Week 1 of the NFL season can make fantasy football managers do shortsighted things. After all, just 5.5 percent of the regular season is in the books as of this writing. I know we're not supposed to overreact to the first week, but underreacting can be costly, too. I'm looking to find the sweet spot in the middle with my weekly exploration of the fantasy waiver wire. I won't always succeed in that quest, but I'll give it my best shot as I take the waiver baton from my distinguished colleague, Matt Okada.
The only rule here: Players must be rostered in less than 60 percent of NFL.com leagues to be eligible for the list.
Let's get wired.
QUARTERBACKS
ROSTERED: 1%
Deep breaths. This might blow your mind: Carr’s been one of the best quarterbacks in the league for the past five regular-season weeks dating back to last season. He ranks first in the NFL in completion percentage (76.2), passing TDs (15) and passer rating (129.0) since Week 15 of 2023. As you can see from his rostered percentage, there are basically only Carr skeptics out there. I get it. We have a decade-long sample size to see what he offers. I’m not suggesting he should make it into fantasy starting lineups with the Cowboys potentially bringing him back down to earth in Week 2 after a three-TD day against the woeful Panthers. I am saying Carr deserves to be rostered in more than one percent of leagues and should not be ignored as a fantasy backup.
ROSTERED: 24%
Maybe Mayfield didn’t need Dave Canales after all. The Liam Coen offense suited him just fine in Week 1, when he carved up the Commanders for 289 yards passing and four TDs. Now, he averaged just 5.0 air yards per attempt (third-fewest among Week 1 starting QBs) and has a tougher matchup awaiting him in Week 2, with a trip to Detroit on tap. The Bucs fell at Ford Field in the Divisional Round last season, but Mayfield racked up 349 yards and three TDs through the air (to go along with two INTs). This is a better Lions defense than the one Baker had success against in January. So, I’d expect some regression, but doubting Mayfield has been a losing proposition for most of the past year. The man is the fantasy QB2 heading into Week 2. He’s at worst a viable backup in most formats and is a worthy streaming option for QB-needy managers.
Keep an eye on: Justin Fields. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin wasn't committing to a Week 2 starter after Pittsburgh's win on Sunday. I don't know if he'll hand the keys of the offense to Fields before giving Russell Wilson a start, but Fields' dual-threat ability makes him an intriguing streaming option against the Broncos if he gets another start.
RUNNING BACKS
ROSTERED: 0.5%
A strong preseason carried over into the regular season for Bigsby. He led the Jaguars with 73 yards rushing on 12 carries (6.1 per) against Miami on Sunday. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s the same number of carries that Travis Etienne received in the opener. I’m certainly not expecting to see a 50/50 split between the two backs every week, and Bigsby has not been a factor as a pass catcher (four targets in 18 career games), which limits his fantasy ceiling. He has the burst and elusiveness to provide a spark with the ball in his hands, though. He’s worth a look in deeper leagues with the offseason hype being backed up for one week.
ROSTERED: 11%
The glimpses of greatness from Dobbins are back and better than ever. Now, if only we could get something close to a full season’s worth of them. He exploded for 135 yards and a TD on 10 carries (13.5 per!) against the Raiders, including a 61-yard jaunt. Dobbins entered this season averaging 5.8 yards per carry in 24 career games, so there was never a doubt he had big-play ability. The problem is, he played in just nine of a possible 51 games from 2021 through 2023 with the Ravens, missing all but one game in ’23 with a torn Achilles and sitting out the entire ‘21 campaign with an ACL injury that also cost him nine games in ‘22. He looked healthy running through Las Vegas' defense on Sunday, and he saw a larger share of the snaps than starter Gus Edwards (58% to 42%). With a coaching staff committed to running the ball and a salivating matchup against Carolina up next, I’d advise picking Dobbins up if you can.
ROSTERED: 7%
What a show Mason put on in his first career start! The third-year veteran shredded the Jets for 147 rush yards and a TD on 28 carries with Christian McCaffrey sidelined due to a calf/Achilles injury that has lingered for weeks. Mason is the fantasy RB5 coming off the heroic performance. The expiration date on his usefulness as a fantasy starter lines up with whenever McCaffrey returns from injury, and that day might not be far away considering the 49ers waited until the last minute to rule out the reigning Offensive Player of the Year for Week 1. For now, ride the Mason momentum as long as you can.
ROSTERED: 0.8%
Surprise! After Zamir White breakout chatter buzzed around fantasy circles all offseason, Mattison saw 36 snaps to White’s 23 in Week 1. So much for that storyline. I can’t say I’m super bullish on Mattison’s potential after his disappointing 2023 season as the Vikings’ RB1, but he did look spry on his 31-yard TD catch, which accounted for half of his total yardage against the Chargers. If you’re in the deepest of leagues, he should be on your radar, but keep in mind that White had 15 touches to Mattison’s nine. I can’t endorse him as a starting-lineup option with the well-rested Baltimore defense awaiting him in Week 2.
Keep an eye on: Bucky Irving. He saw less than a third of the snaps in his NFL debut, but he was the Bucs' leading rusher, with 62 yards on nine carries to RB1 Rachaad White's 31 on 15. White's the superior pass catcher right now, but it's clear head coach Todd Bowles is a big fan of Irving. In deeper leagues, you likely need to pounce now to get the rookie on your roster. ... Zach Charbonnet saw 10 touches and scored on a 30-yard TD catch against the Broncos. Seahawks RB1 Kenneth Walker III said he was good despite dealing with abdominal pain late in the game, but even if Walker doesn't miss time, Charbonnet could see enough of a workload to be a flex target in deep leagues. ... Justice Hill was the Ravens' most-targeted player after Zay Flowers and Isaiah Likely in Week 1. My instincts tell me this will not become a trend (the sixth-year veteran has never caught more than 28 passes in a single season), but Hill is one to watch after making six grabs for 52 yards on eight targets against the Chiefs. Keep in mind that he ran the ball only once for 3 yards. ... Emanuel Wilson should be on your radar, especially if MarShawn Lloyd remains sidelined. The Packers might get off the bus running, given Jordan Love's injury. Wilson carried four times for 46 yards and had a couple catches against the Eagles as the backup to Josh Jacobs. If Lloyd is active, he's a rookie worth scooping up in deep leagues.
WIDE RECEIVERS
ROSTERED: 12%
We know the Cowboys are going to throw the ball around the yard every week, and someone other than CeeDee Lamb has to catch it. Dak Prescott threw to Cooks seven times in Week 1, making him the second-most-targeted Dallas player. He reeled in four grabs for 40 yards and a TD and also had a carry for 5 yards against what’s expected to be a stout Browns defense. People forget, but Cooks did have eight TD catches last season. I don’t love his matchup in Week 2 (vs. Saints), but if you’re desperate for a flex option, he’s a candidate.
ROSTERED: 0.4%
Pierce was only targeted three times against the Texans, but he made the most of them, going off with the two longest plays from scrimmage of the day for the Colts: a 60-yard bomb for a TD in the first quarter and an additional 58-yard connection with Anthony Richardson in the fourth. In all, he finished with three catches for 125 yards, which means he gets to tell everyone he averages 41.7 yards per catch this week. Not too shabby. Now, Josh Downs did not play in Week 1 and he’s expected to eat into Pierce’s opportunities when he returns from an ankle injury. Pierce is also a feast-or-famine type, with 100-plus yards in two of his last seven regular-season games, but 30 or fewer in most of those contests. It’s worth monitoring Downs’ status, but deep-league fantasy managers should be intrigued by Indianapolis’ home run threat.
ROSTERED: 0.5%
ROSTERED: 0%
With uncertainty about the severity of Puka Nacua’s knee injury, Robinson and Johnson are suddenly two players fantasy managers need to know. Robinson had the edge over Johnson in snaps on Sunday night (72 to 51), but both players were targeted seven times. Johnson made a little more hay, with five receptions for 79 yards, including a 63-yarder (4-42 for Robinson). I’d prioritize Robinson (80-plus yards in two of the last three regular-season games in 2023) over Johnson, but given Sean McVay’s affinity for 11 personnel, both players have the potential to produce in a flex spot.
EDITOR'S UPDATE: McVay announced on Monday that Nacua has a knee sprain and is being placed on injured reserve, which means the Pro Bowl receiver will miss at least the next four games.
ROSTERED: 2%
He might play in a putrid offense, but his 12 targets (tied for second-most in the league) in Week 1 have my attention. Robinson turned those chances into six catches for 44 yards, which isn’t going to excite anyone. He did have a carry for 14 yards, which is a little more enticing. I wouldn’t sleep on him as a flex option in deep leagues with a matchup next week at the Commanders, who allowed the fourth-most passing yards and third-most YAC of any team in Week 1.
Keep an eye on: Rashid Shaheed. He was among the Saints players cashing in big performances against the Panthers, tying for the team lead with five targets and scoring on a 59-yard catch. Defenses will want to focus on keeping Chris Olave bottled up, which means Shaheed is going to see favorable coverage. It's hard to like New Orleans' matchup against the Cowboys in Week 2, but if you have a screaming need for a flex contributor, he could fill the void. ... I didn't foresee Greg Dortch drawing eight targets to Marvin Harrison Jr.'s three in the opener, but here we are. Dortch converted his six catches into just 47 yards (7.8 per), but if Kyler Murray's going to look his way so frequently, he has to be on the fantasy radar.
TIGHT ENDS
ROSTERED: 1%
Move over, Luke Musgrave? Kraft posted just two catches for 37 yards, but the reason he’s included here is because of his playing time. He was on the field for 96 percent of the snaps against the Eagles, while Musgrave saw just 25 percent of them. The injury to Jordan Love doesn’t help anyone on the Packers' offense, but if Kraft is going to play that much, solid production could follow.
ROSTERED: 13%
The 139th pick of the 2022 NFL Draft has arrived. Likely might change his cleats for the Ravens’ Week 2 game against the Raiders if he takes Patrick Mahomes’ advice, but the 6-foot-4, 247-pound tight end really shouldn’t be tinkering with much after a dazzling opener. While he had shown flashes in his first two seasons, Likely entered 2024 widely viewed as Baltimore’s TE2 behind Mark Andrews. Likely will be the TE1 on a lot of fantasy managers’ rosters moving forward, though. He played nearly as many snaps as Andrews (59 to 53) and was targeted a team-high 12 times (Andrews was targeted twice) against the Chiefs, making a career-high nine receptions for 111 yards and a TD. That will most definitely play at a position that is not the deepest.
Keep an eye on: Cleveland's Jordan Akins and Dallas' Luke Schoonmaker. With David Njoku and Jake Ferguson suffering injuries on Sunday, Akins and Schoonmaker would be the tight ends to stash from the Browns and Cowboys, respectively. The good news is Ferguson avoided a severe injury and is week-to-week with a sprained MCL and bone bruise, per NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport. Njoku is feared to have a high ankle sprain, Rapoport reported.
DEFENSES
ROSTERED: 25%
Get on the Bolts D/ST bandwagon before it’s too late! This unit was stingy (10 points allowed) and opportunistic (three takeaways) against the Raiders. Now the schedule sets up beautifully for the Chargers. They visit the Panthers -- who are coming off a 10-point showing -- in Week 2 and then travel to play a Steelers team that did not muster an offensive TD against the Falcons in Week 1.
ROSTERED: 6%
It’s a bit risky to rely on the Colts, considering the defense provided a paltry three fantasy points in a tough game against the Texans. This is all about the matchup with Green Bay, though. Do you want to miss out on a potential chance to capitalize against Malik Willis in what would be his first start since the 2022 season? Jordan Love is sidelined, and Willis has yet to show he can be an effective passer in the NFL, posting a completion rate of 52.2 percent with 350 yards, no TDs and three INTs in 12 career games. Indy is a good option for managers looking to stream a defense.
ROSTERED: 58%
I know the Jets’ defense got smoked by a 49ers offense that didn’t have Christian McCaffrey in Week 1, but Gang Green still has a juicy matchup with the Titans up next. Tennessee is coming off a disastrous loss to the Bears, with Will Levis giving the game away by turning the ball over three times (two INTs, one fumble). New York had the No. 4 fantasy defense a year ago, and it has a decent chance to bounce back in Nashville against a quarterback who is still learning how to be smart with the football. Plus, the Jets host the unimposing Patriots and Broncos offenses in Weeks 3 and 4, so they could be a multi-week streamer if they shake off a poor performance in the opener.
KICKERS
There's a reason everyone says wait until the late rounds to draft a kicker. Of the 12 highest-ranked players at the position heading into Week 1, just five are among the top 12 at the position in fantasy points right now. If you don't have one of the few top-tier kickers on your roster, Chris Boswell (Steelers) -- coming off a six-FG day -- Jake Elliott (Eagles), Blake Grupe (Saints), Chase McLaughlin (Buccaneers) and Cairo Santos (Bears) each make sense as pickups.
