For the 21st consecutive year, I've assembled a mock draft ahead of the NFL's Annual Player Selection Meeting. For the first time, you can read it here on NFL.com.
My approach is research-driven: I blend insider reports, team needs, scheme fits, apparent organizational philosophies and odds to connect dots and predict what each club's decision-makers might do when they're on the clock.
My track record speaks for itself: over the last five years, I've ranked fifth in overall accuracy among 75 draft experts, including a second-place finish among 172 experts one year ago. In 2009, I had the most accurate mock on record. While connecting every dot in a first-round mock is impossible, matching players with teams ahead of draft night is very much within reach.
With exactly five weeks until the 2025 NFL Draft opens, here's how I see the first-round puzzle playing out ...
NOTE: Below each pick, I've included implied probabilities (as of March 20) for which position that team is most likely to draft first, based on odds pulled from DraftKings. While the favorite isn't always correct, these odds often provide valuable clues as to each franchise's potential direction.
Arm talent, poise and leadership are often traits associated with Ward -- and they closely align with the type of franchise quarterback first-year general manager Mike Borgonzi (formerly of Kansas City) and second-year head coach Brian Callahan (formerly of Cincinnati) have each worked with in the past. Trading down could be tempting, but if the Titans think Ward could be their next franchise quarterback, it would likely take a substantial offer to lure them away from this pick. Once we know the next homes of the remaining unsigned veterans (notably, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson), we will know more about which teams might be desperate enough to make a move for Ward.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: QB (61%), DL (24%), CB (11%)
GM Andrew Berry just locked up Myles Garrett with a record-setting extension -- and he doubles-down here with Carter, an explosive, high-upside edge rusher. This will be the Browns' first first-round selection in four years, and given their lack of cap space, Berry and Co. can't afford to take a player at a non-premium position with the second overall pick, which comes with an average salary of $9.8 million per season over the next four years. Cleveland seems likely to grab Carter or a quarterback, or trade down; Travis Hunter would be a luxury.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: QB (42%), DL (36%), CB (18%)
It's no secret New York is in search of its next quarterback. DraftKings currently puts the Giants at a 66% implied probability to select a passer with their first pick, and they've been linked to Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers at different points this offseason. Even if the G-Men bring in a veteran like Rodgers, I still wouldn't rule out a quarterback at No. 3 overall, especially if they feel Shedeur Sanders can be their long-term answer. Though he isn't universally viewed as a top-five prospect, it only takes one team to believe in his upside. Should Sanders slip past New York, his draft stock could tumble, due to the limited number of QB-needy teams remaining.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: QB (66%), CB (17%), DL (9%)
If the top three picks include two quarterbacks and an edge rusher, the Patriots' decision likely comes down to fortifying their line with Campbell or rolling the dice on two-way phenom Travis Hunter. While Hunter reportedly sits atop New England's board as both a receiver and cornerback, new head coach Mike Vrabel and general manager Eliot Wolf seem more likely to prioritize protecting Drake Maye. In 2023, when Vrabel was head coach of the Titans, Tennessee drafted Peter Skoronski in the first round, and Vrabel publicly stated that arm length is less important than toughness and physicality. He'll find both of those latter qualities in Campbell's game.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (35%), CB (34%), WR (14%), DL (12%)
PROJECTED TRADE WITH JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
In his first draft as a primary decision-maker, new Jets GM Darren Mougey channels the aggressive strategy modeled for him by former boss George Paton, trading up to leapfrog the Raiders for Hunter. Embracing the recent pick-stocking philosophy of his former boss, Rams GM Les Snead, new Jaguars GM James Gladstone gladly accepts a third-round choice in this hypothetical. The Jets need help opposite Garrett Wilson at receiver and Sauce Gardner at cornerback, making New York an ideal spot for Hunter to showcase his rare two-way talent. It would be fitting for former Jets corner/current head coach Aaron Glenn to select a ball-hawking playmaker with his first pick on the job.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (25%), DL (20%), CB (17%), TE (15%), WR (12%)
If head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly want to make the ground game their offensive identity, Jeanty could be their guy. While analytically-minded front offices might hesitate to spend the sixth overall pick on a running back, Jeanty's big-play ability suggests he could be worth it. If Travis Hunter is still on the board here (which is possible, if two quarterbacks are gone), first-year GM John Spytek will have a fascinating decision to make.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: RB (30%), WR (20%), CB (19%), DL (9%), OL (9%)
PROJECTED TRADE WITH NEW YORK JETS
As mentioned in the Jets blurb above, in my mock, Jags GM James Gladstone follows the capital-hoarding strategy of former boss Les Snead, trading down two spots while still nabbing the player I would have given them at No. 5. As intriguing as Travis Hunter would have been there, Gladstone and new head coach Liam Coen choose to reinforce the defensive line with Graham -- consistent with Gladstone's public emphasis on the trenches. The Jaguars staff already has a solid read on this game wrecker, thanks to assistant linebackers coach Kevin Wilkins, who coached edge rushers at Michigan last season.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (38%), OL (25%), CB (15%), WR (7%)
With Mason Graham likely to come off the board before the Panthers make their selection, GM Dan Morgan could lean on scheme fit to bolster what was the league's all-time worst scoring defense. Enter Jalon Walker, a versatile edge/linebacker who's an ideal fit in defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero's 3-4 scheme. Intriguingly, Walker went to high school in Salisbury, North Carolina (less than an hour from Charlotte), and has publicly shown excitement about the chances of playing for his hometown team.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (43%), LB (15%), WR (14%), CB (9%), OL (9%)
Longtime GM Mickey Loomis has consistently prioritized prototypical edge rushers -- think previous high-round picks Marcus Davenport, Payton Turner and Isaiah Foskey, all measuring around 6-foot-5, 260-plus pounds, with ample arm length. Williams, at 6-5 1/8 and 260 with 34 3/8-inch arms, fits that mold perfectly. Although his college production doesn't jump off the page (he never had more than five sacks in a season at Georgia), the Saints have never shied away from investing in raw physical tools. New head coach Kellen Moore, who comes over from an Eagles organization known for its investment in the trenches, carries the philosophy (and Philly's apparent preference for former Bulldog defenders) forward.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: CB (19%), DL (17%), WR (17%), OL (12%), TE (12%), LB (11%)
GM Ryan Poles and new head coach Ben Johnson rebuilt the interior of Chicago's offensive line in a few short weeks, trading draft picks for Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson and signing former Falcons center Drew Dalman in free agency. Former first-round pick Darnell Wright is entrenched at right tackle, but the left side remains uncertain, as Braxton Jones recovers from an ankle injury suffered late last season and is in a contract year. Few quarterbacks need stout protection more than Caleb Williams, who was sacked 68 times as a rookie, third-most by any player in a single season in NFL history. Enter Kelvin Banks Jr., 2024's Outland Trophy winner, who projects as a franchise left tackle capable of completing the overhaul up front. There could be a push to grab Ashton Jeanty if he's available, but Johnson's track record during his time as offensive coordinator in Detroit suggests he'll continue to emphasize the trenches.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: RB (33%), DL (25%), OL (17%), TE (9%)
It isn't a stretch to think the 49ers are preparing for life after Trent Williams, who turns 37 in July and is set to carry a massive cap hit in 2026. Membou offers a rare blend of size (332 pounds) and athleticism (he ran a 4.91-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine) that is ideal for Kyle Shanahan's outside-zone scheme. He could challenge Colton McKivitz for the right tackle job immediately or slot in at guard as a rookie if Williams and McKivitz remain healthy. San Francisco's in-person meeting with Membou in Indy only strengthens the belief that he's on the Niners' short list of potential long-term building blocks.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (31%), DL (24%), CB (16%)
The Cowboys' chances of unseating the Eagles atop the NFC East hinge on winning in the trenches, and Grant's imposing frame would make him an appealing anchor up front. He also has the skill set to negate any bad memories of their recent whiffs on Michigan linemen (Taco Charlton and Mazi Smith). Grant's ability to occupy multiple blockers should help free up Micah Parsons and Osa Odighizuwa to create more negative plays for a defense that ranked 17th against the pass and 28th overall in 2024.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (23%), WR (23%), DL (18%), CB (11%), RB (10%)
With Jevon Holland off to the Giants and Jordan Poyer still unsigned, the Dolphins have an immediate need at both safety spots. Starks is a versatile defender who would fit perfectly into DC Anthony Weaver's system at both safety and nickel, echoing the "star" role Kyle Hamilton played in Baltimore during Weaver's time on the Ravens staff. Yes, Starks ran a 4.50 40 at the combine, but he also showcased top-end game speed, with Next Gen Stats tracking data clocking him as the fastest safety on more than half of on-field drills.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (39%), DL (19%), S (16%), CB (12%)
It's no secret that GM Chris Ballard tried to trade up last year into a position that would have allowed him to draft Brock Bowers, and the Colts could still use serious help at the position, where they have not otherwise made any significant investments for two offseasons running. That could change on draft night. According to the latest DraftKings odds, the Colts are the only team favored to select a tight end with their first pick this year. Warren is a three-down TE who excels in all three phases -- as a receiver, run blocker and pass blocker. He's a top-10 talent who falls to the teens here as teams opt for prospects at more premium positions.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: TE (28%), OL (23%), DL (12%), S (12%), CB (10%)
After the Falcons finished in the bottom two among NFL teams in sacks (31) and pressure rate (28.1%, per Next Gen Stats) in 2024, it seems pretty likely they'll look to address the defensive line here. With the way the board falls in this scenario, GM Terry Fontenot and head coach Raheem Morris could be drawn to Stewart's elite physical traits.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (46%), CB (14%), S (12%), LB (11%), OL (8%), WR (8%)
Arizona signed Josh Sweat to a four-year, $76.4 million contract in free agency and brought back Baron Browning on a two-year deal, but we should not assume head coach Jonathan Gannon and GM Monti Ossenfort are done adding pieces to the pass rush. The Cardinals have listed Sweat and Browning as linebackers on their official roster, an indication they covet scheme-flexible edge defenders who can stand up or put a hand in the dirt. Pearce, who displayed relentless pursuit at Tennessee, perfectly fits that mold, bringing the burst Gannon seems to look for off the edge. Should Arizona pivot to the interior, Michigan's Kenneth Grant and Oregon's Derrick Harmon would presumably be on the short list as scheme fits.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (34%), OL (25%), CB (16%), LB (10%)
The Bengals stop the slide for Johnson, who falls out of the top 15 in this mock after missing much of last season with a foot injury, then failing to clock a public pre-draft 40, presuming reports that he will not run at Michigan's pro day because of a hamstring injury hold true. Put on his tape from Michigan's run to the College Football Playoff National Championship in 2023 and you'll see a ball-hawking corner with exceptional instincts and top-10 talent. Duke Tobin, who has shown a propensity for selecting cornerbacks in the early rounds of the draft throughout his tenure as the Bengals' primary draft-day decision-maker, looks at his roster and sees DJ Turner II as the only cornerback of note signed beyond 2025. After Cincy handsomely payed Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, we can expect Tobin to focus on defense with the six picks they have in April's draft.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (39%), OL (21%), CB (19%), S (9%)
On offense, Sam Darnold (three years, $100.5 million) replaced Geno Smith, and Cooper Kupp (three years, $45 million) stepped in following the exits of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, leaving Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the lone returning starter in the receiving corps. Signing Kupp does not rule out taking a wideout with an early-round pick; rather, the 'Hawks should still be in the market for an "X" receiver like McMillan. Addressing the offensive line is also on the table, but given that the most immediate needs there are at guard, and GM John Schneider is reluctant to overpay for guards, it seems more likely he addresses the trenches with at least one of his four Day 2 picks.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (35%), WR (21%), DL (11%), TE (11%), S (10%)
The Buccaneers brought back Lavonte David, one of the top off-ball blitzers in the NFL by pressures, according to Next Gen Stats, on a one-year deal. Who better for three-down linebacker Jihaad Campbell (5.0 sacks in 2024 with Alabama) to learn from before assuming green-dot duties than the 13-year veteran? Between Darron Lee in 2016 with the Jets and Devin White in 2019 in Tampa, Todd Bowles-led defenses have not been shy about investing first-round capital at the linebacker position.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (30%), CB (23%), LB (15%), OL (12%), S (9%)
Matthew Golden, who ran a 4.29 40 at the combine, brings the kind of field-stretching presence head coach Sean Payton has long prized -- reminiscent of Brandin Cooks, Kenny Stills and Ted Ginn Jr. in past Payton-led offenses. With Courtland Sutton inching toward his 30th birthday (in October) and entering the final year of his restructured deal, and given GM George Paton's demonstrated penchant for athletic playmakers, Golden aligns perfectly as a dynamic long-term asset to support the growth of Bo Nix.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: RB (22%), WR (19%), DL (18%), CB (15%), OL (12%)
General manager Omar Khan and head Mike Tomlin know it's time to start planning for a long-term replacement for Cameron Heyward. The seven-time Pro Bowler turns 36 in May and carries a $19 million-plus cap hit in each of the next two years. Harmon has the size, length and power to fit well as a 5-technique in Teryl Austin's 3-4 scheme. Although Khan and Tomlin didn't travel west for Harmon's Pro Day, a solid combine interview may have solidified interest. The Steelers have historically sent key decision-makers to scout their first-round targets in person, a streak snapped last year when the Steelers opted for Troy Fautanu, another prospect from the Pacific Northwest.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (26%), DL (20%), QB (19%), CB (15%)
After a season of piecing together the tight end position with low-cost veterans, head coach Jim Harbaugh looks to the future by reuniting with Loveland, a player he recruited to Michigan. Loveland's length, hands and catch radius make him an ideal security blanket for Justin Herbert, while his plus athleticism creates mismatches against linebackers and safeties. Given the Chargers' need for a stable, long-term presence in the middle of the field, Loveland's upside is hard to ignore.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (25%), TE (19%), OL (18%), WR (14%), CB (12%)
General manager Brian Gutekunst loves drafting elite athletes on the defensive side in the early rounds, and Barron fits the mold. When you combine his measurables with his on-field production at Texas, this versatile defensive back is one of the top analytically-supported prospects in this year's class, according to the Next Gen Stats draft model. The first-team All-American earned a 90 overall draft score based on the output of the predictive model, one of five prospects in this year's class to earn an elite score. In a draft loaded with intriguing corners, Green Bay opts for one who checks the athleticism, character and medical boxes.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (30%), CB (29%), WR (18%), OL (16%)
PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Chiefs jump up to No. 24 to secure a prospect they believe could be their next franchise left tackle, moving ahead of an expected OL run between picks 25 and 29. The last time the Chiefs came off a non-championship season, GM Brett Veach and head coach Andy Reid made a similar move up the board to secure cornerback Trent McDuffie. Recovering from an October patella tendon tear, Simmons' medical clearance will be paramount to his draft stock. When healthy, his combination of size, length and footwork match the prototype Veach and Reid typically look for in a franchise tackle. Even after signing Jaylon Moore (12 career starts) to a two-year, $30 million deal, the Chiefs remain intent on fortifying Patrick Mahomes' protection long-term. Simmons did recently start following the Chiefs and Mahomes on Instagram, with Kansas City the only team among his list of 900-plus follows. That's how deep draft research can get -- analyzing social media activity. It did lead me to connecting Lamar Jackson and Zay Flowers around this time two years ago.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (39%), DL (24%), CB (12%), RB (8%)
With Tank Dell's late-season injury creating uncertainty at receiver, the Texans select Egbuka to serve as an immediate playmaker for their young quarterback. Polished as a route runner and dangerous after the catch, this Ohio State product can thrive in the slot or as a "Z" receiver opposite Nico Collins. Even with Laremy Tunsil gone, Houston believes Tytus Howard can solidify left tackle, freeing them to focus on the skill group early and the interior O-line on Day 2.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (49%), WR (23%), DL (9%)
Les Snead's draft-day approach has evolved -- he used to aggressively trade up for marquee players, but lately, he's accumulated mid-round capital. Standing pat at No. 26, he returns to the Florida State pipeline for Thomas, a fluid corner with size, ball skills and scheme versatility. The Rams' secondary could use an influx of youth, and Thomas represents a potential long-term solution on the boundary. Even if Snead entertains offers to move down again, landing a dynamic corner like Thomas is on the table.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: CB (24%), OL (24%), DL (15%), TE (13%), LB (9%)
General manager Eric DeCosta's BPA strategy aligns with need, given veteran Kyle Van Noy's age and Odafe Oweh's 2026 free agency. Ezeiruaku's exceptional 2024 season -- ranking second in the FBS with 16.5 sacks and earning ACC Defensive Player of the Year -- pairs with his elite agility (6.94 three-cone, 4.19 short shuttle at the combine) and versatile pass-rush arsenal, aligning with DeCosta's penchant for explosive, high-upside defenders at high-impact positions.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (30%), OL (30%), CB (20%), WR (8%)
Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have made it clear that dominating in the trenches is the Lions' guiding principle, and they reinforce that by drafting Booker. A naturally powerful guard who excelled on Alabama's left side, Booker will slide to right guard to fill Kevin Zeitler's vacancy -- keeping Detroit's O-line among the league's elite. His blend of size, strength and technique aligns with Campbell's gritty, physical brand of football.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (46%), OL (28%), WR (8%)
In his final collegiate season, the Virginia native led the FBS with 17 sacks, displaying the production and athleticism that GM Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn covet. Quinn's BUCK/LEO role demands speed off the edge and a relentless motor -- traits Green consistently showcases on tape. With longtime Quinn disciple Dante Fowler Jr. back in Dallas, the Commanders are eager to restock one of the most critical positions in the coach's four-down under front.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (27%), DL (25%), CB (14%), S (10%)
Adding an explosive disruptor like Nolen aligns with GM Brandon Beane's philosophy to invest in the defensive line. When Sean McDermott's units are at their best, they have a deep rotation of up to eight D-linemen playing between 20 and 70 percent of snaps in any given game, rarely more -- football's version of load management.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (30%), CB (21%), S (18%), OL (14%)
PROJECTED TRADE WITH KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
With only four picks on Minnesota's draft docket, GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and the Vikings are among the teams most likely to trade down in the first round. Revel, who is recovering from a September ACL tear, is a 6-foot-2 corner who offers the length and recovery speed Minnesota typically seeks on the boundary. Should his medicals check out, Revel has high-ROI potential as an anchor in Brian Flores' secondary. For a Vikings team in need of secondary reinforcements, the added picks (via trade) and Revel's upside make this a calculated gamble for the quant-focused Adofo-Mensah.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: CB (28%), OL (24%), S (17%), DL (16%)
Offensive line depth remains a focal point for an Eagles franchise that thrives in the trenches, and Zabel's powerful run blocking, plus athleticism (second-highest NGS athleticism score among tackles) and position versatility make him an appealing option. With Lane Johnson in his mid-30s and Tyler Steen filling in at right guard for the departed Mekhi Becton, a guard/tackle prospect like Zabel who can play four spots in a pinch is a valuable insurance policy for a Super Bowl-contending franchise. More than likely, it's either OL or DL with GM Howie Roseman -- 10 out of his 13 first-round picks as the primary Eagles decision-maker have addressed the trenches (which excludes 2015, when Chip Kelly had control of the roster).
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (34%), OL (24%), S (17%), WR (9%)
