As we enter the third week of the 2023 NFL season, fantasy managers are beginning to panic over their underperforming players and starting to eye guys on other teams who have outperformed preseason expectations. This is a great time to take advantage of overreactions on both sides of the spectrum. To refresh your memory, through two weeks of the 2022 season, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry were sitting at RB33 and RB37 in fantasy points, respectively, CeeDee Lamb was WR48, and Justin Fields was QB26. All of them finished top-six in their position by the end of the year.
Below are my top guys I am trying to buy low and sell high in fantasy prior to Week 3:
BUY LOW
Fields makes an appearance on this list in back-to-back weeks, as his buying window remains wide open entering Week 3. The start of the season has been brutal for Fields and the Bears, with the offense arguably looking worse than it did last year at this time. It is worth noting that it took Fields a while to get going last season. It wasn’t until he started to utilize his legs more that the dual-threat quarterback became a force in fantasy leagues. The Bears have seemingly abandon the run game so far in 2023, after finishing second in the league in attempts and first in rushing yards last season. If the coaches are smart, they will get back to what works best -- running the ball. Once that happens, Fields will again be a top-tier fantasy QB.
While hasty fantasy managers are quickly jumping off the Mattison bandwagon, you should take advantage and add him to your team. Yes, Mattison's performance on national television against a great Eagles defensive line wasn't pretty, and yes, Minnesota just traded for Cam Akers, but let’s not completely overlook Mattison's finish as the RB16 in Week 1 against the Buccaneers' tough run defense. Akers' arrival doesn't necessarily mean Mattison's fantasy production will take a serious hit. You might be able to get the fifth-year back for even less now. The schedule becomes much easier for Mattison over the next four weeks, with Minnesota facing the Chargers, Panthers, Chiefs and Bears. The good news is that the 25-year-old has seen a ton of snaps (73.7 percent) this season, and his touches and efficiency should increase as the Vikings start to face friendlier run defenses.
The Jets confusingly decided to put all their trust in Zach Wilson and give Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook a combined eight carries Sunday against the Cowboys. It is almost like the coaching staff completely forgot that Hall put up 147 yards on 11 touches in Week 1. With Aaron Rodgers out for the season, the only way the Jets’ offense is going to find success is by feeding Hall and allowing him to create game-changing plays out of thin air. The squeaky wheel gets the grease, and Hall certainly seemed to be squeaky after last week, showing frustration on social media about his low usage. Hall is one of the most talented running backs in the league, and it is rare that a buying window opens for a player of his caliber -- try to trade for him now before his workload inevitably increases.
In his first game back from injury, the team limited Jeudy’s workload, playing him on just over 35 percent of the snaps in Week 2. Don’t stress about his usage. Jeudy’s snap count and target share will increase greatly as the season progresses. Jeudy was Russell Wilson’s favorite target at the end of last season, averaging over 90 receiving yards per game in Weeks 14-18, and he was the WR3 in fantasy during that span. I expect him to be a solid WR2, with WR1 upside moving forward.
SELL HIGH
Nothing would be more glorious than watching Mostert carry a full workload and stay healthy for an entire season, but we all know that might be tall order. Mostert has never had more than 181 carries in a season throughout his career, and in light of the 31-year-old's well-documented injury history, it's fair to question if his body can handle a huge workload. Plus, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Salvon Ahmed could return from injuries in the coming weeks, and rookie De’Von Achane’s workload could increase as he gets further away from a shoulder injury sustained in the preseason. It is hard to sell a running back who is getting volume and looks so good, but I fear his fantasy success won’t last long.
White was able to rush for 73 yards against a terrible Bears defense in Week 2, yet he still only averaged 4.3 yards per carry and a measly 6.0 yards per reception. Let's talk more about his lack of efficiency. Since he entered the league in 2022, White has averaged the second-fewest yards per carry (min. 150 carries) and the second-fewest yards per reception among running backs (min. 50 receptions). Take this opportunity to sell high on him now; you might not get another chance.
In Week 2, Moore recorded 54 of his 70 total receiving yards on one catch-and-run late in the fourth quarter. Prior to that play, he had just two receptions for 16 yards. To make his stat line look even juicer, he was also able to snag a short touchdown earlier in the game. Moore has had the opportunity to run a ton of routes so far this season, with rookie Rashee Rice playing very few snaps through two games. However, Rice has looked very good when on the field, and I expect his usage to increase as the season progresses, while Moore’s production might continue to be inconsistent. Find a league-mate who only looks at box scores and try swap Moore with a player with more upside.
