The free-agent quarterback class features Sam Darnold and few other starting options. Some bigger-name veterans could come available, but they have their own question marks. And this year's prospect crop at the position isn't nearly as revered as last year's group, which ultimately produced six of the first 12 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.
But teams that don't have quarterbacks must find them -- and it's a safe bet that some will look to do so early in the 2025 draft.
Over the past 10 drafts, 35 quarterbacks have gone in the first round, an average of 3.5 per year. This year's event could fall shy of that mark, with two quarterbacks -- Miami's Cam Ward and Colorado's Shedeur Sanders -- seemingly separating themselves from the rest of the pack. But there's also the chance that a talented prospect, such as Ole Miss' Jaxson Dart, rises late in the process and sneaks into the back end of Round 1.
At this moment, plenty of teams are at least candidates to draft a quarterback in the first 32 picks. Some of these squads will drop off the list with veteran-QB acquisitions in the coming months, but it's a game of musical chairs, and a few of them will be left without proper seating prior to April 24, when the first round kicks off in Green Bay, Wisconsin. With that in mind, here are the franchises most likely to take a quarterback in Round 1.
First-round pick: No. 2 overall
Even with a team selecting above them and no guarantee their top choice will be there at No. 2, the Browns seem like the organization with the best chance right now to draft a quarterback in Round 1. Their financial situation is such that trying to secure a veteran QB with a starter-level salary feels difficult without major reconstruction. Remember: Deshaun Watson, who could miss the entire 2025 season following a major setback in his Achilles rehab, carries a $72 million cap hit.
One way or another, Cleveland's going to add at least two new QBs -- and the draft can help. Last year's No. 2 overall pick, Jayden Daniels, signed a four-year deal worth $37.75 million fully guaranteed, with a Year 1 salary-cap hit of just under $6.9 million. So, you figure this year's No. 2 overall pick will hit the cap at a little more than $7 million in 2025, which might be about all the Browns could realistically afford for a starting-caliber QB.
If either Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward slides a bit and the Browns can land one of them lower than the second pick, all the better. They have the draft capital to pull off something like that, and that's before any final decisions have been made on the fate of Myles Garrett. Should the point arrive where the Browns decide they have to auction off Garrett to the highest bidder, such a move will net more picks and likely signal a rebuild. And that would, presumably, make a rookie QB even more likely.
First-round pick: No. 6 overall
Armed with nearly $100 million in cap space, the Raiders could look vastly different come draft time. Only the Patriots have more money to spend this offseason, per Over The Cap. It will be surprising if new GM John Spytek doesn't take aggressive measures to upgrade the roster in free agency.
Las Vegas also has all of its original draft picks, including No. 6 overall, plus a third-round pick acquired from the Jets in the Davante Adams deal. The team is projected to receive two compensatory picks, as well.
There are roster holes in the trenches and in the secondary, and the Raiders must add more offensive firepower. But the need at quarterback looms largest. Including restricted free agent Desmond Ridder, Las Vegas currently has three QBs with 17-plus NFL starts, but do Pete Carroll and the new staff love any of them? It's not hard to connect the quarterback dots through the draft here.
The Raiders have the means to move up from No. 6 if the opportunity presents itself. They could even take a non-QB up high and then swing into the back end of Round 1 if they deem a remaining quarterback is worth selecting there. (Maybe a sliding Shedeur Sanders? Jaxson Dart?)
Some have made the connection between new Raiders offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and his quarterback at Ohio State last season, Will Howard, but Howard doesn't appear to be a Round 1 candidate yet. So, it's entirely possible Las Vegas uses non-first-round means to address the position. After all, didn't Carroll hand the keys over to third-round rookie Russell Wilson once? That decision turned out pretty well. But I view this situation a little differently, as Carroll was in Year 3 of the Seattle rebuild when Russ came aboard. Unless Vegas makes a major veteran-QB acquisition this offseason, using a first-round pick on a passer feels like it's absolutely in play.
First-round pick: No. 1 overall
The team holding the top pick always has to be viewed as a serious contender to draft a quarterback. Eight of the past 10 No. 1 overall selections have been QBs, and the Titans labored through 28 turnovers from Will Levis and Mason Rudolph last season. At the very least, they must provide some serious competition for Levis in 2025.
Few view this team as a one-year turnaround right now, although the Commanders provided a blueprint of how to remake a roster and thrive immediately behind the brilliance of Jayden Daniels and a cast of hungry role players. The Titans have the requisite salary-cap space to attack a lot of needs prior to the draft.
But do they have to take a QB at No. 1? Absolutely not. And is there one who can have a Daniels-like impact in Year 1? There's a high, high level of doubt about that.
If new GM Mike Borgonzi isn't convinced that Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders is worth the top pick, there's no reason to force it. First-time general managers will always be remembered for their first pick, and Tennessee would hate to have to consider replacing a QB in two or three years if it's not working out. Two blue-chip prospects -- edge Abdul Carter and WR/CB Travis Hunter -- could fill needs in Nashville beyond the QB position.
First-round pick: No. 3 overall
There's a sense of urgency for head coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen after another rough season for this proud organization. The Giants have gone 9-25 over the last two years, watching the Commanders completely change the trajectory of their franchise and the Eagles hoist the Lombardi Trophy -- with Saquon Barkley -- this past season. This Big Blue regime needs to win more games in 2025, or else ...
Sitting at No. 3 overall in the draft, the Giants seemingly are in the catbird seat to take a quarterback if Ward and Sanders don't go 1-2. But it won't shock me if the G-Men figure out their starting signal-caller before April.
It would be a different story if this were last year's draft (when the Giants inquired about moving up for Drake Maye), as that was a much deeper, richer well of QB talent. Ward and Sanders might end up as fine NFL quarterbacks one day, and I hope they do, but NFL talent evaluators roundly believe last year's QB crop was much stronger than what the 2025 draft offers.
These Giants scream “veteran quarterback” to me -- even if they end up drafting one this year at some point -- and there already has been chatter about the Rams' Matthew Stafford potentially being in play. The veteran options are limited, and there are potential drawbacks with all of them. But entrusting a rookie passer with leading the Giants back to competitiveness in Year 1 feels like a stretch to me.
If the Giants strike out on landing an unquestioned veteran starter, their likelihood of drafting a quarterback in Round 1 will rise significantly. But I think going the free-agent/trade route is Plan A right now.
First-round pick: No. 7 overall
No one knows quite what to expect from newlyweds Aaron Glenn and Darren Mougey, but the Jets have a lot of work to do. Aaron Rodgers is expected to be released soon, and many of his consorts likely will follow. This will leave the Jets with only Tyrod Taylor and 2024 fifth-rounder Jordan Travis under contract at quarterback.
In spite of New York's willingness to run it back with Rodgers last year, it became obvious early on that the roster was not playoff-caliber -- and it likely will be even less so if the Jets trim even more fat than just Rodgers and his buds. There are some building blocks in house, no doubt, but they need a lot more to fill in the foundation. Drafting a quarterback is entirely possible, but at the same time, this isn't a team that's a quarterback away from hitting the Super Bowl next season.
Mougey also came from Denver, where the Broncos were able to land Bo Nix at No. 12 in spite of five teams drafting quarterbacks ahead of them. This year's QB crop isn't as gilded as last year's, but there's a similar draft-order setup, with multiple QB-needy teams picking before the Jets.
If one of the top two QB prospects slips to No. 7, the Jets might have to jump on him. This isn't a great year to be picking in the top 10, with very few true blue-chip prospects at any position. New York also could investigate moving up into the back end of the first round for a QB. The Jets aren't exactly teeming with 2025 draft capital but could attempt to jump up from their second-round slot.
First-round pick: No. 9 overall
Kellen Moore had nice things to say about Derek Carr in his introductory press conference, but the Saints' new head coach stopped shy of stamping the incumbent quarterback as the team's Week 1 starter. This week, however, GM Mickey Loomis said he's excited about Carr returning to the team for 2025.
Carr missed seven games due to injuries last season, but he still has starting ability heading into his age-34 season. The problem is the Saints' accounting. They're currently more than $40 million in the red for 2025, according to Over The Cap, and will need to clear major cap space to be in compliance by the start of the league year. Carr has cap hits of $51 million and $61 million, respectively, over the next two years -- by far the biggest numbers on New Orleans' books.
That said, Carr has no interest in taking a pay cut. But with the Saints likely to retain him – with Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener behind him on the QB depth chart -- restructuring Carr might be the most likely scenario, lowering his base salary and converting the difference into a signing bonus, which could be spread out over five years. That might create a problem for another day, but the Saints don't have many great options. If they do surprise and draft a first-round quarterback, it will be the first time the franchise goes that route (outside the supplemental draft) since Archie Manning went second overall in 1971.
Possible, but unlikely
First-round pick: No. 21 overall
Pittsburgh's on the list because it's unclear how the team will find a starting quarterback for 2025. Running it back with Russell Wilson or Justin Fields is possible, but the Steelers appear to be considering all of their options thoroughly before the league year starts.
The failed Kenny Pickett experiment might give general manager Omar Khan and head coach Mike Tomlin some trepidation when it comes to the possibility of handing the team over to a rookie quarterback again -- and it might take one of the top two prospects tumbling within range of the Steelers' 21st overall pick to even consider such a move. Even with Pittsburgh using a lot of recent draft picks to bolster the offensive line, there's a dearth of weapons for a rookie QB to throw to.
I could see the Steelers drafting a quarterback this year -- at some point -- or moving closer to the top of the 2026 rendition of this story. But by the time the 2025 draft rolls around, I believe they will have secured a veteran capable of starting in Week 1. That would lower the chances, in my opinion, of them taking a QB in Round 1 this year.
First-round pick: No. 18 overall
All signs currently point to Geno Smith remaining the Seahawks' QB1, even though his 15 interceptions were an issue last season. Seattle's change at offensive coordinator (Smith's third in three years) suggests the blame is not all on the quarterback. Regardless of who's under center, the 'Hawks need to continue adding talent to the offensive line.
Geno turns 35 in October, however, and he's entering the final year of his deal. Sam Howell can't yet be considered his sure-fire replacement, so the long-term need is there. But when the question turns to how likely a first-round QB might be, the chances feel low.
Since the Seahawks took Russell Wilson in 2012, GM John Schneider has drafted only one quarterback: 2018 seventh-rounder Alex McGough. It would make sense to add another young talent to the QB mix, but doing so with the 18th overall pick doesn't quite jibe with me right now.
First-round pick: No. 26 overall
If the Rams ultimately move Matthew Stafford, it's a different situation. Los Angeles recently granted the veteran quarterback's camp permission to talk to other teams about his market value, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's done with the franchise, as Sean McVay has expressed his desire for Stafford to return for 2025. In a year where few starting-grade veteran quarterbacks appear available, though, Stafford could be at the top of some teams' wish lists, potentially fueling a solid return for the Rams.
But even as unpredictable as GM Les Snead can be, it's hard to imagine the Rams pulling the trigger on a quarterback at No. 26 -- or moving up for one. If Stafford ends up elsewhere, I could see the Rams bringing back Jimmy Garoppolo and letting him battle with Stetson Bennett and a non-Round 1 rookie.
