Of the 98 underclassmen and 102 college football prospects overall who left a year or more of NCAA eligibility on the table for the NFL draft, many will be left to wonder this week whether they made the right decision.
Much has been made of the 38 who went undrafted. Plenty more were third-day picks who might've earned a much better rookie contract had they waited another year. But there were also those whose timing was perfect. College Football 24/7 sifts through them all:
GOOD DECISIONS
Things turned out dandy for these five underclassmen who came out early for the draft.
Blake Bortles, QB, UCF
Draft position:Jaguars, 3rd overall (1st round)
Analysis: For a guy who seemed better known as "Not Andrew Luck" than by his own name after making his way through the pre-draft grinder, Bortles was ultimately drafted just two spots after Luck was in 2012: No. 3 overall to the Jacksonville Jaguars. As outcomes go, his couldn't have gone any better, particularly in a draft where quarterbacks generally slipped or endured a free-fall. On top of that, Bortles had all the pressure associated with being a rookie first-round quarterback removed when GM David Caldwell suggested he would be better off clipboarding his way through his first year in the NFL.
Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State
Draft position:Packers, 53rd overall (2nd round)
Analysis: The Green Bay Packers chose Adams with the No. 53 overall pick in the second round. No, there won't be first-round money for Adams, but that's not necessarily the only criteria for a good early-entry decision. Consider that Adams would have been operating without star quarterback Derek Carr had he returned for the 2014 season. There is no way Adams would have repeated his video-game numbers (131 catches, 1,718 yards, 24 TDs), and even with stats like that, he wasn't going to push his way into the first round. He went about as high as most projections suggested, and he's going to play for an elite quarterback who could use another receiving threat. That's a good outcome all around for Adams.
Odell Beckham Jr., WR, LSU
Draft position:Giants, 12th overall (1st round)
Analysis: Beckham's draft stock never seemed to take a step backward. He helped solidify himself as a first-round pick at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis with a 4.43 40-yard dash. Then he impressed again on LSU's pro day, and the buzz began to NFL clubs were increasingly finding more and more to like about the dynamic receiver and kick returner. Late first-round projections turned into mid-first projections, as high as the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 15 overall. Then he was ultimately chosen No. 12 overall by the New York Giants. Ever the riser, Beckham only wishes the draft's early-Mays scheduling, late as it was, had come even later. He might've been a top-10 pick with a couple more weeks to rise.
Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State
Draft position:Broncos, 31st overall (1st round)
Analysis: Roby was inconsistent at best last season for the Buckeyes, particularly early in the year, and had a brush with the law leading up to the draft that that might have spelled trouble for his draft stock or anyone else's. But in a draft that included five first-round picks at his position, Roby still managed to be among them, chosen by the Denver Broncos at No. 31 overall. He'll get a great chance to fill Champ Bailey's shoes in Denver.
Paul Richardson, WR, Colorado
Draft position:Seahawks, 45th overall (2nd round)
Analysis: Richardson parlayed a big junior season at Colorado, along with a 4.40 40-yard dash at the combine, into being the No. 45 overall pick of the Seattle Seahawks. Could he have gone higher next year had he stayed at Colorado another season? Maybe. But after missing the 2012 season with a torn ACL, he also had little reason to risk a second serious injury, which would have been much more costly. As it turned out, Richardson joined a Super Bowl-winning team that could use a replacement for departed free-agent Golden Tate.
BAD DECISIONS
These five would unquestionably have been better off returning to college for another year of seasoning.
Vic Hampton, CB, South Carolina
Draft position: Undrafted
Analysis: It's one thing when character concerns damage an underclassman's draft stock. It's another when that player not only goes undrafted but is also left out of the initial flurry of undrafted free-agent signings. That's the case for Hampton, who is apparently still looking for a free-agent deal. Concerns about Hampton's character dogged him throughout the pre-draft process, and he didn't help matters much by being involved in a nightclub scrum and being arrested for disorderly conduct during a heated argument with his sister.
Adrian Hubbard, LB, Alabama
Draft position: Undrafted
Analysis: Hubbard was projected mostly as a mid-round draft pick, but he never got the call Saturday, when the draft closed with Rounds 4-7. He wasn't especially productive as a junior with the Crimson Tide, making 33 tackles and three sacks last season. More of a supporting-cast member of the Alabama defense than one of its alpha dogs, Hubbard could have benefited from playing a larger role in Alabama's defense next season. He signed as an undrafted free agent with the Green Bay Packers.
Anthony Johnson, DL, LSU
Draft position: Undrafted
Analysis: One of the most highly-regarded defensive linemen in the Southeastern Conference coming into last season, Johnson never really lived up to the hype as a junior. In one of LSU's biggest games of the season, he was blocked all night by Alabama's All-SEC guard, Anthony Steen, who himself went undrafted. Johnson made seven sacks and 22 tackles for loss at LSU, numbers befitting an early entry had they come in a single season. For Johnson, instead, those were three-year totals. He went undrafted and signed with the Miami Dolphins on a free agent deal.
Chris Boyd, WR, formerly of Vanderbilt
Draft position: Undrafted
Analysis: The former Vanderbilt wide receiver had two choices upon his dismissal from Vandy for his alleged secondary involvement in a campus rape (Boyd was not present at the crime scene, but was charged with assisting a cover-up attempt). He could have turned pro early or played one more season at another college. He chose the former and went undrafted. He was reportedly picked up as an undrafted free agent by the Dallas Cowboys.
Isaiah Crowell, RB, Alabama State
Draft position: Undrafted
Analysis: A former SEC freshman of the year, Crowell was dismissed from Georgia on a firearms charge but revived his career at tiny Alabama State, but it wasn't enough to breathe life into his draft stock. There is no guarantee Crowell would have been drafted next year had he stayed in college, but at a smaller school such as Alabama State, his career could have used another 1,000 yards of traction, along with another year of good citizenship. Crowell was picked up as an undrafted free agent by the Cleveland Browns.
HARD-LUCK DECISIONS
Hard to blame these players for coming out early given their circumstances, but none of them were picked as high as expected, if at all.
Henry Josey, RB, Missouri
Draft position: Undrafted
Analysis: Who can blame Josey for coming out early? After all, he plays a devalued position and was coming off one of the most horrifically bad knee injuries anyone could endure on a football field. He certainly had no reason to subject himself to another bad injury without being paid for it, and had the early-entry blessing of Missouri coach Gary Pinkel. Josey checked out so well at his combine physical, he said doctors there were amazed. Still, Josey went undrafted. He was picked up by the Philadelphia Eagles.
Antonio Richardson, OL, Tennessee
Draft position: Undrafted
Analysis: Remember SEC Media Days last year? Richardson was one of its biggest presences and was lauded as the league's "Clowney Killer" after handling him for all but one play of their 2012 matchup. But it was Ja'Wuan James, Tennessee's other offensive tackle, whom scouts began to focus on once film from the 2013 season began to tumble in. Richardson made his decision to turn pro early last December, but questions about his health cropped up at the combine, and it was ultimately James who went in the first round of the draft. Richardson went undrafted and was picked up by the Minnesota Vikings.
Louis Nix III, NT, Notre Dame
Draft position:Texans, 83rd overall (3rd round)
Analysis: Nix was considered a late first-round pick in a lot of circles as the draft's finest nose tackle. However, he slid to the third round. Coming back to school for a fifth year to prove he could rush the passer on third down wasn't realistic for a 330-pound interior anchor, so his decision to come out can't be criticized too much. Nevertheless, he was one of the draft's most notable sliders.
Loucheiz Purifoy, CB, Florida
Draft position: Undrafted
Analysis:Dating back to last fall, Purifoy's draft tumble was probably longer and harder than any other. Once seen as a potential first-round pick, he abruptly announced he was turning pro early immediately after Florida's final regular-season game. It's a decision he perhaps should have put more thought into because he went undrafted. Along with character concerns, Purifoy's 4.61 40-yard dash at the combine didn't help matters. The Indianapolis Colts picked up Purifoy as a free agent.
Kelcy Quarles, DL, South Carolina
Draft position: Undrafted
Analysis: When you rack up 9.5 sacks as a defensive tackle in the SEC, nobody bats an eye when you don't want to come back to college for another year. That's a lot of pass-rushing production for a 300-pound interior player, and Quarles delivered just that last season for the Gamecocks. Quality defensive tackles are hard to find. The Detroit Lionswent all the way to Princeton to find one in this year's draft, and they've already got two of the best in Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley. Quarles' decision seemed sensible at the time. In hindsight, maybe not. He'll get his shot with the New York Giants after signing as an undrafted free agent.
Follow Chase Goodbread on Twitter @ChaseGoodbread.
