A.J. Green dominates the Week 1 opportunity report

Published: Sep 12, 2016 at 10:23 AM

Matt Harmon

Opportunity is the name of the game in fantasy football. Talent matters, of course, but we want players who see a healthy volume of targets and touches to anchor our lineups, especially in daily fantasy. Every week in the second season of the Opportunity Report, we'll look at all the passing targets for every NFL team and the percentage each player owns. Franchise will handle the backfield touches section this year and his Week 1 piece is tabbed above.

After Week 1 we have new data to work with and can dig into the passing distribution for each NFL team. The trick will be all about deciding what is a misnomer from the opening games and what is a new reality we should adopt.

Arizona Cardinals

The fantasy community spent all offseason trying to rush Larry Fitzgerald out of the No. 1 receiver spot in Arizona, none more than yours truly. That looks more than a little foolish after Carson Palmer leaned on Fitzgerald heavily against the Patriots. Fitzgerald shined taking 37 percent of his plays from the outside and 60 percent from the slot. The veteran receiver got more run downfield than he did in the closing months of 2015, with an average depth of target of 10.8, per Pro Football Focus.

Neither of John Brown or Michael Floyd had their best games in Week 1, as they collectively hauled in 36.4 percent of their targets. Floyd struggled to get open consistently and Brown didn't look fully re-integrated in the offense after missing the bulk of training camp with serious concussion issues. Bill Belichick dialed in to limit the Cardinals downfield passing attack, appearing more content to cede the middle of the field to Fitzgerald and David Johnson. No quarterback went downfield more than Carson Palmer last season, and while his air yards per attempt stayed relatively the same with 10.2 last night after 10.7 in 2015, his yards per completion fell from 13.7 in 2015 to 11.7.

Sunday night wasn't exactly the debut we had in mind for this dynamic Cardinals offense but given their opponent, there's no need to hit any panic buttons. With that being said, considering they have four tremendous options at the top of their passing game and solid players like J.J. Nelson and Jaron Brown in the shadows, this distribution could be dicey to predict week-to-week.

Atlanta Falcons

Julio Jones came into this game hobbled and didn't come out unscathed either, aggravating the ankle injury that limited him all week in practice. Jones saw just eight targets in this game after seeing fewer than double-digits just twice last season. After the game Jones said, "You're never going to be 100 percent anymore. I've played through things." All this goes to show that Mohamed Sanu has immense target upside if Jones were to ever miss time, and he did quite well with his chances on Sunday.

Even with Tevin Coleman lurking in the shadows this offseason to steal carries, Devonta Freeman still looked like a fine second-round fantasy pick because of the safe floor his passing game work provided. With that being said it was more than a little alarming to see Coleman out-target Freeman. It's one thing for the bigger, faster Coleman to snake some rush attempts, but if he's going to be a passing game fixture it makes this situation an all-out unpredictable committee.

Baltimore Ravens

10 offensive players for the Ravens received a target in Week 1, including three running backs. A confusing distribution among the Baltimore passing game players did not get clearer in Week 1. No wide receiver was on the field for even 70 percent of the team's plays:

Steve Smith - 66 percent
Mike Wallace - 65 percent
Kamar Aiken - 53 percent
Breshad Perriman - 31 percent
Chris Moore - 21 percent

It's hard to envision this wide receiver group as anything more than something that will change week-to-week. However, this game wasn't much of a shootout thanks to the Bills offensive ineptitude and more pass-heavy game scripts could bring more raw production for this unit. The only player who comes out of this contest with any clarity is Dennis Pitta. The veteran tight end hadn't played a down of football since September 21st, 2014 but was out on 82 percent of Baltimore's offensive plays. In one hell of a comeback story, Pitta was once a favorite target of Joe Flacco's and is absolutely worth a speculative add.

Buffalo Bills

News came down this morning that Sammy Watkins could miss some time in fear of his foot injury nagging him down the line, though it appears he'll play through the pain. He owns a large pie of this offense, seeing 27.3 percent of the team targets on Sunday. However, this is an offense that doesn't want to put the ball in the air much at all, and Watkins is a tremendous talent whose loss would be a net negative for the entire unit. Players like Robert Woods and Charles Clay would see an uptick in usage but don't fool yourself into thinking a Watkins injury is "good" for them. Woods is worth an end of the bench stash, but we'd be closer to out on the Bills passing offense altogether if Watkins misses time than anything else.

Carolina Panthers

Any thought that anyone but Kelvin Benjamin was the No. 1 receiver in Carolina was sharply dispelled in Week 1. Benjamin was supposed to be on a pitch count after struggling with conditioning but was out on 72 percent of the team's plays run in Denver and took a whopping 38.7 percent of the team's targets. Popular sleeper candidate Devin Funchess tied with Corey Brown for third among wide receiver snaps (52 percent) behind Ted Ginn (62 percent). Carolina is a strictly balanced offense with a near even run-to-pass play ratio. With that in mind, there just isn't any room in the distribution behind Benjamin and Greg Olsen for any weekly relevance.

Chicago Bears

Here's something no one expected: Kevin White took 98 percent of the Bears snaps while Alshon Jeffery took 95 percent. He also owned a higher percentage of the team targets. White didn't exactly show well, catching just three of his team-high seven targets and causing an interception on a misplayed route. It's clear White is a work in progress but this just goes to show how much the team wants him to succeed. Sunday was his first NFL action so expect him to take his lumps early. If the Bears continue to show this kind of faith in him and his play begins to stabilize, White could have a second-half of the season worth waiting on. Either way, this doesn't say much about Alshon Jeffery, who is still a total stud.

Cincinnati Bengals

This was an "as expected" moment. All offseason it was apparent that with the change in personnel we were headed for a massive A.J. Green season. For one week, at least, that looks like a strong prediction with Green owning the highest target share of any No. 1 receiver with 43.3 percent. The star receiver did this all while being covered by Darrelle Revis on the majority of his routes. Revis was on Green for 10 of his 12 targets and the Bengals receiver collected 10 catches for 152 yards and a score on those plays while Andy Dalton posted a passer rating of 152.1. This offense flows through Green, especially with Tyler Eifert on the shelf, rendering the rest of the Bengals players nothing more than ancillary fill-ins.

Cleveland Browns

The shocker here was Gary Barnidge dropping a goose egg. However, while the no catches were jarring, this actually wasn't too surprising of a development, considering Barnidge averaged close to a 6-80-1 line in the eight games with Josh McCown under center in 2015 and 4-50-0 line in the other eight. Similarly, Jordan Reed averaged 4-41 in games with Robert Griffin III from 2013 to 2014 and 7-77 in games he missed. Griffin is a deep passer and runner at heart, and that was true in Week 1. He finished with the second-highest air yards per attempt (11.0) and took off five times against the Eagles. Barnidge would have struggled to put up TE1 numbers with Griffin behind center, but of course, Griffin was placed on injured reserve following an injury coming out of the Browns opener. There's a buy-low window open now with McCown back as the starter.

Dallas Cowboys

If looking at Dallas' target distribution from Week 1 does anything but give you a headache, consider yourself lucky. It's simply inexcusable for Jason Witten and Cole Beasley to combine for 26 targets, with which they amassed a lovely 7.7 yards per reception, while Dez Bryant sees just five passes go his way. Bryant dominated the preseason, so the problem is clearly not with him. Dak Prescott certainly didn't look as flashy as he did in the preseason but the moment did not rattle him either. It's on the coaching staff to find ways to get their best player the ball, which quite frankly shouldn't be that hard. Yet, the Cowboys have never funneled the offense through Bryant despite his dominant play. He's never eclipsed 160 targets in a season, so we have little reason to expect his volume to change. Don't panic on Dez Bryant but be prepared to take these lumps.

Denver Broncos

No team has a shallower distribution that the Denver Broncos. Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas combined to see 56 percent of the team targets, with C.J. Anderson and Virgil Green making a small dent behind them. With Trevor Siemian throwing the second-fewest passes among starting quarterbacks in Week 1, there already isn't much volume to go around. Sanders and Thomas are high-floor, low-ceiling WR2s thanks to the distribution here.

Detroit Lions

Matthew Stafford threw 39 passes in Week 1, the seventh most of any starting quarterback. However, his air yards per attempt was the second-lowest of Week 1 with a 5.3 average. The Lions want to pick teams apart with the short passing game, which fits the personnel they've collected of good route runners and pass-catching running backs. It makes all these receivers relatively reliable options each week. Of course, the Colts defense looks like one the NFL's worst, so it remains to be seen how this approach works against more capable stop units.

After months of speculation, Marvin Jones led the team in targets during the opening week. Jones was also the only Lions player with an average depth of target over 10. His 12.6 aDOT dwarfed Golden Tate's 1.3, Anquan Boldin's 2.0 and Eric Ebron's 6.8. Not a blazing speedster, but a proficient receiver in traffic, Jones is the clear downfield threat for Detroit. He only caught four of his 10 Week 1 targets, but Jones is well on his way to a breakout season.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers offense came back with more of a whimper than a bang. The team overall still relied too heavily on Aaron Rodgers' ability to create plays outside of the offensive structure. There was, once again, not enough downfield passing as Davante Adams was the only one of the top three receivers who averaged over 10 yards per catch, mostly due to a freakish 29-yard touchdown strike from Rodgers. The distribution overall looked about what we should expect, though the tight ends and Adams will likely alternate weeks as the third target, but the offense still isn't firing on all cylinders.

Houston Texans

After seeing DeAndre Hopkins absorb over 190 targets in 2015, it was a bit jarring to see rookie Will Fuller out-target him in Week 1. The Texans clearly want to take advantage of Fuller's deep speed, as he posted a massive 22.4 average depth of target yesterday while averaging 21.4 yards per catch. The Texans still played fast, running 75 plays but were much more balanced than the first half of 2015 with a dead even rush to pass attempts ratio. The lack of overall passing volume, as well as the competition for targets, makes Hopkins a bit more of a back half top-12 receiver than a clear-cut elite WR1, which is what we should have expected all along.

Indianapolis Colts

Only Alex Smith, whose team went to overtime, dropped back to pass more than Andrew Luck on Sunday. This created an ideal situation for his pass catchers, as five players saw at least six targets. Expect the pass-heavy tendency to continue with the defense Indianapolis sports. It was clear that T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief were the clear top two threats, as they played 96 and 97 percent of the snaps, respectively. Moncrief is the short-area possession receiver, with 11.4 average depth of target, and Hilton is just about doing it all.

However, don't overlook that Phillip Dorsett mixed in with a clear role as the deep threat, playing 73 percent of the snaps and a 20.8 average depth of target. He should be owned across all formats and will have some big weeks here and there.

Dwayne Allen lost two red-zone touchdowns to Jack Doyle, but was clearly the top tight end playing on 70 percent of the team's snaps. Allen snagged a touchdown of his own and will push the TE1 rankings in this high-powered offense.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars spent most of their day funneling the offense through their best player, Allen Robinson, which is always a strong decision. Robinson saw 38.5 percent of the team targets, but only came down with six receptions. Sam Shields did a solid job against him on several routes, while a few Blake Bortles misfires cost him other chances. Even though Robinson's final fantasy numbers don't look great, just the fact that Jaguars fed him that sort of volume should put to ease worries from a ton of offseason regression debates.

It appears Julius Thomas and Allen Hurns will split the volume that Hurns held by himself when Thomas was out of the lineup last season. That will make both players dicey, touchdown-chasing plays on a week-to-week basis if the overall pass percentage does go down. However, with Chris Ivory currently hospitalized with an illness, this offense looks to once again be a unit fueled by its aerial attack.

Kansas City Chiefs

There was some buzz out of training camp that Spencer Ware was really working to become a better pass-catcher after ceding that work to Charcandrick West even when he took over the job late in 2015. It sure showed in Week 1. Ware made several big catches and even worked downfield, carrying an average depth of target of 6.9 (backs typically check in under 3.0). When Jamaal Charles returns he will command looks in the passing game, but the Chiefs will be hard pressed to put the Ware genie back in the bottle even when he does return.

Elsewhere, Chris Conley matching Jeremy Maclin in targets was a bit unexpected, but encouraging. He was the clear No. 2 throughout the preseason and that continued on Sunday. Conley played 86 percent of the team snaps, compared to a 69 percent rate of the workman-like Albert Wilson. We need to pay attention to Conley, who is a physical freak, if he's going to hold noticeable volume in this offense. However, do keep in mind that Alex Smith threw more passes than any other quarterback on Sunday. That is a feat we should not expect to repeat often.

Los Angeles Rams

If you watched a single second of the Rams' offense on Monday Night Football, you knew this wasn't going to be pretty. Tavon Austin turned his 12 targets into 13 yards, while chipping in just two yards as a rusher. If you'd like to somehow be optimistic about Todd Gurley's performance, at least he garnered three targets in the passing game, something that only happened four times in 2015. However, Benny Cunningham still played on 11 passing downs last night, and none of that happened in the fourth quarter when the game was long since decided. With the Seahawks and Cardinals on the docket in two of the next three games, this Rams offense isn't likely to improve anytime soon.

Miami Dolphins

It was once again the Jarvis Landry show with the third-year receiver handling a fat 37 percent share of the targets. Expect that to continue until someone steps up to take away targets on the outside. DeVante Parker was inactive with an injury and Kenny Stills committed one of the more egregious drops in recent memory.

Minnesota Vikings

All of the offseason chatter that Stefon Diggs would be the engine of the passing game did indeed come to fruition in Week 1. Diggs handled 27.2 percent of the team targets and was only rivaled by Kyle Rudolph's 24.2 percent share. The second-year wideout is an explosive player who runs crisp routes. Regardless of who the quarterback is, Diggs is on his way to a breakout season. Kyle Rudolph saw more than seven targets in just two games last season, so this was a new level of involvement for him. With new quarterbacks under center, perhaps Rudolph re-emerges as an important member of this aerial unit.

New England Patriots

The Patriots used three wide receivers on 41 of their plays last night, which was by far their most frequently deployed formation. Obviously, that is a direct result of Rob Gronkowski missing this game, which necessitated the move away from two tight end sets, but also for Martellus Bennett to stay home block. Bennett was on the field for 34 passing plays Sunday night but ran just 26 routes.

While the three receiver set might not be a mainstay of the offense, it did create opportunities for Malcolm Mitchell and Chris Hogan. The veteran was out for more snaps (79 percent) but it was still quite encouraging to see the rookie Mitchell already out there for 54 percent of the plays and tied for second on the team for targets. Giving such a healthy workload to a rookie who missed most of the preseason with an injury speaks quite a bit to how much the Patriots like Mitchell and his grasp on the system. Before long, he will make noise in this offense.

New Orleans Saints

Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead put on a show in Week 1. For one week at least, these two were the engines of the offense. Michael Thomas out-snapped Willie Snead (80 to 75 percent) but always ran two fewer routes. All three of these receivers will be big parts of the passing attack moving forward, and should get consideration as flex plays every week. Snead didn't come out of nowhere either, he established himself last year.

Two players didn't quite put forth the effort we expected: Mark Ingram and Coby Fleener. The free agent tight end caught just one pass despite playing 81 percent of the snaps, rolling over some of the concerns foretold from the preseason. Ingram lost passing down work to Travaris Cadet, who has bounced off and on the team for the last few years. Ingram was on the field for 14 passing plays while Cadet rolled out for 21. If that continues, it is a major blow to the safe floor Ingram provided last year.

New York Giants

For the third consecutive contest between the Cowboys and Giants, the Cowboys' sloth-like pace and desire to sit on the ball while bleeding the clock killed opportunities for all the Giants receivers. Expect them to see far more targets in other games going forward, it just seems that Dallas has a strong formula to slow down the pace of the game and prevent Odell Beckham and Eli Manning from leading an onslaught of points. It was absolutely fantastic to see Victor Cruz making catches once again after a near two-year absence from the game. Cruz was third on the team in wide receiver snaps with an 80 percent rate behind Sterling Shepard (95 percent), but the team used three wide receivers on 52 of their 54 offensive plays. The offense will flow through the air and Beckham, Shepard and Cruz will all get work.

New York Jets

The Jets are another team with a shallow passing distribution. Quincy Enunwa did make some noise with eight targets, however. He's worth monitoring because the Jets love to spread the field with multiple receivers, but don't have any established players behind Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker.

Oakland Raiders

As expected, Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper led the way for the Raiders in the passing game, handling 54 percent of the team targets. There is not much passing volume for others to soak up outside of the top two, thought Seth Roberts and Clive Walford look like players. We'll need to see if the Raiders take to the air as much as they did on Sunday when they find themselves in non-shootout game scripts. But we do know the Raiders have the horses in the pass game to throw it when needed.

Philadelphia Eagles

Next Gen Stats indicates that Jordan Matthews took 53 percent of his snaps out wide and 46 percent in slot, racked up three catches from the outside with four coming in the slot, and 38 percent of yards from the outside while 62 percent came from the slot. Matthews handled a whopping 37.8 percent of the team targets and carved up a woeful Browns secondary. He looked like a player ready to take the next step in an already productive career. The overall effectiveness of the Eagle offense can be a question, but Matthews certainly looked dialed in on Sunday. It's well past time for the public to re-write some narratives on Jordan Matthews' underrated career thus far.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Breaking news: Antonio Brown is still really good. Elsewhere on the Steelers' roster, we had two new contributors emerge on Monday night. Eli Rogers played on 69 percent of the snaps and was in the slot on 83 percent of his plays. Rogers' touchdown came on a bit of a fluke play where Sammie Coates misplayed the football and it landed in Rogers' lap in the end zone. However, make no mistake; there is absolutely a place for the former undrafted slot receiver in this offense. The Steelers played with three receivers on 44 of their plays last night, by far their most used package. When Markus Wheaton returns from injury, he will assume the flanker position leaving Rogers in place as the interior third receiver sending Coates back to the bench.

Jesse James looks to be taking advantage of Ladarius Green's unfortunate situation with the Steelers. James played on 100 percent of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps and garnered seven targets. While his 6.2 yards per catch doesn't look great, he did see two passes from Ben Roethlisberger inside the 10-yard line. He comes with touchdown potential every week in this offense if he will indeed be on the field this much.

San Diego Chargers

With Keenan Allen going on injured reserve today in one of the early crushing blows from the 2016 season, the San Diego offense took a big hit. Players like Travis Benjamin and Danny Woodhead will see more volume go their way, but it's always important to remember that losing an elite talent like Allen is a net negative for everyone in the offense. With that being said, Benjamin might be in line for the type of season he enjoyed in Cleveland last year, same for Woodhead and his 2015 output. Also, Tyrell Williams moves into the starting lineup and is a must-add off waivers.

San Francisco 49ers

Let's just for a minute revel in the fact that Blaine Gabbert shows up in the target distribution with a catch for -16 yards. Incredible. Bruce Ellington truthers, and no one more so than me, had to feel a sting every time the player the 49ers traded for to replace him, Jeremy Kerley, racked up one of his 11 targets. The slot receiver position has a history of high usage and production in Chip Kelly's offense, but given that the 49ers travel to play the Panthers and Seahawks the next two weeks, we can hold off on running to the waiver wire for Kerley. Torrey Smith's usage in Week 1 was disappointing for those expecting him to slide into the speed X-receiver spot that was so productive under Kelly in Philadelphia. Gabbert just doesn't have much willingness to test defenses downfield.

Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson threw a career-high 43 passes on Sunday, so keep that in mind when detailing this volume. Even though Tyler Lockett dropped two passes, which is out of character, he still saw more targets than Jermaine Kearse. Lockett also ran the same number of routes (45) as Kearse despite playing on eight fewer snaps. Let's hold off on throwing in the towel on Lockett breaking out this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans split the target share down the middle, but Evans was clearly the superior player in the game. Expect him to continue to shoulder more of the load as the season progresses. The tight end battle got exactly zero percent clearer after Week 1. Somehow, Luke Stocker led the team in tight end playing time but none of them took more than 58 percent of the snaps.

Tennessee Titans

What was clear in the preseason was cemented in Week 1; Tajae Sharpe is the No. 1 receiver on this team. The Titans offense betrayed themselves and cost the entire offense opportunities with two costly turnovers so what started as a strong showing for them went to waste. We didn't get to see Sharpe explode even though the team was chasing a lead, but he put up a solid level. If he holds a 24-plus percent share of the offense going forward he'll have plenty of big weeks when the offense does have to open up.

Washington Redskins

Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson were atop the pecking order for Washington and that was to be expected. The most interesting development was the utilization of a sneaky second-year receiver. Jamison Crowder played more snaps (81 percent to 69 percent) and saw more targets than Pierre Garcon last night. Washington clearly wants to spread the field with multiple options, as they used three wide receivers on over 80% of their plays. Crowder turned in a solid inaugural NFL season, finishing second to Amari Cooper in receptions among rookie receivers last year. If Crowder is headed for a role with regular volume this year, he could turn in a weekly floor of around five to six receptions in what will be a pass-heavy offense. The same could be said for Chris Thompson, who is Washington's clear passing down back. He out-snapped Matt Jones 39 to 19 and scored a rushing touchdown inside the five-yard line.

"You can rely on NFL.com's Touches and Targets column for great fantasy advice. Just like you can rely on FedEx Ground for fast and affordable shipping."

Matt Harmon is an associate fantasy writer/editor for NFL.com, and the creator of #ReceptionPerception, who you can follow on Twitter _@MattHarmonBYB_ or like on Facebook.

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