Each Monday, Pat Kirwan provides six observations from Sunday's action.
How far can the Jets go?
The Jets have yet to host a playoff game in the Rex Ryan era, and they're on the same path this year -- if they even make the playoffs. They are 1-5 against winning teams, and some ongoing concerns surfaced in Sunday's win over the Bills.
Mark Sanchez's four touchdown passes were impressive after a week in which his head coach took reps away to "motivate" him, but the reality is that Sanchez failed to complete 50 percent of his passes. The Jets running game was alive and well against the Bills, but they still average fewer than four yards a carry for the season.
The Jets are chasing the Bengals right now for the last AFC wild-card spot and they only play one team with a winning record down the stretch. The Bengals still have to play three quality teams -- Pittsburgh, Houston and Baltimore. Is Cincinnati the Jets' real competition, or is it Tennessee (6-5, just like New York) or Denver (also 6-5, with a win over the Jets in their pocket)? The Jets let the Bills get too close to them considering all the injuries Buffalo has right now. Don't line up for those playoff tickets yet, New York fans.
The road to the Super Bowl might go through Foxboro
New England is as hot on offense as the Packers right now. The Patriots' outside receivers might not be as good as what the Packers throw at you, but their inside core receivers present many problems. The Patriots are as effective as Green Bay at keeping good defenses off balance with their no-huddle attack. In Sunday's win over Philadelphia, New England had great balance with 36 runs and 35 passes. And they played on a short field, thanks to punter Zoltan Mesko's 48.3-yard net average.
After this weekend's games there are four AFC teams with 8-3 records -- the Patriots, Ravens, Steelers and Texans. Considering the quarterbacks and the remaining schedules, I like New England to win the battle for home-field advantage in the playoffs. The remaining teams on their schedule have a combined 16-35 record.
Can anyone stop the Packers?
The most popular question about the Green Bay Packers these days is, Will they go undefeated? Thanksgiving Day's win over the Lions gave them their first 11-0 record in club history. The Packers are the 11th team to get to 11-0 -- eight of the previous 10 made it to the Super Bowl, but only five of them won the Super Bowl.
What do the 2011 Packers have to work on before they can hoist the Lombardi Trophy again? They have to run the ball more effectively but not necessarily more often. When the Packers play teams with comparable scoring power, those teams need to be kept off the field late in games. Detroit sacked Aaron Rodgers twice in 35 pass plays and hit him another four times. Right now, Rodgers is being sacked once in every 15 pass attempts, and the Giants -- who have the best pass rush in the NFL -- are up next. Protecting Rodgers is the key to winning the Super Bowl, not going undefeated in the regular season. Ask the Houston Texans or the Chicago Bears how they feel right now without their starting QB.
My 10 favorite plays and players this week
- Roy Helu, rookie running back of the Washington Redskins, hurdled a defender for a key touchdown on the road.
- Von Miller, the Denver Broncos' sensational rookie pass rusher, used Dwight Freeney's spin move for a sack. I haven't seen anyone not named Freeney use the move quite like that.
- Julian Edelman, Patriots' wide receiver, played defensive back because of injuries in the secondary, but when he came to the line of scrimmage and blitzed to get a big hit on Vince Young he looked like safety Jimmy Leonhard of the Jets.
- Red Bryant, defensive lineman of the Seattle Seahawks, blocked two field goals in a losing effort. Bryant needs Pro Bowl consideration for all the things he does well for that defense.
- The Tennessee Titans ran a reverse on a kick return for a touchdown.
- Tampa Bay running back LeGarrette Blount is close to 255 pounds, but he hurdled a Titans defender Sunday on his way to a 16-yard run.
- Rookie Patrick Peterson of the Cardinals had another punt return for a touchdown against the Rams after burning St. Louis the last time they played.
- Jared Allen, the Vikings' all-pro defensive end, took on long snapping duties and did it well, and also covered the punt and made the tackle.
- Former college basketball player Connor Barwin of the Texans went to the Senior Bowl as a tight end but was drafted by the Texans in 2009 as a backup pass rusher. The replacement for injured Mario Williams had four sacks this week.
- Aaron Maybin, former Buffalo Bills first-round bust, was picked up by the Jets and had two sacks and two tackles for a loss against his old team. Maybin now has five sacks for the year.
Tebow and the future
John Elway took a lot of grief from Tim Tebow fans this week for saying that Tebow has to get better on third down to win a world championship, but Elway was merely stating a fact. The third-down success rate of the quarterbacks who have been in the Super Bowl since 1994 reveals how much Tebow has to improve if he wants to impress his boss.
The worst third-down conversion rate of the 34 quarterbacks in the big game was 33 percent by Steve McNair in 1999, and the best was 55.6 percent by Steve Young in 1994. Elway himself had a 44.6 percent success rate in his two Super Bowl-winning years. Seven quarterbacks came into the game with a conversion rate of 50 percent or more, 16 had a success rate of 40 percent or more, and 11 were over 32.9 percent. Tebow, meanwhile, is under 20 percent on third downs -- but is improving.
Tebow converted 31 percent of his third downs against San Diego, but when you consider that the Broncos only converted three of seven third downs of five yards or less, Elway's candid view of Tebow becomes much more understandable.
Backups have to deliver or you lose
The old adage in NFL offices is "you never have enough running backs." Sooner or later, teams will need backup runners to take the lead spot and get the job done. Buffalo counted on former first-round pick C.J. Spiller to pick up the slack when Fred Jackson got hurt, but Spiller didn't get the job done with a 2.9 yards-per-carry average. Ditto Toby Gerhart of the Vikings, who could only manage 2.6 yards per carry while trying to replace Adrian Peterson.
When it comes to quarterbacks, NFL personnel folks realize the fall-off will be significant. On Sunday, Curtis Painter (Colts), T.J. Yates (Texans), John Skelton (Cardinals), Tyler Palko (Chiefs) and Caleb Hanie (Bears) combined for three touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and 10 sacks. They made it clear that a solid backup with starter experience is worth $3 million a year. Get one!
