Every season, we do our best to predict who the big sleepers and breakout candidates are going to be. Every season, we get a few of them wrong -- very wrong. But just because a certain player goes bust one year doesn't mean they'll be a bust forever. Welcome to "Bust-a-Move", where we're breaking down some of 2014's biggest fantasy football disappointments to determine if you can expect some stat sheet salvation in 2015.
In 2012, Doug Martin was a fantasy find as rookie. The "Muscle Hamster" burst onto the scene with nearly 2,000 scrimmage yards and 12 total touchdowns. He finished second to Adrian Peterson among running backs and punctuated his arrival with a blistering 51-point performance (251 rush yards, 4 TDs) in a Week 9 win over the Oakland Raiders. The following season, Martin's name was on the lips of fantasy managers looking to score a young playmaking running back at the top of the draft.
Unfortunately, 2013 didn't possess the same type of magic. Martin had a nice Week 2 with 144 rushing yards, but a torn labrum ended his season after just six games. He finished the campaign with 456 rushing yards, one touchdown and a paltry 56.20 points -- just five more points than he tallied in that epic contest against the Raiders. But injuries are a part of the game, right? It was just a regrettable situation that befalls even the greats of the game. Certainly there was reason to think that Martin could rebound in 2014.
His final line in 2014: 494 rushing yards, 2 TDs, 67.80 fantasy points. Welp.
In reality, Martin has been less muscle and more hamster for the past two seasons. How much of that was his fault and how much of it can be corrected? Our "Bust-a-Move" series concludes with another dive into NFL Game Rewind to figure out whether Martin can get back to a position of fantasy relevance.
What went wrong
You don't need to watch very long before realizing that part of Martin's problem in 2014 was playing behind an offensive line that was, well ... offensive. More often than not, it seemed as though Martin was forced to make at least one man in the backfield miss before ultimately struggling for a minimal gain. Seeing the Bucs rushers continually plow straight ahead into a front five that failed to consistently open holes was sort of like sitting through Season 2 of "True Detective" -- it's not nearly entertaining enough to justify why you keep subjecting yourself to it.
That trainwreck bore itself out in the stats. The Bucs averaged a paltry 3.9 yards per rushing attempt, placing themselves in the bottom half of the league in that category. Martin was certainly not immune to that condition as 88 of his 134 rushing attempts -- nearly 66 percent -- were for fewer than four yards. This probably contributed to why Martin at times looked unsure of himself when approaching the line of scrimmage. When there aren't a lot of holes to run through, it's natural that you start to wonder if, when and where they will appear.
It's probably also fair to say that Martin's struggles also were owed to a lack of opportunity. It's become somewhat cliché to say that opportunity is the lifeblood of fantasy success, but things become clichés for a reason -- they're usually based in truth. Martin posted 319 carries as a rookie, fourth-most in the NFL that season. Before suffering his shoulder injury, he was on pace for 339 rushing attempts. In 2014, that number fell off a cliff to 137 rushes in 11 games.
The Buccaneers as a group ran the ball just 353 times -- second-fewest in the league last year. That was mostly because Tampa was frequently trailing and needed to abandon the run, but it also meant fewer attempts for their running backs. Those rushing attempt numbers got even smaller once Lovie Smith's offense started splitting touches among three backs.
That especially hurts Martin, who has shown to be a volume runner ever since his days at Boise State. In his final collegiate season, Martin averaged 20 carries per game on his way to 1,299 yards and 16 rushing scores. Even during his disappointing 2014 season, some of his best games came in contests where he had 14 or more carries. Martin has good burst, but his lack of breakaway speed means he isn't exactly a home run threat. He's a player who will need 15-20 carries to consistently make an impact. That wasn't going to happen in last season's Bucs offense.
What must improve
An upgrade to the offensive line would be a nice start and the Bucs did make a concerted effort to do that in the offseason. After taking quarterback Jameis Winston with the first overall pick, Tampa Bay's next two picks were spent on offensive linemen -- tackle Donovan Smith and center Ali Marpet. Their primary job will be to protect Winston, but they'll also need to help power a running game that was among the NFL's worst last season. If it happens, Martin will certainly benefit.
Beyond that, it might just be as simple as getting Martin some more touches. The more you watch him on tape, you realize that there doesn't appear to be much wrong with him as a player. He still can be explosive through the holes when they materialize. But it's asking an awful lot to have an effective running game when your lead back is only getting 12 carries per game. The days of running backs seeing 25-30 carries every week are gone -- DeMarco Murray led all backs last season at 24.5 attempts per contest -- but 15 rushes seems like a pretty reasonable number. If Martin can approach that in 2015, there might be more reason to be excited.
What we expect
In the past couple of seasons, the Buccaneers have done a lot to upgrade their passing game. Last season, they selected a pair of pass-catchers. This season, they added a quarterback and some offensive linemen. That doesn't bode well for Tampa Bay leaning on its running game. As long as they're not being blown out on a weekly basis, there's a chance for Martin and his rushing cohorts to see more carries but it doesn't seem likely that he'll get the type of touches needed to return to the plateau he reached as a rookie.
Verdict: It wouldn't be surprising to see Martin's numbers improve this season. But if you're drafting him as anything more than a fourth running back, you're doing it wrong.
Marcas Grant is a fantasy editor for NFL.com and a man who never does anything out of hunger. Not even eating. Tweet him insane Frank Semyon quotes -- real or imagined -- or fantasy football questions @MarcasG.
