- WHERE: NRG Stadium (Houston)
- WHEN: 4:30 p.m. ET | CBS, Paramount+, Nickelodeon’s NFL Wild Card Game Live from Bikini Bottom, NFL+
Jim Harbaugh is back in the postseason, and the Houston Texans are back in the comfort of their Saturday afternoon Wild Card Weekend slot. Giddy-up.
In each of their franchise's eight playoff appearances, the Texans have played in the wild-card opener on Saturday afternoon. It's worked out pretty well for Houston, going 5-2 in its previous seven first-round dances.
A year ago, the AFC South Champs pulverized a trendy, glamorous No. 5 seed, unleashing a 45-14 butt-kicking of the Cleveland Browns. DeMeco Ryans' defense smothered Joe Flacco, generating two interceptions, and C.J. Stroud diced up a good defense with three touchdown tosses.
It's a new year and a new opponent, but the keys endure for the home squad to silence all the boisterous doubters. Ryans' defense remains a bear and Stroud, while he hasn't played as well in Year 2, can still light up a defense when things get clicking.
Facing a Harbaugh squad, however, is a different beast. After a decade out of the league, he became the eighth coach to make the playoffs in his first season as head coach with two different teams (2011 SF, 2024 LAC). Harbaugh also became the fifth coach in NFL history to win 10-plus games in his first season as head coach with two different teams. Simply: The man can coach.
The swift turnaround in Harbs' first season was an indicator of the talent already on the roster and the coaching staff's ability to get the most out of their players.
When last we saw the Chargers in the playoffs, they were limply blowing a 27-point lead in Jacksonville in the 2022 wild-card round, the largest blown lead in club history. It's difficult to see a Harbaugh-led club collapsing in such a disastrous fashion.
The former Michigan coach will likely walk into NRG Stadium on Saturday awash in fond memories, as it's the site of his Wolverines' 2024 National Championship victory. Picking up his NFL playoff return where he left off in his college run would be an apropos plot. Of course, Ryans' club will have a lot to say about how that next chapter is written.
Here are three things to watch for when the Chargers visit the Texans in Saturday's playoff game:
1) Can C.J. Stroud right the ship in the postseason?
It's no secret that Stroud hasn't enjoyed the same success as his all-world rookie campaign. His numbers have shrunk across the board:
- 2023: 273.9 passing YPG; 8.2 pass YPA; 23-5 pass TD-INT ratio; 38 times sacked
- 2024: 219.2 passing YPG; 7.0 pass YPA; 20-12 pass TD-INT ratio; 52 times sacked
Part of those issues come with a receiving corps that has dealt with injuries from start to finish. The main culprit has been a sieve offensive line that has led to free rushers and a sped-up quarterback.
Stroud's 109 QB hits were the second-most among quarterbacks in 2024, behind only Joe Burrow (122). Stroud (52) also took the second-most sacks (only Caleb Williams, 68, had more)
To get back on track, Stroud must get better protection Saturday against Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. The second-year QB must also play calmer in the pocket and negate the wayward accuracy that plagued him at points during the season.
It won't be easy, as the Texans face a Chargers defense that allowed 17.7 points per game in 2024, the fewest in the NFL. L.A. allowed 20 or fewer points in 13 games in 2024, most in the league.
Stroud has struggled against top-tier defenses. He had a 6-7 TD-INT ratio versus top-10 scoring defenses this season, as the Texans went 1-5 against such clubs (the only win came against Miami). Per Next Gen Stats, Stroud had nine pass TDs and 10 INTs versus zone coverage in 2024 (11 pass TD, 2 INT, 101.9 passer rating vs man coverage). The Chargers defense played zone coverage at a 79.4 percent rate in 2024 (the fourth-highest in the NFL).
The stats don't look pretty for Stroud and the Texans, but the playoffs are an opportunity to re-write the narratives. Few had Houston winning so convincingly against a great Browns defense a year ago. The Texans could flip the script once again at home.
Another narrative Stroud could dash upon the rocks: Beating Harbaugh, against whom he went 0-2 while at Ohio State (2021 and 2022).
2) Justin Herbert against the Texans' stingy D
Herbert set a career-high in pass yards per attempt (7.7), TD-INT ratio (23-3), and passer rating (101.7 -- first time over the 100 mark for a season) in 2024. He attempted fewer passes per game than any season in his career and was more efficient.
The explosives remained, and Herbert showed off the uncanny ability to make the jaw-dropping play, but Harbaugh and Greg Roman helped the big-armed QB become more efficient while plummeting his INT percent to a league-low 0.6%
The end of the season proved that the Chargers are wary of leaning on Herbert when the ground game is stymied. He attempted 30-plus pass attempts in seven of his final eight games (just three in the first 9). The QB responded with 2-plus pass TDs in each of his final four contests, the longest such streak for Herbert since Weeks 11-15, 2021. The lesson: L.A. can lean on Herbert's cannon if needed, but they'd prefer to be more balanced.
The key for L.A. will be keeping Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. off Herbert's back. Hunter generated 12.0 sacks (T-5th in NFL), 23 QB hits (T-11th) and 90 QB pressures (second-most). Hunter is the first Texans player to have 90+ pressures since 2018. Anderson, meanwhile, tallied 11.0 sacks (T-10th in NFL) and 19 QB hits.
Ryans' defense generated a pressure rate of 37.8 percent, second highest in the NFL. With a front that can get after the QB and a stingy secondary led by Derek Stingley Jr. and impressive rookies Kamari Lassiter and Calen Bullock, Houston has made some good quarterbacks look pedestrian this season. Josh Allen had his worst game of the year against Houston. Jared Goff threw five INTs. Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love, Lamar Jackson -- none had particularly great days throwing the ball. The Texans allowed just one 300-yard passing performance all season (Week 11 vs. Dallas).
Chargers offensive tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt will play massive roles in how Saturday's game unfolds. According to Next Gen Stats, 37 offensive tackles had 500+ pass-block snaps in 2024. Slater allowed 39 QB pressures in 2024, the third-fewest among left tackles (min. 500 PB snaps). Alt allowed 37 QB pressures in 2024, the third-fewest among RTs (min. 500 PB snaps). If the duo can keep Herbert mostly clean and the interior, which has been the struggle area for L.A., finds stability, it will provide Herbert chances to take his shots.
3) Which run game will churn out the yards?
It's no secret that Joe Mixon has been the straw that stirred the Texans' offensive drink for most of the season. He finished in the top 10 in rush yards per game and scrimmage yards per game. He was the first Houston player with 20-plus touches per game since Lamar Miller in 2016. Despite missing three games, Mixon led the Texans with 1,016 rush yards, 11 rush TDs and 1,325 scrimmage yards.
However, as the season progressed and defenses realized Houston was weak as a front-side blocking unit and started to take away Mixon's back-side cuts, the explosive plays shrank. The running back generated 32.2 rush yards per game and zero rush TDs in the season's final four games. He was third in the NFL with 113.1 scrimmage yards from Weeks 1-14.
If Mixon can't churn out yards, life will be much more difficult on Stroud. The Chargers have been a middling rushing defense for most of the season, allowing 117.5 rush yards per game (14th in the NFL). That figure would be worse if not for the 39 yards rushing by a limp Las Vagas Raiders rushing attack in Week 18. The Chargers allowed 11 games of 100-plus rushing yards, including three of 180-plus yards.
On the flip side, J.K. Dobbins' return from injured reserve gives the offense back its engine. The Chargers have averaged more than 45 more rush YPG in 2024 when Dobbins plays in 2024 (121.8 rush YPG when Dobbins plays, 74.8 rush YPG when he does not play). The shifty back is the biggest L.A. threat to hit a home run out of the backfield and can pick up the tough yards as well.
When Dobbins was on the shelf, the offense struggled to move the chains consistently, forcing Herbert into more low-percentage passing situations. Expect Harbaugh and Roman to saddle up their top back early on Saturday. Houston allowed 114.0 rush yards per game over the course of the season (11th best) but have been gashed at times, allowing eight games of 100-plus yards, with four over 180.
