The debate over LaDainian Tomlinson's value and draft position has become one of (if not the) biggest topic in fantasy football.
In the past, having the No. 1 overall selection meant taking Tomlinson. No questions asked. But that all changed last season when an injured toe, a mediocre offensive line and the emergence of Philip Rivers caused his numbers to slide.
Now 30, Tomlinson is motivated to prove that he won't be the next great running back to see his numbers tumble into a statistical doldrum during the latter stages of his pro football career.
Chargers coach Norv Turner, who earlier predicted that Tomlinson would see around 325 carries this season, is equally confident in the veteran runner. In fact, he thinks Tomlinson will re-emerge as one of the NFL's elite rushers, despite last season's mediocre numbers.
"I would expect L.T. to be among the top three or four rushers in the league," Turner told the San Diego Union-Tribune. "And depending how our season goes and the games go, he'll be a factor in the rushing title."
The Chargers also have Darren Sproles in the backfield mix, but anyone who thinks this is an imminent committee should think again. Turner sees Sproles as a "complement" to Tomlinson, not as a back who'll steal a significant percentage of his carries.
Whether you think Tomlinson will re-emerge into an elite fantasy back or be no better than he was last season, well, you can make strong points for either scenario playing out in the end. My advice to fantasy leaguers in the first round as it applies to Tomlinson is simple.
I wouldn't touch him with one of the first five overall picks due to a combination of excessive career carries, a daunting 2009 schedule and the long list of premier backs to flounder at age 30. In my opinion, the statistical downside with Tomlinson is just too big based on his past success.
Would you be satisfied with what Tomlinson produced in 2008 if it cost you a top-five pick in your draft?
Probably not.
If Tomlinson falls to the No. 10-12 overall picks or even into the start of the second round, however, I'd take a chance on him with the hope that he could equal last season's numbers. At that point in the draft, the downside is somewhat decreased (albeit still present).
The L.T. debate aside, has anyone else noticed the glaring concern laying in the first-round weeds heading into this season?
Due to the seemingly perfect symmetry of the numerous aging superstar backs that have shown signs of deterioration, a league-wide increase in backfield committees and a huge influx of younger runners to enter the league, there aren't many stone-cold locks at the position anymore.
Can you name a first-round running back outside of Adrian Peterson that won't come with at least some level of risk?
Sure, Matt Forte's stock rose the second Jay Cutler was traded to Chicago, but one could argue that a sophomore slump is still possible. Maurice Jones-Drew has moved up rank lists now that Fred Taylor is in New England, but can his small frame handle the punishment of a being featured back at the NFL level? What about Michael Turner? Can he avoid the infamous "Curse of 370?"
Those aren't the lone backs with question marks, either.
No one I've talked to thinks DeAngelo Williams can duplicate his impressive 2008 totals. Neither do I. Like Forte, Chris Johnson and Steve Slaton are also sophomore slump candidates, and the former loses goal-line work to LenDale White in Tennessee.
Tomlinson, Frank Gore, Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook and Brandon Jacobs have all had problems with injuries and/or excessive carries and are no lock to start all 16 games.
What does all this mean to fantasy leaguers?
Well, it shouldn't start a trend of avoiding running backs in Round 1. But in most cases, whether you're taking Tomlinson or another back, there's even less of a guarantee that you'll get equal production for your draft position.
News and notes
- » Eagles coach Andy Reid expects Brian Westbrook (ankle surgery) to be ready to practice with his teammates by mid-August. In the meantime, he'll continue to do rehab work with head athletic trainer Rick Burkholder. Westbrook, who'll be 30 at the start of the season, will be one of the more notable risk-reward fantasy players in drafts. However, he'll still be hard to pass on in the second round.
- » Three days after signing with the Ravens, Drew Bennett has decided to retire due to a problematic knee. The veteran missed most of last season after breaking his foot in Week 1 with the Rams. Unless Derrick Mason decides to return from his retirement, the team will no doubt continue to look for help at wide receiver. As it stands, Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams both have draft value.
- » The San Francisco Chronicle reports the 49ers will use more zone-blocking schemes this season, especially between the tackles, in an effort to benefit Frank Gore. A hard inside runner, Gore looks to be the featured back for new OC Jimmy Raye and his run-based attack. His proneness to injuries is a cause for at least some concern, but the veteran will be worth a first-round selection in most fantasy formats.
- » Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt told NFL.com's Adam Rank that he'll run a more balanced offense in 2009. The team finished second in pass attempts last season under former OC Todd Haley, but Whisenhunt wants to run the ball more with the duo of Tim Hightower and Chris Wells. The news shouldn't make fantasy leaguers run from Kurt Warner, but it should indicate a slight decrease is statistical success is possible.
- » According to the New York Post, Chansi Stuckey will open training camp as the favorite to start opposite Jerricho Cotchery. Brad Smith will be used as the third receiver, though David Clowney will also be in the mix. Stuckey put up some decent numbers early in 2008, but that was with Brett Favre under center. Whether it's Mark Sanchez or Kellen Clemens, the Jets' quarterback situation limits Stuckey's stock.
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