career. In the two seasons he held that kind of volume he finished as the WR4 and WR5. Even if rookie Tyler Boyd and veteran addition Brandon LaFell make strong contributions there is almost no way Green sees the minuscule volume he received last year. We could easily be sitting on a career year for the elite receiver.

Cleveland Browns

What once seemed like a clear funnel offense between just rookie Corey Coleman (presumably assuming Travis Benjamin's departed volume) and Gary Barnidge now looks a bit more crowded with the emergence of Terrelle Pryor as a deep threat and Josh Gordon's return. Gordon (after his four-game suspension) and Coleman could now split up the departed targets of Benjamin and Brian Hartline, putting them in line for around 16 to 18 percent of the team targets apiece. This might make them both highly volatile plays on a weekly basis.

The real losers here might be holdovers Gary Barnidge and Duke Johnson, who looked like great high floor plays prior to the additions of talent at receiver. It's hard to imagine Johnson seeing any more than the 12.8 percent of the team targets he did last season. Barnidge could easily lose about 20 targets from his season-end total from 2015. Coleman and Gordon are far too talented to not demand the majority looks and even Pryor brings legit big-play appeal. Both Johnson and Barnidge look like major shy-away candidates at their seventh-round ADPs.

Dallas Cowboys

It's hard to take much from Dallas' 2015 distribution since Dez Bryant was compromised for the majority of the season. Back in 2014 he owned a 29 percent share of the team targets with Jason Witten coming in second at 19 percent before Terrance Williams with 14 percent. It would make sense for that to be the way it unfolds in 2016. The question is what kind of quality those passes will be with Dak Prescott under center to start the year.

Denver Broncos

Denver is one of the more highly concentrated passing offenses in the NFL. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders handled 52 percent of the team's looks in 2015. For that reason, it's hard to fret too much about their questionable options behind center as volume can save wideouts from poor quarterback play. The Broncos might run fewer plays and throw less overall in 2016 than they did in Peyton Manning's final year but that ownership of targets makes the receiver duo safe floor plays at their ADP. Virgil Green might figure into this equation as he ran exclusively with the first-team in the preseason and looked good. 12.8 percent of the team targets was a low mark last year for a Gary Kubiak tight end historically.

Detroit Lions

With 24 percent of the team targets gone to retirement with Calvin Johnson, there is a ton of opportunity up for grab in Detroit. Golden Tate could see more than the 128 targets he saw last season, for sure, but it's Marvin Jones who should absorb the vast majority of them. Jones is a prime breakout candidate this year and volume is a huge reason why.

Green Bay Packers

Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb combined for 51 percent of the team targets in 2014 when both were fully healthy and operational. Those two will once again lead this team in the passing pecking order and both should finish as top-15 receivers across all formats. The interesting option in this pass attack is Jared Cook.

If you project Cook for a 16.5 percent (the average of Jermichael Finley's two best seasons) level of market share on the Packers' 565 targets from last season that equals out to 93 targets. Just using Cook's rate stats (57 percent catch rate, 3.3 touchdown rate, 12.8 yards per reception) over the course of his career on that workload you get 53 catches, 678 yards and three touchdowns for a total of 85.8 standard fantasy points. That would have been the TE13 last season.

Houston Texans

The Houston wide receiver corps is much more crowded this season than in 2015. Both Will Fuller and Braxton Miller are just rookies but looked fantastic running with the first-team offense in the preseason. The team sunk draft capital into those two this year and will make use of them. Jaelen Strong also had a positive offseason and was a training camp star. For all those reasons and the addition of Lamar Miller with a commitment to the ground game, it's hard to imagine any scenario where DeAndre Hopkins sees 190-plus targets for a second consecutive season. With that in mind, he's a tough sell as a top-10 pick in fantasy leagues.

Indianapolis Colts

Donte Moncrief was on a 123-target season-end pace in games Luck played, with T.Y. Hilton maintaining a 148-target pace. That was with the now departed Coby Fleener and Andre Johnson absorbing 5.83 and 5.57 targets per game, respectively. Hilton and Moncrief combined for a 42 percent share of Luck's Week 1 through Week 9 targets. With the departure of the aforementioned two players and a severe lack of depth in the pass-catching corps beyond Phillip Dorsett and Dwayne Allen, the Moncrief and Hilton duo could push closer to a 50-percent share.

The Colts look like a candidate to lead the NFL in pass attempts, which will buoy the stock of all players involved. While the offense should be highly concentrated among the top two wideouts, Dorsett and Allen offer fine late-round appeal even if they only carve out small target shares.

Jacksonville Jaguars

There is little reason to imagine the Jaguars' target distribution experiences too much turnover. If Julius Thomas plays 16 games he will see a bump from 13 percent of the team targets, but expect him to eat into players like Bryan Walters or even Allen Hurns, not Allen Robinson. No one has been able to manage an explanation as to why the Jaguars would suddenly throw less to their star No. 1 wideout just for the sake of it. Robinson should be a lock for 25 percent or more of the team targets once again as their clear best player on offense. The question is more around their overall passing volume, which ranked 12th in the NFL in attempts last year. If the Jaguars improve as a defensive team and are more competitive, then they could conceivably throw less in 2016.

Kansas City Chiefs

Jeremy Maclin remains one of the best values in fantasy coming in with a strong 26 percent of the team targets in 15 games. The Chiefs will be without Justin Houston for at least the first portion of the season. Alex Smith averaged 20 more passing yards per game when Houston missed time in 2013. Maclin has more upside than given credit for at his ADP. While Albert Wilson and Chris Conley are skilled and intriguing, there just isn't enough volume behind Maclin and Travis Kelce for them to ascend in fantasy.

Los Angeles Rams

Beyond Tavon Austin, we aren't interested in this passing game for fantasy. However, one interesting note is that Jared Cook did take 75 targets with him to Green Bay. With that in mind, there will be some weeks when Lance Kendricks, or Tyler Higbee if he can usurp the job, matter in fantasy. They are at least worth monitoring.

Miami Dolphins

Rishard Matthews' departure opened up room for an outside receiver to ascend in this offense with 61 targets gone. Based on preseason and every bit of noise from the offseason that will be Kenny Stills, not DeVante Parker, at least to start the season. Neither one is worth anything more than an end-of-draft flier in typical redraft leagues. The question is whether Jarvis Landry loses any portion of the 28.6 percent of the team targets he saw last year. The offense needs an outside threat to emerge, but Ryan Tannehill just seems far too hardwired to look for Landry in the short areas of the field.

Minnesota Vikings

Losing Teddy Bridgewater hurts this team's passing efficiency, but if their backup quarterbacks hurt the team their overall volume could go up if they play in more catch-up situations. With Laquon Treadwell starting off slow, this aerial unit will flow through Stefon Diggs. Even with a backup quarterback under center he can breakout and repay his cheap ADP if he gets to at least 22 percent of the team targets. Diggs was on a 103-target pace after Week 4 last season and was on a run-heavy team. If the game scripts flip in Minnesota with poor quarterback play, it could absolutely benefit Diggs.

New England Patriots

There isn't a ton of room for newcomers in New England's offense. Martellus Bennett figures to see anywhere between 70 to 80 targets while taking Brandon LaFell's targets and eating into Danny Amendola's workload a significant amount. Other than that, we know where this offense flows.

New Orleans Saints

With Coby Fleener and Michael Thomas now in town and Willie Snead establishing himself as a tremendous asset to the offense, it's hard to project Brandin Cooks for any more targets than he saw last season. Now, 130-ish targets from Drew Brees in this offense are worth more than that volume level in other systems. However, taking a receiver in the top-15 at the position with that type of workload is a bit discomforting. Already a non-factor in the red zone, Cooks will need to continue to score touchdowns via long plays. He can certainly do that as one of the NFL's best deep threats, however, that will lead to major volatility in his scoring. Even during his torrid second-half stretch, Cooks still failed to clear 40 yards in three of his last eight games.

New York Giants

With Sterling Shepard set to absorb Rueben Randle's targets and some of Dwayne Harris' (and likely be more efficient with them), he is a clear sleeper in the mid-rounds. He's a threat for 80 catches as a rookie. However, there is still room for Odell Beckham to absorb even more volume and potentially push 180 targets for the first time in his career. The lack of a third receiver or established tight end leaves that possibility open. If he clears that target level, Beckham could score close to 20 touchdowns and be the highest scoring receiver in fantasy.

New York Jets

With Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker established as target hogs this offense flows through them. The team loves to spread the field but lacks a competent third receiver or established tight end. The Jets should once again have two running backs finish in the top-five most targeted players on the team. Matt Forte and Bilal Powell should be on the field at the same time often and will both repay their ADPs.

Oakland Raiders

Clive Walford is a popular sleeper pick at tight end, but it's hard to see where the targets are going to come from. Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper are one of the best duos in the NFL, so Walford won't take volume from them. He's best left on the waiver wire for now.

Amari Cooper is a player many are ready to tout as an explosive breakout pick but he's already priced in that range with an ADP of 2.10. In order for that to happen, he needs to flip target shares with Michael Crabtree. The veteran receiver should hand over the target leader role to Cooper, but his volume will not drastically reduce. He's too important and reliable. For that reason, it makes their ADP discrepancy of almost six whole rounds look quite confusing.

Philadelphia Eagles

The distribution here should not change much. Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz will pace this team in targets. However, the fast pace of Chip Kelly is gone so while the percentage stats might hold, there may be less raw targets to go around in 2016.

Pittsburgh Steelers

There is not nearly as much opportunity to go around in this offense as the public projects unless you're bold enough to assume Antonio Brown loses targets. Sammie Coates failed in his shot to usurp Markus Wheaton for the No. 2 role and is once again a backup. Meanwhile, former undrafted receiver Eli Rodgers ran exclusively with the first-team as a slot receiver. He could certainly assume some of Martavis Bryant's vacated targets along with Wheaton. In certain matchups, he will be a fine flier in daily fantasy.

San Diego Chargers

It's incredible that Keenan Allen played in just eight games but still held such a high share of the Chargers passing targets. Allen could threaten to lead the NFL in catches with such a locked-in share of the targets. Steve Johnson's injury also makes it clear that deep threat Travis Benjamin will push for at least a 15 percent share of the team targets. He will be a tough start every week, but is someone who can make your week when you find the right matchup.

San Francisco 49ers

Torrey Smith is the only player we can draft from this offense after Bruce Ellington went down with an injury. Even if the passes are terrible, he'll see 25 percent of the team targets. Anquan Boldin took 111 targets out the door and both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin cleared 120 targets under Chip Kelly. He'll be tough to trust on a weekly basis but is still a value at his modest ADP.

Seattle Seahawks

The big question with this offense is how much volume can Tyler Lockett assume. Doug Baldwin is locked in as the top target and should push 20 percent once again. Lockett will need to dig into Jermaine Kearse's target totals and his preseason uses shows that Kearse is still the guy in two receiver sets because of his run blocking prowess. Lockett can still break out this season but he'll need to do so on closer to 90 targets rather than pushing for 110.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans is going to put it all together this season. Even if Vincent Jackson returns to form with more health and eats into Evans' 28 percent share from last season, he looks lights out in the preseason. Evans improved as a route runner last year but saw regression in the touchdown department. If those two even out this year, he could easily crack the top-eight wide receiver rankings. Evans looks like the type of receiver an offense should flow through in his preseason action this year.

Tennessee Titans

Despite being all the rage of the preseason, and for good reason, Tajae Sharpe will need to eat into some of Delanie walker's 2015 targets to have every-week viability in fantasy. That is entirely possible and the Titans receiving corps shouldn't be so spread out this year as none of them cleared 15 percent of the team targets. Sharpe has a connection with Mariota and is a pristine route-runner already. The team does want to run the ball, though, and already ranked a lowly 22nd in pass attempts last year. If they crater to the bottom five, none of these pass catchers might get enough work to be fantasy relevant.

Washington Redskins

With Josh Doctson on the shelf for much of the offseason, it looks like he won't be a factor early in the season. As a result, Pierre Garcon is essentially free in drafts and looks like a stone-cold lock for 100 targets in a pass-heavy offense.

You can rely on NFL.com's Touches and Targets column for great fantasy advice. Just like you can rely on FedEx Ground for fast and affordable shipping.

Matt Harmon is an associate fantasy writer/editor for NFL.com, and the creator of #ReceptionPerception, who you can follow on Twitter @MattHarmon_BYB or like on Facebook.