Colts burning fantasy question:What value will Joseph Addai have in 2009?
There were a high number of big-name disappointments in fantasy football last season. Whether it was Ben Roethlisberger, Larry Johnson, Braylon Edwards or Kellen Winslow, every single offensive skill position seemed to have a prominent name that failed to meet the expectations of owners.
Colts top-5 fantasy players
However, there might not have been a bigger bust than Joseph Addai.
The veteran entered last season as one of the top running backs in fantasy land, and no one could argue with that lofty status. After all, Addai was coming off a 2007 season that saw him record 41 receptions, 1,436 scrimmage yards and 15 total touchdowns.
He also played in an offense led by the great Peyton Manning, so it was nearly impossible for opposing defenses to stack the line of scrimmage to stop the run.
But despite his past success and the advantage of a Manning-led offense, Addai just couldn't get things going.
While he did score four touchdowns in his first four games, Addai averaged just 52 rushing yards before sustaining a hamstring injury against the Ravens in Week 6. He was forced to miss his next two starts before returning to work in Week 9. Over the next six games, Addai averaged a mere 54 rushing yards and scored just two touchdowns. He injured his shoulder in the last game of that stretch and would miss most of the final three weeks.
When the smoke in the Colts backfield cleared, Addai would finish with just 99 fantasy points on NFL.com.
That ranked him 39th in points among running backs, behind backups like Chester Taylor, Jerious Norwood, Leon Washington and Mewelde Moore. Furthermore, his own handcuff in fantasy drafts, Dominic Rhodes, outscored Addai by 24 points and was a far more valuable asset for owners down the stretch in their quest for a league title.
The Colts let Rhodes leave as a free agent during the offseason, but the addition of Connecticut's Donald Brown with the 27th overall pick in April's draft seemed to put a dagger into the heart of Addai's fantasy value for 2009 drafts.
Or did it?
New coach Jim Caldwell will continue to utilize Addai as his No. 1 running back, so the rookie has no chance to earn the top spot on the depth chart. What's more, Addai has never really been a true featured back at the NFL level, so he can produce good numbers even if he's in a shared backfield.
That was apparent in 2006, when Addai saw just over 51 percent of his team's carries but still finished 10th in fantasy points among running backs on NFL.com.
Addai experienced an increase in carries during his breakout season of 2007, making up for 58 percent of the total rushing attempts. While he won't see that many carries with Brown in the mix, there's still no reason to believe that Addai can't at least duplicate his 2006 totals (1,081 yards, eight total touchdowns) this season.
Another factor in Addai's favor is motivation for future financial gain in what is a make-or-break campaign. If he is unable to avoid injuries and loses more work to Brown, he'll be seen as little more than a brittle, risk-reward back and a gamble for others teams that might look to sign him after the 2010 season.
But if Addai can avoid the trainer's room and put up good numbers, as he did in his first two seasons, he'll have more value around the league.
Fantasy leaguers expecting Addai to re-establish himself as an elite fantasy runner will likely be disappointed, but that doesn't mean he can't be a nice draft value. Due to his injuries and last season's failures, Addai is almost certain to be undervalued in drafts. In fact, he could still be on the board in the middle rounds in countless leagues.
If you do decide to take a chance on Addai, expect him to produce somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,000-1,100 rushing yards with five to seven touchdowns. Targeting Brown as a handcuff in the middle rounds is also a smart move.
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