Do you think Calvin Johnson will become an elite fantasy wide receiver in his second NFL season, much like Larry Fitzgerald did opposite Anquan Boldin in Arizona? Also, do wideouts typically break out in their second or third seasons? -- J. Bosdell, Richmond, Va.
Michael Fabiano: I'm not sure if he'll become an elite wideout this season, but Johnson is almost guaranteed to surpass his rookie totals and make a greater fantasy impact. Remember, the Lions won't utilize such a pass-laden offense under new OC Jim Colletto, and Roy Williams is healthy and in a contract year.
That could limit Johnson's statistical ceiling.
The third-year wideout trend isn't a be all, end all formula to success (a large percentage of these players don't break out), but the likes of Harold Carmichael, Steve Largent, Rod Smith, Steve Smith and Santana Moss (to name a few) have had their first big year after two NFL seasons. Of course, there are those third-year wideouts like Reggie Brown and Mark Clayton who faltered rather than thrived, so again, there are no guarantees with this fantasy football trend.
With more second-year wideouts like Greg Jennings and Brandon Marshall having solid seasons, we've covered both second- and third-year receivers in our draft kit. Based on the success of Jennings, Marshall and others, Dwayne Bowe, Ted Ginn and Sidney Rice (three of the top second-year wideouts) should be seen as a bit more attractive in drafts.
I drafted Joseph Addai and Clinton Portis, but I really wanted to land Marion Barber. Would it be foolish to offer Portis for Barber? I also have Ronnie Brown and Selvin Young at the running back position. -- A. Sekora, Newport, Ore.
M.F.: I am also a fan of Barber. After all, LaDainian Tomlinson is the lone back with more touchdowns over the past two seasons. But it's hard to look past Portis, who has been a tremendous fantasy runner throughout his career. The Redskins will also continue to use him as the centerpiece of their offense under new head coach Jim Zorn. Remember, Zorn's mentor in Seattle, Mike Holmgren, ran Shaun Alexander an average of 331 times from 2001-2005. That might not be the greatest news for Portis in the long term, but it is a definite advantage for 2008. It's a close call, but I'd hold onto Portis rather than deal him for Barber.
Now that Kevin Jones is in Chicago, which Bears running back will have the most value? Is it Jones or Matt Forte? -- M. Pfeiffer, Austria
M.F.: The addition of Jones does hurt Forte's value on the surface, but there's no guarantee that Jones will even be active in Week 1. The Chicago Sun-Times reports Jones could begin the season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list as he continues to recover from ACL surgery. The veteran is less than seven months removed from the procedure, so his presence on the team's roster might not even diminish Forte's role. The rookie is more of a No. 3 fantasy back or flex starter, but he's definitely the runner from Chicago to target.
What are your thoughts on the quarterback-wide receiver combo idea? I have Drew Brees in our 12-team keeper league and have Larry Fitzgerald, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Reggie Wayne. Would it make sense to deal one of these wideouts for Marques Colston? -- S. Appleman, Tucson, Ariz.
M.F.: The quarterback-wide receiver combo can be a great asset for your fantasy team with stars like Tom Brady and Randy Moss, Peyton Manning and Wayne, Tony Romo and Terrell Owens, etc., but I still wouldn't deal one of your wideouts for Colston. Fitzgerald, Houshmandzadeh and Wayne are all elite options (I have all three ranked higher than Colston), so there's no need to make a deal.
What sort of value will Jeremy Shockey have in New Orleans? What about Kevin Boss in New York? -- S. Patrick, Jacksonville, Fla.
M.F.: I think the move to New Orleans helps the value of Shockey, who now finds himself in what could be one of the league's most explosive offenses. He could be a nice middle- to late-round value as a lower-end No. 1 fantasy tight end. Boss will also see an increase in value, but he won't make a Shockey-like impact. In fact, his lack of blocking skills could force the Giants to use Darcy Johnson or Michael Matthews at times. That could limit Boss's time on the field. Overall, I see Boss as a late-round No. 2 fantasy tight end.
Hello Michael, I need to keep one running back from Ronnie Brown, Larry Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Selvin Young. I'm leaning toward L.J. and MJD, but I'm not sure who to retain. Also, I think I'll be able to land either Marion Barber or Clinton Portis in the first round of the re-draft. Who should I keep? -- R. Jones, Suffolk, Va.
M.F.: Despite last season's failures, I would still retain Johnson. He's back to 100 percent from an injured foot, and he'll face one of the easier run schedules in the league. In fact, L.J. faces starts against Atlanta, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Denver, Miami, N.Y. Jets and Oakland. All of these teams had dreadful run defenses in 2007. Johnson's value will also increase a bit with the addition of rookie OG Branden Albert, who should help improve the offensive line's effectiveness. You can also "protect" your keeper spot if you add either Barber or Portis, both of whom would probably be retained ahead of Johnson for 2009.
I'm in a 12-team, three-player keeper league that rewards four points for passing touchdowns, one point for every 20 passing yards and one point for every three receptions. I also lose the round of the players I retain. My choices are Willis McGahee (Round 1), Carson Palmer (Round 2), Reggie Wayne (Round 2), Marshawn Lynch (Round 4), Laurence Maroney (Round 6), Michael Turner (Round 14) and Selvin Young (Round 15). Suggestions? -- E. Cuellar, Mexico
M.F.: I'd pass on Palmer due to the scoring system and retain McGahee, Lynch and Wayne. This ensures a solid starting backfield and one of the league's top wideouts. Maroney, Turner and Young could turn out to be very nice bargains based on the rounds you would lose, but most of the top backs and wideouts will be kept (36 players retained total), so McGahee, Lynch and Wayne are the best options.
Which wide receiver will have more fantasy points this season: T.J. Houshmandzadeh or Chad Johnson? -- Harv, Woodbridge, Ill.
M.F.: This duo will have very similar value, but there are three reasons to take Houshmandzadeh ahead of Johnson. First, Ocho Cinco is coming off ankle surgery and could have a slow start to the season. Second, Johnson has been one of the most inconsistent wideouts in fantasy football over the past two seasons. And third, Houshmandzadeh is entering a contract year and will be motivated to produce huge numbers.
What kind of production do you predict from David Garrard this season? Where should he be targeted in drafts? -- P. Zasowski, Seymour, Tenn.
M.F.: If he can avoid injuries (which has been a problem in the past), Garrard should be considered a viable breakout candidate. He doesn't make mistakes with the football and has proven to be a real leader for Jacksonville, which will compete for a conference championship. Garrard can also put up nice numbers: Based on the stats from his 12 starts in 2007, Garrard would have finished with over 3,500 passing yards and around 25 total touchdowns. I see him as a nice middle-round selection as a low-end No. 1 fantasy quarterback. He's a nice option for owners who want to focus on running backs, wide receivers and a tight end in the first five rounds.
How is Minnesota's defense ranked so highly? Sure, it finished first against the run last season, but the Vikings were downright awful against the pass. Would it be safer to take the San Diego defense? Thanks! -- B. Keane, Spokane, Wash.
M.F.: The Vikings were actually dead last in the league against the pass last season, but that didn't keep them from being a top-10 fantasy defense on NFL.com. This unit did rank first against the run, however, holding opponents to an average of just over 74 yards per game. That evened out the number of passing yards it allowed. They also scored a combined nine touchdowns on defense and special teams, and finished eighth in the NFL with 38 sacks. That number is certain to rise after the addition of Jared Allen, who had 15 and a half sacks of his own last season with the Kansas City Chiefs. San Diego is a solid unit as well, but Minnesota is the cream of the defensive crop in 2008.
