It is important to re-examine the action from the week before, and the season to date, in order to get a feel for where the pro game is headed.
Quality control coaches spend all their working hours breaking down opponents' game tapes and studying computer reports to find the trends in the game. Every week I try and bring you inside the game, so you feel like you have an edge on Sunday when you sit down to watch the games.
Here are the issues I will dig into this week:
1. What is going on with fourth downs?
The Packers decide to go for it on a fourth-and-1 situation in the second quarter on their own 44-yard line and make it with a 7-yard run by Ryan Grant. The Packers players feel energized by the coaching decision and attribute the aggressive play-calling to their touchdown moments later and the eventual win over the Colts. Coach Mike McCarthy knew the risk was worth it considering the potent Colts offense that was waiting to take the field if the Packers punted instead of going for it.
The Packers' decision caused me to look at the other Week 7 decisions to go for it on fourth down and where the fourth-down decisions in 2008 stood as compared to the last three seasons. You might find this trend somewhat interesting.
During the Week 7 action around the league, NFL coaches took the risk of loss of possession by not kicking or punting on fourth down 24 times and made it 17 times for a success rate of 71 percent. Those are pretty convincing numbers, but how does Week 7 in 2008 stack up against the season and against the past three seasons?
So far in 2008, coaches have elected to go for it on fourth down 176 times and made it 97 times for a 55 percent success rate. A further breakdown shows that fourth-and-1 has been converted 72 percent of the time and fourth-and-1 to 3 yards has succeeded 64 percent of the time. Those are pretty good odds when you compare it to third down and 1 to 3 yard, which is converted to a first down about 58 percent of the time. Coaches who study these things may be starting to look at fourth down a bit differently in 2008.
From 2005 through 2007, the season average for success on fourth downs was 49 percent; this year's 55 percent success rate is better than the three-year average, or any previous season since 2005. I don't know if I would consider those numbers when I was inside my own 40-yard line, like McCarthy did in Green Bay. However, it looks more inviting than ever on the other sixty yards. Did you notice in the Monday Night Football game there was no hesitation from Patriots coach Bill Belichick on his two fourth-and-1 situations, especially out on the 40-yard line when he ran Sammy Morris to the left for more than a 20-yard gain?
2. Defensive penalties ... some up, some down
Make no mistake about it, penalties will be the demise of some teams at the end of the season. NFL coaches use their bye week for a self examination of the entire program and penalties are addressed. Here's a look at five defensive penalties after seven weeks of action.
Personal fouls are up from last year. In 2007, there were 195 personal fouls called, or 11 per week. This year, there have already been 93 personal fouls called, or 13 per week. At the present rate, there will be 26 more called this season, which is a sad fact. Personal fouls are really dumb fouls that can be controlled. The Raiders lead the league with seven personal fouls.
Roughing the passer -- We all know the NFL is trying to protect the quarterback, and it is starting to have an affect on the pass rushers. A year ago, there were 61 roughing the passer calls, or 3.5 per week. After seven weeks, there have been just 22 roughing the passer calls, or 3.1 per week. The present pace indicates there will be eight less calls this season, which sounds insignificant, but at least the frequency isn't going up. Tennessee leads the league with three roughing the passer calls against them so far. The Titans are undefeated and play a very aggressive style of defense, and they also lead in another defensive penalty area.
Defensive offside -- This is an inexcusable penalty. Every defensive coach teaches his players to react to the movement of the ball, but nonetheless defensive offside happens too often. Last year, it was called 319 times, or 19 times a week. This year, it has already been called 156 times, or 22 times a week. What it means is that at this rate games are going to stop 60 more times this season to award the offense an additional five yards. The Titans lead the NFL in this area, too, with 13 calls against them, while the Jets and Patriots have not been flagged once.
Pass interference -- Some people feel pass interference could be called on every pass play, while others believe it is called too often. Last year, it was called 147 times, or just under nine times a week. This season, it has been called 66 times, or just over nine times a week. This penalty looks about on par with last season. Green Bay led the league last year with 12 pass interference calls, and they lead the league again this year with six calls. They are actually slightly ahead of their 2007 pace. The Packers play a lot of man-to-man coverages, which may account for the high frequency. There are five teams so far this year without a pass interference call.
Illegal contact -- This was a point of emphasis a few seasons ago, and the point was driven home that there would be no more mauling of receivers down the field. Last year, it was called just 79 times, or just under five times a week. It is right on schedule this year with 36 calls in seven weeks, or five per weekend. The Packers led the league last year with eight illegal contact calls, and they lead again with four. There are 12 teams that have not been flagged once for illegal contact.
