Which disappointing running back from 2013 is more likely to rebound in 2014 - Doug Martin, Ray Rice or C.J. Spiller?
This is a tough call, but I have to go with C.J. Spiller. Ray Rice's situation is up in the air, and he's still running behind a suspect offensive line. While the running back committee talks swirling around new Buccaneers offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford are a little overblown, Martin is in a crowded backfield with Bobby Rainey and Mike James -- both of whom could vulture a number of valuable touches. Spiller had a down season because he was nagged by injuries that diminished his explosiveness and ability to cut on a dime. Spiller will be fully healthy heading into 2014, and we know he can produce a stellar fantasy season with Fred Jackson (who isn't getting any younger) in the mix. I expect all of these rushers to put together nice seasons, but Spiller's will be the most complete rebound.
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- Marcas Grant NFL.com Fantasy Editor
Spiller's still worth a look
I'm back on board with C.J. Spiller this season. A lot of his issues last season centered on his health ... or lack of it. With a full offseason to rest up, he should look more like the running back who took fantasy by storm in 2012. Yes, he'll have to share carries with Fred Jackson, but Rice and Martin are likely to find themselves in timeshares as well. When everything is working well in Buffalo, the Spiller-Jackson pairing is arguably the second-best fantasy duo behind Reggie Bush and Joique Bell in Detroit. I'll take my chances this season.
Drafting C.J. Spiller to me is akin to taking a shot of fireball. Sure it seems like a good idea at the time, but eventually you're left with a ton of regret. And a huge bar tab. And even the thought of something innocuous like cinnamon gum turns your stomach. Similarly, I have to imagine people who used a first-round pick on Spiller last year (like the poor dude who took him second overall at Fantasy Draft Week) can't even drive by a Buffalo Wild Wings without getting a case of the dry heaves. (Which is too bad, because B-Dubs is awesome.)
With all that said, I'm going with Spiller. He was great in 2012. Not so much in 2013. But he had just seven fewer attempts in 2013 (his running average was down from 6.0 to 4.6 yards-per-attempt). A big reason for the dip in production, in addition to the injuries, was the lack of offense around him. Which should hopefully change with stability at quarterback and, you know, a little luck injury-wise. So if I'm to take a chance on one of these guys, Spiller's my dude. I just hope it doesn't lead to a hangover.
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- Jason Smith NFL.com Fantasy Analyst
Martin will muscle up again
Never again, C.J. Spiller. Never again will I draft you after last season. Now that I've gotten that out of the way, the answer is Doug Martin. Every Buccaneers running back besides Martin was successful last year (Mike James, Bobby Rainey, Chris Rainey, Claude Raines, Ron Raines, Ron Roenicke ...) but he's too good to not bounce back to his rookie level. You'll have to draft him no later than the middle of the second round, as he'll be hyped and talked up for the remainder of the offseason and preseason.
It's not that I don't like Ray Rice, it's that he has a lot of tread on his tires and it's not like the Ravens offense scares anyone. He'll also continue to lose goal-line carries to Bernard Pierce in an effort to keep him fresh. His best days are behind him.
Now to Mr. Spiller. It's not that I don't like him, it's just that his role is never going to change in Buffalo. He's always going to be replaced in the red zone and you can't count on him for over 15 carries per week. He's almost like Chris Johnson, where you have to hope he breaks a long one to give you enough fantasy points to warrant starting him.
