Earlier this week, I wrote about "the theory of regression" and how it has affected running backs the season after scoring double-digit touchdowns for the first time in their careers (2006-2014). Suffice it to say, the research didn't elicit a whole lot of confidence in those runners.
Now it's time to look at the receivers. Remember, we had six (DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Doug Baldwin, Tavon Austin, Ted Ginn Jr., Allen Hurns) and two tight ends (Jordan Reed, Tyler Eifert) score double-digit touchdowns for the first time in their careers in 2015. So, will the wideouts and tight ends who met our parameters fare better than the running backs?
Read on to find out.
Between 2006 and 2014, the NFL has seen a total of 40 wide receivers and seven tight ends score double-digit touchdowns for the first time. That list includes a diverse group of players that range from Laurent Robinson to Alshon Jeffery and Visanthe Shiancoe to Dallas Clark. Of those 40 wideouts, a ridiculous 32 (80 percent) failed to score 10 or more touchdowns the following season. At tight end, five (71 percent) couldn't duplicate their end-zone efforts.
Now let's look a little deeper into the numbers.
Out of the 32 wideouts who failed to score 10 or more times after a double-digit touchdown season, the average decline in end-zone visits the following year was a frightening 6.9 scores (or 41.4 fantasy points). At tight end, the average drop was 5.8. Some can argue that these stats are skewed because it includes players who might have missed significant time due to injuries, so let's also take that into consideration. On average, our 32 wide receivers missed an average of 2.7 games the season after posting their first campaign with 10-plus scores. The tight ends missed an average of 0.8 contests.
Even if we focus on the 23 of our 40 wide receivers who played in 13 or more games in their follow-up campaign, the average decline in touchdowns is still seven (or 42 fantasy points). That includes massive drops from the likes of Braylon Edwards (2008), Calvin Johnson (2009), Brandon Marshall (2010), Victor Cruz (2013) and Mike Evans (2015). You might roll your eyes at Edwards and Cruz now, but a lot of fantasy fans drafted them in the first few rounds after their initial double-digit touchdown campaign. And as the mention of Megatron and Marshall indicate, this trend isn't limited to the mid-card jobbers. Since no tight end missed more than three games, there's no reason to dig deeper.
Now that we've looked at the "decliners," what about the eight wide receivers and two tight ends who were able to score double-digit touchdowns the year following their initial double-digit campaign?
That list of wideouts includes fantasy superstars like Roddy White (2010), A.J. Green (2010), Antonio Brown (2015), and Rob Gronkowski (2011), among others. Unlike the running backs, who experienced an average drop of four touchdowns, wideouts in our research did well the following season. In fact, six of them either matched or increased their touchdown totals. The average of the eight was an increase of 0.25 touchdown catches. At tight end, Gronkowski scored seven more times (17) while Julius Thomas equaled his previous season's total (12).
So what have we learned?
Well, as good as a wideout is during his breakout season in terms of touchdowns, there's a better chance than not that he will fail to amass the same number of end-zone visits the following season. That trend means fantasy fans should temper their touchdown expectations for the likes of Robinson, Hurns and Baldwin. I won't mention Hopkins, who I'm projecting to have another double-digit touchdown campaign in 2016. Among tight ends, Reed and Eifert are both extreme long shots to find the promised land 10 or more times due to this trend and the fact that neither has been durable.
Like I've said before, success is tough to achieve and often times harder to duplicate ... even at a position that is on the rise in the world of fantasy football.
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Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to _**@MichaelFabiano**_ or send a question via **Facebook**!
