The Next Gen Stats Team uses its draft model to identify the five best value picks in Round 1 of the 2025 NFL Draft.
- Production Score: 93
- Athleticism Score: 77 (estimated)
- OVERALL DRAFT SCORE: 85
Graham is here not just because of where he was chosen -- No. 5 overall is fair value for one of the top prospects in this year's class. The return that general manager Andrew Berry secured in a trade down is what elevates this selection into the value-pick conversation. The Browns moved back just three spots (from No. 2 to No. 5) in a deal with Jacksonville, still landed a premier interior defender and snagged a bounty of future assets: a second- (No. 36) and fourth-round (No. 126) pick in this year's draft, plus the Jaguars' 2026 first-round pick. Graham, who earned a 93 production score and an 85 overall score in the NGS draft model, brings blue-chip talent to a position of need. When his analytic bona fides are combined with the long-term flexibility provided by the move down -- potentially setting up a future move for a franchise quarterback, as owner Jimmy Haslam suggested pre-draft -- this was one of the shrewdest moves of Round 1.
- Production Score: 98
- Athleticism Score: 85 (estimated)
- OVERALL DRAFT SCORE: 92
Last year, general manager Chris Ballard tried and failed to move up to a position where he could have selected Brock Bowers. This year, he didn't have to move for a player with similar upside, letting the board come to him and deliver one of the best all-around players in the draft. According to the Next Gen Stats draft model, Warren earned the second-highest overall draft score (92) in this year's class, while his production score (98) ranks third among tight ends over the last five draft classes.
A true three-down contributor, Warren brings immediate value as both a receiver and blocker. He's a top-10 talent who fell into the teens as teams above Indy appeared to prioritize more premium positions. Warren will look to elevate a tight end room that recorded a league-low 232 yards after the catch in 2024. The last Colts tight end to record more than 500 receiving yards in a season? Eric Ebron in 2018 (750).
- Production Score: 94
- Athleticism Score: 79
- OVERALL DRAFT SCORE: 89
When you combine Barron's measurables with his on-field production at Texas, he stands out as one of the most analytically supported prospects in this year's class, according to the Next Gen Stats draft model. The first-team All-American earned the fifth-highest overall score (89) in the NGS model in 2025 -- each of the four players ranked above him were drafted within the top 14 picks.
With experience both in the slot and on the perimeter, Barron projects as a versatile chess piece for defensive coordinator Vance Joseph and a strong complement to Patrick Surtain II. Perhaps that connection helped seal the deal -- at Texas, Barron played under Joseph's cousin, Terry Joseph, who jumped from the Longhorns' coaching staff to the Saints' this offseason. Instead of addressing immediate needs, GM George Paton and head coach Sean Payton selected the best player available at No. 20, according to both Daniel Jeremiah's draft board and the NGS model.
- Production Score: 78
- Athleticism Score: 82
- OVERALL DRAFT SCORE: 82
A torn labrum that may delay his offseason availability likely contributed to Campbell’s slide to the end of Round 1. Still, GM Howie Roseman capitalized once again, landing one of the draft’s most explosive off-ball linebackers at No. 31 overall. At just under 6-foot-3 and 235 pounds, Campbell clocked a 4.52-second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine and reached a top speed of 22.62 mph -- second-fastest among all linebackers in this year’s class.
This marks the third consecutive year Roseman has drafted a Day 1 steal (Quinyon Mitchell in 2024; Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith in 2023). Campbell, who earned an 82 overall score in the NGS draft model, brings rare size-speed traits and could form a dynamic pairing with do-it-all All-Pro Zack Baun. The rich just keep getting richer.
- Production Score: 76
- Athleticism Score: 77 (estimated)
- OVERALL DRAFT SCORE: 78
A torn patellar tendon suffered in October sidelined Simmons for most of the pre-draft process, setting the stage for one of the top offensive tackles in this year’s class to fall to a team that has reached the Super Bowl in three straight seasons. Despite the injury, Simmons’ blend of size, length and footwork fits the mold of what GM Brett Veach and head coach Andy Reid traditionally value in a franchise tackle. Despite signing Jaylon Moore (12 career starts) to a two-year, $30 million deal in free agency, the Chiefs didn't pass up the opportunity to fortify their offensive line for the future. With All-Pro guard Joe Thuney (whom K.C. traded to Chicago in March) forced to play out of position at tackle for much of 2024 -- and considering how the Eagles dominated in the trenches in their Super Bowl LIX rout -- investing in Mahomes’ protection via a talent like Simmons is a savvy use of the final pick of the first round.
