There are people working on analytics in the NFL, but the scope is not as prevalent as it is in baseball.
"It still is rather nascent," said Cynthia Frelund, NFL Network's first analytics expert. "Let's put it this way. Nobody's making a movie starring Brad Pitt about it for football."
Frelund, though, has a request if there is a NFL movie version of Moneyball.
"When they cast me, I hope they use Jennifer Lawrence," Frelund said.
Indeed, Frelund is breaking new ground in breaking down the numbers in the NFL. Every week, she is featured on NFL Media's various platforms. Frelund appears on NFL Fantasy Live Monday-Friday (4:00 p.m. ET on NFL.com and NFL Now; 5:00 p.m. ET on NFL Network) and every Sunday on* NFL GameDay Morning* at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Frelund (@cfrelund on Twitter) has an ultimate goal for her role in her first season with NFL Network. "I want people to love the numbers in the NFL the same way they do in baseball," Frelund said.
Frelund, who has a MBA in predictive analytics from Northwestern University, combines her two passions: Football and statistical analysis. The native of Okemos, Mich. first saw the possibilities when she worked for then NFL chief financial officer Anthony Noto in 2008. She did research on proposals for an 18-game regular season and the new rookie pay scale, among other projects.
Frelund said it was an eye-opening experience.
"We were able to evaluate these ideas in a really pragmatic and quantitative way," Frelund said. "There are cool stories you're able to tell in a way that is more than just regular logic."
From there, a stint at the Disney ABC Television Group led to her working two years as a sports predictive analytics analyst for Disney-owned ESPN. Earlier this year, she jumped at the opportunity to focus just on football for NFL Network.
The job, though, still has a wide scope as she breaks down all 32 teams every week. It starts with her "watching a ton of game film." Her analytics look at such things as where a player is lined up and whether a team is in man-to-man or zone. She also uses a special resource that comes with working for NFL Network.
"There are a ton of former players around here," Frelund said. "I always can go, 'Hey, Maurice Jones-Drew, what happened here?'"
Then Frelund plugs in a stream of statistics and numbers to fortify her research. Learning how to write code, she says, makes the process quicker.
Frelund ultimately winds up with 10,000 computer simulations on each game. And if a key player suddenly is ruled out for a game late in the week, she does the simulations all over again.
Frelund boils down her analysis for the viewers. For instance, she predicted 4-6 San Diego would record a 24-22 victory at Houston on Sunday. She based her forecast, in part, on the Chargers' success against teams that play a 3-4 defense. Fredlund also felt Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler struggles against teams that have a dominant pass rusher like San Diego's Joey Bosa. Sure enough, she was right with the Chargers taking a 21-13 win.
"Everyone can read a box score," Frelund said. "You can see someone had 7 catches for 100 yards. That's not very helpful. I try to bring in the context and perspective of strategy. So when you watch a game, you can say, 'She said that would happen.' It makes you feel more connected."
Frelund also uses her numbers to base her rankings for her fantasy forecasts. However, she says, unlike baseball, the various elements are far more unpredictable for football.
"In baseball, either it is a hit or not a hit," Frelund said. "In football, 22 different things are happening at the same time (with 22 players on the field). I like to say I have empathy for my numbers." Frelund thinks the Cleveland Brownshiring Paul DePodesta as its chief strategy officer could be a game-changer. DePodesta made a name for himself as one of the early numbers gurus in baseball.
"He brings this new spotlight to analytics to the NFL," she said.
Frelund clearly is part of the trend. While she enjoys working for NFL Network, she does leave the door open to eventually work for a team. In fact, sometimes she feels as if her on-air work "is an audition" for a general manager looking to do more with analytics.
"I'd love to work for a team with the right role, the right general manager, the right chemistry," Frelund said. "I'm not looking to tell anyone what to do. I want to be a framework, to help set the parameters, for someone to go ahead and make their decisions."
