It might surprise you to know that both Peyton Manning and David Garrard have the same clutch passer rating. When you look at how both players performed on third down to either make a first down or a touchdown, they both sit right behind Tom Brady with a .500 success rate. Teams rarely blitz either quarterback. Garrard has excellent escapability and Manning has such a quick release that it often proves futile.
Manning will do a better job of turning drives into touchdowns than Garrard will, and that is probably because of the receivers the Jaguars quarterback has to work with game in and game out. Manning has 29 of his 50 drives wind up in a score of some type while Garrard only has 18 of his 47 drives culminate in a score.
</center> David Garrard has the
Jaguars off to a fast start, and that success wasn't totally unexpected.
**Full story ...**
The Jaguars defense has to do more to support Garrard than the Colts defense has to do to back up Manning. The Jacksonville quarterback has had 10 dropped passes in just 136 attempts while Manning only has seven drops in 29 more throws than Garrard. Once again, the quality of the Jaguars receivers could really come into play if this game gets down to a two-minute situation for Jacksonville. Staying out of critical third-down situations can help avoid the pressure on the Jacksonville receivers but once again the Colts do a better job on first downs than the Jags.
If you like the Colts ...
1. The Colts have only turned the ball over three times this year (No. 1 in the NFL).
2. The Colts defense only gives up 278 yards a game (fifth in the NFL).
3. Joseph Addai has five rushing touchdowns and is No. 2 in the NFL despite already having a bye week and missing a game.
4. The Colts pass defense is ranked third in the league, giving up just 173 yards a game.
5. Dallas Clark caught a touchdown vs. Jacksonville last year and has a touchdown reception in four straight games in '07.
6. Garrard has been sacked 15 times while Manning just three times.
7. Opposing receivers average just 8.6 yards per catch against the Colts.
If you like the Jaguars ...
1.Maurice Jones-Drew has more than 200 yards and three touchdowns in the last two games.
2. Jones-Drew had more than 100 yard rushing in both Colts games last year.
3. The Jaguars had 457 yards of offense last week against the Texans.
4. Last year, Peyton Manning only threw 1one touchdown pass in 81 attempts vs. Jacksonville.
5. Last year, Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne did not catch a touchdown pass against Jacksonville.
6. David Garrard has not thrown an interception this season.
7. Adam Vinateri, the Colts' kicker, has had two extra points blocked.
Key matchups
1. Colts TE Dallas Clark vs. SS Sammy Knight: Clark is on pace to destroy the Colts' receiving records for a tight end and leads the team in touchdown receptions with five. By the way, that's the same number Wayne and Harrison have combined for. Knight was a late addition to the roster because of injuries, but he has played well leading the team in tackles the past few weeks. Look for Manning to go after this matchup a number of times throughout the game.
2. Colts WR Reggie Wayne vs. CB Brian Williams: Rasheen Mathis will line up on Harrison on the opposite side. Harrison is coming off a knee injury and Jacksonville will not roll coverage to him unless Mathis struggles. Williams can't expect much safety help when Clark is in the slot next to Wayne. Look for a number of deep out routes to Wayne against soft coverage especially in third-down situations.
3. Colts LG Ryan Lilja vs. DT John Henderson: The key to the Jaguars defense against Manning is to get great push up the middle and eliminate Manning's ability to step up in the pocket and throw. John Henderson has some back issues, but is still a mighty force inside. Lilja may get little help as center Jeff Saturday may have to help on the other big defensive tackle, Marcus Stroud. The Jaguars want to get Manning's feet moving and flush him out of the pocket. It starts up front with this matchup.
4. Colts DE Dwight Freeney vs. LT Kaliff Barnes: The Colts should do enough on offense to force Garrard into more throws than his 23 per game and that may expose Barnes. Freeney needs to get after the young quarterback and force his first interception of the year, or continue the 2.5 sacks a game the Jaguars give up.
5. Colts MLB Gary Brackett vs. RB Maurice Jones-Drew: Brackett isn't alone in controlling the Jacksonville running game by any means. However, when a team tags 375 yards rushing on you the year before, the middle linebacker takes it personal. Brackett is a speed player and Jones-Drew is a powerful runner. Jones-Drew and Taylor will get their yards, but it better add up closer to 100 than 400 this time. Jones-Drew has a 76-yard run and Taylor has a 57-yard gallop, so the big play is always an issue in this game.
When the Colts have the ball
Manning will take the run when the defensive read dictates he should. That's why the Colts average 142 yards a game on the ground. When he sees seven in the box or even six in the box vs. his one-back sets it calls for a run, but the Jaguars defense against the run works with a blocker for every defender. Quick screens and delayed draw plays may be the way to go against this front.
The Jacksonville defense has the ability to collapse a pocket, and expect Manning to use the quick passing attack from the shotgun to avoid the pressure. Unless Jacksonville gives up one of the four rushers, there will be cracks and seams in the underneath routes which he can take advantage of on a consistent basis. Opposing teams average almost 12 yards a reception against Jack Del Rio's team, so look for short completions and a good run after the catch package.
Jacksonville has figured out how to slow the Colts offense down and probably won't change too much from last year. There will be an occasional pressure call featuring linebacker Mike Peterson, but Manning should see that coming. He must also be aware that his left tackle, rookie Tony Ugoh, needs help and it has to come in the form of a quick pass rather than an extra blocker. The Colts must spread the Jags defense out with one back and empty sets.
When the Jaguars have the ball
Jacksonville has only passed the 20-point mark twice this season. They are more inclined to play the field position game with a stout defense and a solid running game. For their 159 rushing plays in five games (33 per game) they only have three rushing touchdowns. Dennis Northcutt is their go-to receiver, but he only has 19 receptions and one touchdown. Last year, the Jags were never in a position to have to play serious catch up against the Colts and that is critical in this game. Garrard needs to move the chains with his feet at least three or four times in this game. He has already run it 30 times at a 4.5 yards-per-carry clip and his scramble dimension is a must in this game.
The Colts defense lost so many starters going into this season that most people felt it would be difficult to repeat as Super Bowl champions. GM Bill Polian knew better, as newcomers have actually made the defense better. DT Ed Johnson -- an undrafted rookie -- is playing well and needs a big game against this rushing attack. LB Freddie Keiaho is coming off a concussion, but practiced and he is a playmaker. The corners are new, but they more than hold their own and should continue against the Jacksonville receivers. As always the key to the Colts defense is in the hands of safety Bob Sanders. Sanders has the same effect on a game that Troy Polamalu has on the Steelers defense. Garrard is going to have to locate him every single play. Don't be surprised to see Jacksonville try and run away from him all night long.
Bottom line
Last year, the Colts lost every divisional road game. It has been a priority to fix the problem. Indianapolis has already beaten Houston and Tennessee away from the RCA Dome and this is the final piece to the most embarrassing part of their great 2006 season. They saved the hardest challenge for last with the Jags. The Colts are coming off a bye and have had two weeks to get the team healthy, and their recent history of 4-1 record off the bye is a good sign. Problem is the only loss off a bye came against the Jaguars in 2004 when they lost 27-24.
Jacksonville only gives up 11 points a game and the Colts have only scored 26 points a game on the road, which is 11 less than how they do at home. On the other hand, Jacksonville hasn't played a quarterback anywhere close to Manning and he presents problems Joey Harrington, Jay Cutler, Damon Huard and Matt Schaub didn't present.
This game will be close and the score should be close to something like 24-17. I think Garrard will throw his first interception, Manning will get sacked a few times, Jones-Drew will have a big run but in the end I'll stick with the Colts to keep pace with the Patriots in the battle for home field advantage.
