The Carolina Panthers have come to an agreement on a monster contract extension with Cam Newton, who landed a five-year deal worth $103 million that will pay him $67.6 million over the first three years. NFL Media Insider Ian Rapoport reports the extension contains a total of $60 million in guarantees.
So, will Superman soar, or turn into Clark Kent in his first season after the extension? And how could it affect his fantasy value? Here's how other recent quarterbacks have fared in the same scenario.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (2008):Big Ben signed a big extension in March 2008, one season removed from what was his best statistical season at the pro level. Unfortunately, he saw a decline in production for fantasy owners with 15 fewer touchdown passes and four more interceptions. Roethlisberger also lost seven of 14 fumbles, which remains the largest single-season total of his career. He also went from a No. 1 fantasy quarterback to a No. 2 heading into the 2009 campaign. It's worth noting that he signed a new extension this offseason as well, but will be returning to arguably the strongest offense he has ever been a part of.
Eli Manning, New York Giants (2009): Manning earned a huge contract extension in the summer of 2009, one season removed from throwing for 3,238 yards, 21 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. His numbers increased almost across the board in 2009, as Manning recorded what were then career-bests in passing yards (4,021) and passing touchdowns (27). Of course, he also tossed 14 interceptions and lost eight fumbles. Overall, though, Manning was better the season of his big deal.
Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (2009): Rivers turned what was a career campaign in 2008 into a massive contract extension the following summer. He would go on to throw for 4,254 yards with 29 total touchdowns and an impressive 269.16 fantasy points, which was good enough for him to finish seventh in points among quarterbacks. Rivers' numbers did tail off a bit starting in the 2011 campaign, but he wasn't a disappointment at all the season after signing his contract extension.
Drew Brees, New Orleans (2012): One of the elite quarterbacks in all of fantasy football, Brees finished second in fantasy points at his position in 2011 with a record 5,476 passing yards and 47 total touchdowns ... those totals were good enough for 391.64 fantasy points. While he saw very slight decreases in production following his big contract extension, Brees was still his typical awesome self with 5,177 yards and 44 total scores. But, can he continue to thrive at age 36?
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (2013): Flacco was one of several quarterbacks to land a massive contract in the 2013 offseason. Of course, it didn't hurt that he had just come off a Super Bowl victory. Never an elite fantasy signal-caller, he went from 14th in points at his position in 2012 to 19th in 2013. Flacco did throw for a then career-best 3,912 yards, but he also recorded a meager 19 touchdown passes and was intercepted 22 times. That's still his highest total at the pro level. He rebounded in 2014 with 3,986 yards, 27 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (2013): A fantasy superstar since taking over the reins in Green Bay, Rodgers turned a 2012 campaign with 4,295 passing yards and 41 total touchdowns into a lot of cheese the following offseason. Unfortunately, he missed seven games after signing his extension with a busted collarbone. Based on his totals, Rodgers still would have projected to score over 300 fantasy points and finish third among quarterbacks behind Peyton Manning and Brees.
Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (2013): Romo's extension made headline news, due in large part to the size of the deal and the fact that he's failed to lead the Cowboys deep into the postseason. The No. 8 fantasy quarterback in 2012, he slid to 10th after signing his new contract. Still, he scored just 18 fewer fantasy points while playing one fewer game compared to the previous campaign. Romo, who was solid at the end of the 2014 campaign, should be a nice draft bargain in all 2015 drafts.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (2013): Ryan cashed in on a career campaign in 2012, throwing for 4,719 yards with 33 total touchdowns while finishing seventh in fantasy points among quarterbacks. While he did see a notable decline in production the following campaign, Ryan played behind a bad offensive line and lost Julio Jones for most of the year. With Jones now entering a contract year of his own, Ryan (like Romo) could turn into a steal in upcoming fantasy football drafts.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (2013): Stafford's best fantasy season came in 2011, when he went for 5,000-plus yards and 41 touchdowns. His scoring totals took a dip the following season, but the Lions still extended him for five years and $76.5 million in the summer of 2013. His production was on par with what he had done during the previous campaign, as he had 3.32 more points. Much like Daenerys' army in Game of Thrones, Stafford's stats were unsullied after his big deal.
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (2014): Kaepernick earned a massive increase in salary a year after leading the Niners to the Super Bowl, but it didn't translate to an increase in production during the 2014 campaign. While his fantasy points declined fewer than 15 points compared to the previous season, Kaepernick fell from the ninth-best fantasy quarterback in 2013 down to No. 16 in 2014. He's now a mid-tier No. 2 fantasy quarterback heading into your 2015 fantasy drafts.
So, what does this all mean for Newton?
Well, there is no definitive statistical trend for quarterbacks in their first season after landing a major contract extension. That means we're left with pure numbers and opinion ... and those combined have me targeting Newton as a potential steal in 2015. Remember, last year was the first time in his career that he'd finished worse than fourth in fantasy points among quarterbacks. He also had several hurdles to clear, as he was coming off ankle surgery, suffered an injured rib and had to gain a rapport with a new corps of wide receivers.
While those obstacles were part of the reason he fell to 17th among fantasy quarterbacks last season, Newton did show some signs of his former fantasy studliness in his final three games. During that time, he averaged more than 25 fantasy points per game while rushing for a combined 197 yards and three touchdowns. I realize that's an unrealistic pace for him to continue in 2015, but I also don't expect Newton to be nearly as bad in the stat sheets as he was in the first half of 2014. In fact, I expect him to return to the top 10 at his position.
That would make him a serious bargain in your upcoming 2015 drafts.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to _**@MichaelFabiano**_ or send a question via **Facebook**!
