Let's take a break from trying to figure out which four teams will make the College Football Playoff and instead focus our attention for a few minutes on which conferences might not fill all their bowl slots.
Two of the Power Five leagues -- the Big 12 and SEC -- appear to be in danger of falling short. The Big 12 looks to be in trouble because it's going to be tough for four league teams (Iowa state, Kansas, Texas and Texas Tech) to get to the needed six wins. The SEC looks to be in trouble for a different reason -- it very easily could have two teams in the playoff and three or even four teams overall selected for "big" bowls.
As it stands now, our projection has each of the seven SEC West members qualifying for a bowl but just four East Division teams (the projection is Florida, Tennessee and Vanderbilt won't make it, though Florida will be looking good if it can beat Missouri on Saturday).
Conversely, the Big Ten and Pac-12 could have "extra" teams -- that is, one more bowl-eligible team than the league has contracted slots. How many from each league get invited to the playoff or a "big" bowl obviously will have an impact on whether the leagues can fill their slots. As it stands this week, the projection is neither league will send a team to the playoff.
Remember that four bowls have been added this season, so when you include the two playoff semifinal games that will be played in bowls, there are 38 bowls. That means 76 teams will be in the postseason -- or 59 percent of the 128 teams in the FBS ranks.
This season, the playoff semifinals are in the Rose and Sugar bowls, meaning the 13-person playoff selection committee also will pick the matchups in the Cotton, Fiesta, Orange and Peach bowls. While there are 12 teams involved in the six games, it's not necessarily the 12 highest-ranked teams by committee; instead, the highest-ranked team from outside of the "Power Five" conferences is guaranteed a slot in one of the games, even if it falls outside the top 12. (Just don't expect a non-Power Five school to be in a four-team playoff.) We're still high on Marshall for that spot; the Herd should finish unbeaten. While East Carolina appears to be better than Marshall, the thought here is that the Pirates' defense is going to cost them a game. The question then becomes does a two-loss ECU team trump an unbeaten Marshall squad?
When looking over these bowl projections, remember that a bowl's tie-in with a league doesn't necessarily mean it will get the third- or fourth-, etc., place team from the league; instead, it means it gets the third or fourth, etc., selection from that league. You'll also notice that there is no clear-cut designation for some of the league tie-ins; that's because the leagues and bowl organizers want a lot of leeway to put together what they consider the best possible matchup. For instance, Georgia and Nebraska have met in the past two postseasons; it's hard to imagine bowl organizers would match them for a third consecutive season.
Note: Start times listed are ET.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF MATCHUPS
ROSE BOWL
SUGAR BOWL
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
THE OTHER BOWLS
NEW ORLEANS BOWL
ROYAL PURPLE BOWL
NEW MEXICO BOWL
IDAHO POTATO BOWL
CAMELLIA BOWL
MIAMI BEACH BOWL
POINSETTIA BOWL
BOCA RATON BOWL
POPEYES BAHAMAS BOWL
HAWAII BOWL
HEART OF DALLAS BOWL
QUICK LANE BOWL
ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
MILITARY BOWL
SUN BOWL
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
PINSTRIPE BOWL
HOLIDAY BOWL
LIBERTY BOWL
RUSSELL ATHLETIC BOWL
TEXAS BOWL
MUSIC CITY BOWL
BELK BOWL
SAN FRANCISCO BOWL
PEACH BOWL
FIESTA BOWL
ORANGE BOWL
COTTON BOWL
CITRUS BOWL
OUTBACK BOWL
ARMED FORCES BOWL
TAXSLAYER BOWL
ALAMO BOWL
CACTUS BOWL
BIRMINGHAM BOWL
GODADDY.COM BOWL
Mike Huguenin can be reached at mike.huguenin@nfl.com. You also can follow him on Twitter @MikeHuguenin.
