What's the latest on Cincinnati's backfield situation? I still need to make a decision on Edgerrin James or Rudi Johnson in our 12-team keeper league. Thanks! -- L. Calabrese, New York, N.Y.
Michael Fabiano: Johnson, 28, has recovered from the injured hamstring that hindered him for much of last season and is determined to re-establish himself as a solid running back. In fact, reports indicate he plans to put on weight in the offseason and become more of a power back in 2008. With the status of Kenny Irons in doubt (he could start next season on the PUP list) and Chris Perry still not at 100 percent, Johnson has to be considered the in-house favorite to start in Cincinnati's backfield.
Johnson is no lock to become a true featured back, however, as he could lose at least some of the carries to the more versatile Kenny Watson. What's more, there have been rumors that the team could decide to take a runner in the NFL Draft. That scenario could make Johnson less attractive in seasonal and keeper formats, but I'd still retain him over James. The Arizona back turns 30 this summer and has a difficult run schedule ahead of him, so James could be headed for a serious decrease in statistical success in 2008.
I have Justin Fargas as a No. 3 running back in our 12-team keeper league and the fourth overall selection in our re-draft. Do you think Oakland will take Darren McFadden, a move that would decimate Fargas' value? -- D. Gaston, Cedar Rapids, Iowa
M.F.:Raiders head coach Lane Kiffin seems to be content with his current backfield, which contains Fargas, Dominic Rhodes, Michael Bush and LaMont Jordan, though the latter could be released. However, reports indicate owner Al Davis is enamored with McFadden and will take him with the No. 4 overall selection in the draft. While the team needs help on defense (Ohio State's Vernon Gholston makes more sense) more than another back, when Davis is focused on one player it could be hard to make him re-consider. If McFadden does wear silver and black next season, the seasonal and keeper value of Fargas and Bush will fall fast and furious on all fantasy football rank lists.
I'm in a deep IDP keeper league and planned to retain Stephen Cooper for one more season, but now he's been suspended for the first four games of next season. Who is the favorite to replace him and will that player have any draft value? Also, should I keep Joshua Cribbs or Ted Ginn as the returner position? -- B. Joseph, Bay Area, Calif.
M.F.: San Diego did prepare itself for a Cooper suspension with the addition of Derek M. Smith, who should compete with Brandon Siler for a prominent role. Smith averaged 73 total tackles in the past two seasons, while Siler recorded 25 total tackles in his rookie season of 2007. Smith could have the upper hand in terms of fantasy value while Cooper is out, but neither warrants tremendous consideration. Ginn did finish third in return yardage last season, but he wasn't as productive as Cribbs. The Cleveland wide receiver led the NFL in return yardage with 1,809, which was 307 yards more than the second-closest returner (Maurice Hicks), so retain Cribbs and release Ginn back into the free-agent pool.
I've heard that Denver plans to add Darrell Jackson this week. With Keary Colbert, Samie Parker and Brandon Stokley also on the roster, which wide receiver would be the favorite to start in 2008? What does these additions do for the value of Jay Cutler? -- D. Rian, Colorado Springs, Colo.
M.F.: Jackson has signed a one-year deal with the Broncos and should be allowed a chance to compete with Colbert to start opposite Marshall. However, neither of these wideouts will be worth more than a late-round flier in most formats. With Marshall, Colbert, Jackson, Stokley, Parker and Glenn Martinez on the roster, Cutler now has some added options in a pass attack that lacked teeth last season. Outside of Marshall, I think Tony Scheffler will actually have far more value than all of Denver's wide receivers.
Hi Mike, I read last week that you think Pierre Thomas could make an impact next season. Does this mean Deuce McAllister's time in New Orleans is done? Is Thomas draftable in a 12-team league? -- R. Dickinson, Canada
M.F.: Thomas was in that column last week based on the fact that both McAllister and Reggie Bush will return from knee injuries, so he could see added time on the field if either has a setback. Reports indicate McAllister and the Saints have worked out an agreement that will keep the veteran on the roster headed into training camp. Furthermore, a spokesperson told the New Orleans Times-Picayune that McAllister is confident he'll be at full speed this summer. Whatever the scenario, Bush will be the first Saints back taken in drafts. McAllister will come off the board in the middle rounds or later while Thomas could have some late-round value in larger formats, but not in most 12-team leagues.
I'm in a 10-team keeper league and need to retain Ryan Grant or Larry Johnson. I am more than a little confused, so I'll let you make the decision. Who should I keep? -- R. Gregory, Mesa, Ariz.
M.F.: Grant has experienced a serious increase in keeper value after a breakout 2007 season, but I would still side with Johnson. The veteran was a disappointment last season, but he's back to 100 percent from an injured foot and should be fresh for the start of 2008. He'll need to be fresh with a weakened offensive line in front of him, not to mention a quarterback position that's far from stable with Brodie Croyle the current favorite to start. Still, Johnson will be the offensive centerpiece and should produce well for owners. He was on pace to finish last season with 60 receptions, close to 1,500 all-purpose yards and eight total touchdowns before he was injured, and that was after a 2006 season where he carried the football an NFL record 416 times. It's a close call to be certain, but I'd still have to stick with the more established Johnson in this keeper scenario.
I have Antonio Gates signed for one more year in our 12-team, five-player keeper league. I have been offered Chris Cooley and a third-round selection for Gates and fifth rounder. Once a player switches teams in our league, he is automatically signed to a new three-year contract. Should I make this trade? -- J. Levy, Johnson City, Tenn.
M.F.: Gates, who had a surgical procedure on his foot in the offseason, could be a limited participant in training camp but should be fine for the start of next season. Still, the fact that you'll lose him after the 2008 season makes this trade an attractive one. Cooley isn't on the same level as Gates in fantasy football circles, but he's still no slouch. He recorded 66 receptions with career bests in yards (786) and touchdowns (8) last season, and the deal ensures you'll be set at the tight end position for the next three seasons. You'll also receive a third-round selection in exchange for a fifth rounder, which means you'll end up with four of the first 25-36 players in the re-draft.
Dwayne Bowe and Anthony Gonzalez both made nice impacts in their rookie seasons. Are there any receivers in the 2008 class with a chance to be valuable in 2008 fantasy drafts? -- M. Henson, Oklahoma City, Okla.
M.F.: Outside of the running back position, most rookies don't make a significant impact on the world of fantasy football. Even Calvin Johnson, who was touted as the most complete wideout to come out college in decades, totaled a mediocre 48 receptions for 756 yards and four touchdowns in his first NFL season. Of course, where a player lands (and if there is a chance for an immediate prominent role) is also a tremendous factor that needs to be factored into the equation. Based on talent and potential alone, however, Michigan State's Devin Thomas, California's DeSean Jackson, Texas' Limas Sweed, Indiana's James Hardy and Michigan's Mario Manningham are the top names to watch in the draft.
I have a difficult decision in our 12-team, PPR keeper league. I plan to retain Ben Roethlisberger, Marshawn Lynch and Steve Smith, but I'm not sure which two of these five players I should also keep: Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, Roddy White, Roy Williams and Todd Heap. Help! -- C. D'Onofrio, Tampa, Fla.
M.F.: Because this league rewards points for receptions, I would retain Bush and Williams. Bush has averaged more than 80 receptions in his first two NFL seasons, and he totaled 73 last season despite missing four games due to knee problems. Williams has been prone to injuries, but he'll be at 100 percent for the start of training camp and will be motivated to produce monster numbers in the final year of his contract. Both players also enter next season under the age of 27, so there's still room for statistical improvement. With Roethlisberger, Bush, Lynch, Smith and Williams on the roster, I would focus on a third runner, a third wideout and a No. 1 tight end in the first three round of the re-draft.
I'm a die-hard fan of the Dallas Cowboys, and Marion Barber is one of my prized possessions in our 12-team keeper league. Most of the so-called experts have predicted the Cowboys will take a running back in the upcoming NFL Draft. If the 'Boys do take a back in the first round, how will that affect the value of Barber? -- H. Tesserman, San Antonio, Texas
M.F.: I'm also a die-hard Dallas fan and one of the "so-called experts" who believe the Cowboys will take a running back on the first day of the draft. What's more, our Pat Kirwan and Mike Mayock have both projected that the 'Boys will take Arkansas' Felix Jones in the first round of their most recent mock drafts. MB3 produced monster yardage and touchdown totals behind Julius Jones over the past two seasons, so I don't think the selection of a rookie runner hurts his value (unless Jerry Jones makes a run for Darren McFadden). In fact, I see MB3 as a surefire second-round selection across the board with a chance to produce the first 1,000-yard season of his pro football career.
