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Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seahawks: He has two things working against him for me: A career year in the same season as a contract year. How motivated will he be? Will they still run it as much with a new QB in Matt Flynn? Remember, he had more than a few 6-carry, 25-yard games the first six weeks of the season. The possibility of a nose dive is just too great.
Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: It might be a timeshare to start out with, but it will slowly evolve into C.J. Spiller's job. Spiller is younger, and can catch passes out of the backfield. He slowly became a monster of a player in the last six weeks of 2011. Jackson is older and will play less as the season goes on. I don't see him having much value as you get into your playoff stretch.
Darren McFadden, RB, Raiders: If you could guarantee me he'll stay healthy, I'd put him on my list of "breakout performers" for 2012. But you can't, because he's never stayed healthy. Look, he's never had to carry the load all by himself, as he went from sharing the job in college at Arkansas to the NFL, where he's not been durable. Hey, he might be great for you through Halloween, but you just can't count on him for the entire stretch.
Michael Turner, RB, Falcons: Like Lynch, he has two things working against him for me: Being a big running back and turning 30. Eventually running backs break down, and those players don't go slowly, it's all at once. It might not be this year, but it might be. Is that something you're willing to risk your fantasy season on? He's too much of a gamble for me make my No. 1 RB.
Willis McGahee, RB, Broncos: He had his moment in the sun last year. It seemed like every game he was running for 110 yards -- on at least 30 carries. But as older RBs do, when you get that type of workload after not having it for awhile, you get hurt, and that's what happened to McGahee. Throw in Peyton Manning, and you know McGahee isn't going to get close to the number of rushing attempts of a year ago. I don't draft him at all.
Frank Gore, RB, 49ers: The 49ers brought in new WRs to throw the ball more. They drafted a RB in LaMichael James to be their third-down back. San Francisco has drafted four running backs in the last three years now, so they're not just preparing for Frank Gore's exit, they seem to be pushing it along. There's no way he'll be the 125-yard and a TD-per-game monster he was in 2011.
Laurent Robinson, WR, Jaguars: Good for him with that big contract in Jacksonville. Fantasy owners are saying, "Great, he's in Jacksonville." He'll be the complementary WR to Justin Blackmon, who's talented but unproven. I'm wary of him entering a new scheme where he doesn't have elite guys -- at least right off the bat -- to take pressure off him like Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten did last year in Dallas.
Anquan Boldin, WR, Ravens: He was a solid fantasy pick last year, and now he'll slowly decrease in value. The roles of Boldin and Torrey Smith will be reversed in Baltimore next year, as Smith evolved into the No. 1 WR over the course of the season. Boldin will be a 700-yard, five-touchdown player this year at best.
Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers: See Gore, Frank. For the first time, Davis won't be the No. 1 option in the passing game with a bullet. Randy Moss, Mario Manningham and A.J. Jenkins were all brought on board to make the 49ers offense more dynamic. He won't see the targets he's used to. I think he drops to a periphery top 12 fantasy TE this season.
Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets: Believe it or not, Sanchez had the 10th most fantasy points among QBs in 2011. But look at what the Jets have done: Brought in Tim Tebow and renewed their ground-and-pound commitment. They simply won't let Sanchez throw the ball like they did last year when they had no choice. He'll yield to Tebow for three or four series a game at least -- some of which might be in the red zone, where Sanchez ran for six scores. He's gone from top 10 to fantasy irrelevant.
