Indianapolis Colts running back Joseph Addai was without question one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy football last season.
A first-round pick across the board, Addai missed four games due to injuries and finished with a 750 yards from scrimmage and seven total touchdowns. Those numbers ranked him 39th in fantasy points among running backs on NFL.com, behind second-stringers like Leon Washington, Jerious Norwood and Chester Taylor. Furthermore, Addai's own backup, Dominic Rhodes, scored 24 more fantasy points when all was said and done.
With his fantasy value already falling after such a mediocre season, Addai's stock took an even bigger hit when the Colts took Connecticut running back Donald Brown in the first round of the NFL Draft.
The move seemed to signal what would be an imminent backfield committee under the direction of new coach Jim Caldwell. That sort of scenario would mean an instant decrease in production in the eyes of fantasy leaguers, especially from a runner like Addai who has dealt with injury problems.
But, before you put a fork in Addai's fantasy value, there's a few things to keep in mind that could actually make him an attractive value pick.
Caldwell has already confirmed that Addai will remain atop the depth chart heading into the regular season, so he's in no danger of losing that role to Brown. NFL.com senior writer Steve Wyche also sees Addai as the workhorse back with Brown being used as "more of a role player than a rotational player."
Reports on Addai out of Colts training camp have also been very positive. The Tribune Star also suggests he's "running pretty close to what he did as a rookie," when Addai rushed for 1,081 yards and scored eight total touchdowns. Owners should also keep in mind that he didn't start a single game that season -- Rhodes was still the starter -- but Addai still finished 10th in fantasy points among running backs on NFL.com despite seeing just over 51 percent of the team's carries.
Addai will also have the advantage of having a healthier offensive line in front of him.
Injuries to Pro Bowl center Jeff Saturday and veteran guard Ryan Lilja caused major problems in 2008. Tackle Tony Ugoh, who required offseason knee surgery, also dealt with injury issues. Saturday and Lilja are now back at 100 percent, and Ugoh has been replaced on the left side of the line by Charlie Johnson. However, Ugoh is now seeing time at right tackle while Ryan Diem is sidelined.
"The true test is when we get out on the field, but we've certainly made the necessary changes to help us [in the running game]. But sometimes the indication and the results don't show up right away. So I'm optimistic, and I think we are doing the right things, so we anticipate it is going to improve," Caldwell told the Tribune.
Another factor in Addai's favor is motivation for future financial gain in what could be a make-or-break campaign. If he is unable to avoid injuries and loses more work to Brown, he'll be seen as little more than a brittle, risk-reward back and a gamble for others teams that might look to sign him after the 2010 season. If he can avoid the trainer's room and show the skills that made him a star in 2006-07, Addai, 26, will be in a much better position to land a lucrative long-term contract.
Fantasy leaguers still shouldn't expect Addai to re-establish himself as an elite fantasy runner, especially with Brown in the mix. But that doesn't mean he can't be a nice draft value. Due to his injuries and last season's failures, Addai is almost certain to be undervalued in drafts. His current average draft position (ADP) on NFL.com is 52.23, so he's not coming off the board until the fourth round in leagues with 12-plus teams.
In fact, fellow running backs with question marks -- such as Larry Johnson and Darren McFadden -- are being taken ahead him, while Thomas Jones and Marshawn Lynch (who has been suspended for the first three weeks of the season) are being taken right around the same place in drafts. Only McFadden is younger and has more upside than Addai, who still hasn't reached his prime.
Based on his rookie success in a shared workload with Rhodes, there's no reason to believe that Addai can't rush for between 1,000-1,100 yards and compile five to seven touchdowns this season. And if Wyche's assessment of the situation is correct, those numbers could project on the low side in an offense that has an advantage that most teams only dream of having under center -- a certain quarterback named Peyton Manning.
While his injury history is still a cause for some concern, there's no harm in taking Addai in the fourth or fifth round as a No. 2 fantasy back. At that spot, he could turn into a pretty strong draft value. Of course, it's also a good idea to target Brown in the middle rounds as insurance.
News and notes
- » The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports Rashard Mendenhall has looked "ordinary" in Steelers training camp. A first-round pick in 2008, Mendenhall didn't show much in camp as a rookie and looked average in limited time during the regular season. He is still worth a middle-round pick and remains a viable handcuff for Willie Parker, but Mendenhall needs to make a better impression on the coaching staff to make a real impact.
- » Jets coach Rex Ryan is denying reports that the team is looking to trade Thomas Jones. In fact, Ryan told the New York Daily News that Jones is "huge in our plans" for this season. Regardless, it's hard to envision a scenario where Jones doesn't see a decrease in statistical success compared to his solid 2008 numbers. Ryan wants Leon Washington to see more touches, and rookie Shonn Greene is also in the mix.
- » The Philadelphia Inquirer & Daily News is reporting that Eagles running back Brian Westbrook (ankle, knee) is expected to return to the practice field this weekend. Westbrook is coming back from offseason surgeries on his knee and ankle, so the soon-to-be 30-year old back will be a risk-reward pick in fantasy drafts. Owners who do take a chance on him also need to target rookie LeSean McCoy.
- » According to reports, Browns rookie wide receiver Brian Robiskie hasn't played well as training camp has progressed and is no longer the favorite to start opposite Braylon Edwards. In fact, fellow rookie wideout Mohamed Massaquoi now has a chance at a more prominent role. In an offense that will be based heavily on the run, however, it's hard to see either Robiskie or Massaquoi making a huge fantasy impact.
- » The Denver Post reports that Brandon Marshall's misdemeanor battery case will be heard on Aug. 14 in Atlanta. Marshall, who is missing practice time due to an injured hip, is still in danger of a possible league-imposed suspension if he is found guilty. The veteran is coming off hip surgery, no longer has Jay Cutler, has requested a trade and now faces NFL punishment. All of those could make him a player to avoid in drafts.
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