Fantasy sleepers, Week 16: Keenan Allen to feast on decimated Lions defense?

When Dak Prescott went down for the season, I believed CeeDee Lamb’s value wouldn’t fully evaporate. Rush had proven to be competent enough to support Dallas’ top receiver. Upon further inspection, the Cowboys quarterback has thrown eight touchdown passes with just one interception over his past four games. It hadn’t been enough to give Rush serious lineup consideration -- until last week when Rush posted a season-high 19 fantasy points against the Panthers. 

He has a chance to replicate that outing this week against the Buccaneers. Tampa’s defense has been a consistent target for fantasy managers looking to stream quarterbacks. No team has allowed more fantasy points per game to signal-callers this season. It’s a number that might have been worse were it not for a string of games against some atrocious passing offenses in the past month. Dallas’ aerial attack is somewhat less than atrocious. Rush might have a lower ceiling on his passing yards, but if he can continue his trend of throwing TD passes and avoiding INTs, he has low-end QB1 vibes. 

Things were so bad for the Jets at one point last week that Jones was putting guys in a blender. It’s hard to come back from getting hit with the spin by Michael McCorkle Jones. The Jags might have lost the game, but for fantasy managers, the effort shouldn’t have gone unnoticed. Jones has been a top 10 fantasy quarterback for two of the past three weeks, throwing for a pair of touchdowns in Weeks 13 and 15. 

The Raiders' pass defense had good numbers last week. But that was more a function of Atlanta’s passing offense floundering under the now-benched Kirk Cousins. Before that, the Silver and Black had allowed at least 260 passing yards in four straight games. This comes just as Jones seems to have found a rapport with Brian Thomas Jr. and backup tight end Brenton Strange. With Jacksonville’s run game not offering much, it could be up to Jones to help lead the way. That could make him a solid two-QB or DFS play. 

If you play fantasy football long enough, you learn that we just weren’t meant to have nice things. It felt like we’d found something with Sincere McCormick. After cycling through Zamir White and Alexander Mattison, we’d found a Raiders back giving us real production. But the fantasy gods are oligarchs. McCormick never stood a chance. 

Alas, all is not lost. On Monday, Abdullah flashed the receiving chops that once had people believing he’d be a fantasy star. It also helped last week that Desmond Ridder couldn’t find a wide receiver in the first three quarters. This week could bring more of a matchup-based solution, as Jacksonville has surrendered the second-most receiving yards to running backs. Abdullah is a flex option for managers who may have lost David Montgomery or anyone in deep leagues needing RB help. 

Stevenson’s season has been unremarkable in just about every aspect. From his middling 740 rushing yards to his lackluster 9 percent target share and underwhelming 155 receiving yards, Stevenson has been just meh. But, occasionally, he puts forth a performance that reminds you why you drafted him. Most of those games include Stevenson finding the end zone. That’s been an infrequent occurrence in an offense with just 24 total touchdowns this season.  

But there’s reason for hope in Week 16. The Pats meet the Bills for the first of two meetings over the final three weeks of the season. Buffalo’s Achilles’ heel has been defending running backs. Only Carolina is allowing more fantasy points per game to the position -- even after a week when Detroit’s running backs were mostly held in check. Buffalo has allowed the most receiving yards and second-most receiving touchdowns to RBs. Even with his paltry use in New England’s passing game, there’s an opportunity for Stevenson to post one of his elusive 20-point outings this week. 

This season has not featured the backfield split we expected between Spears and Tony Pollard. Some of it is because Spears missed four games to injury. A lot of it has been Pollard’s productivity. In Week 15, we got a glimpse of what Spears can do with a solid workload and a good matchup. After Pollard injured his ankle, Spears played 55 percent of the snaps and racked up 92 scrimmage yards, two touchdowns and 27.2 points.  

With Pollard dealing with an ankle injury, the door looks open for Spears to see more opportunities in Week 16. Just in time, too, since the Colts and their lax run defense are next on the schedule. Ignore Denver’s poor rushing output last week –- even though Broncos who can’t run are an evolutionary liability -- Indy hasn’t offered much resistance on the ground. With Will Levis struggling enough to get benched and Mason Rudolph being Mason Rudolph, look for Tennessee to lean on the run game. That could mean another healthy dose of Spears.  

What we’ve learned from the Steelers this year is that none of their quarterbacks can reasonably sustain multiple wide receivers. It’s been hard to consider starting any other Pittsburgh wideout besides George Pickens. Last week without Pickens, however, Austin moved the needle a tad. His five catches for 65 yards led an otherwise lifeless passing offense. 

This week, against Baltimore, it feels like bad news for Austin if Pickens returns and continues to dominate the targets. But the Ravens secondary continues to be feasted upon by slot receivers. Pickens drawing safety attention on the outside could be profitable for Austin working primarily from the slot. Austin is best considered a play in daily fantasy this week. 

It feels like the Bears offense is regressing. Caleb Williams looks harried and frustrated. On top of that, he’s taking a physical beating. The team can’t generate any offense in the first half of games, and it's only scored more than 20 points once during this eight-game losing streak. But Allen though ...

The veteran has come to life for fantasy managers in the latter part of the season by taking advantage of positive matchups. He’s scored four times over the past month, with more than 20 PPR points in three of his last four games. One of those games was a five-catch, 73-yard, two-touchdown outing against the Lions in Week 13. This week, the Bears face a Lions defense that’s even more decimated by injury. Don’t be surprised if Allen posts another solid fantasy number. 

If I gave you 10 guesses, could you name the TE2 from Week 15? OK, you probably guessed Brenton Strange because he was the header to this entry. But in a blind taste test, how many people would have come up with it? How many people could even tell you who Brenton Strange is? People of a certain generation might confuse him with the man who sang "The Oogum Boogum Song."  

You might be asking, " 'Gimme Little Sign' why starting Strange isn’t point chasing?" I can’t completely ignore the idea that it is. His 12 targets in Week 15 equaled the number of targets he had in his previous seven games combined. But with Evan Engram done for the year and the tight end-friendly Raiders defense on tap, Strange has Week 16 upside. Also, this may or may not have been an elaborate ruse to work in some Brenton Wood references. Who’s to say? 

Once again, I am just a man standing before you, asking you to consider Gesicki in a streaming role for your fantasy offense. I know it’s a tough ask. Gesicki has gone four straight games with five or fewer targets. He’s gone five straight with fewer than 55 receiving yards. He has just two touchdowns all season -- and they came in the same game! That’s before we talk about Ja’Marr Chase sucking up all the targets and Tee Higgins grabbing most of whatever is left. 

Why Gesicki? First, there aren’t a lot of great tight end options available. Besides the absolute heater Jonnu Smith has been on lately, it’s hard finding quality production at the position. Second, the Browns have been one of the better matchups for fantasy tight ends. They’ve allowed the most fantasy points per game to the position while surrendering touchdowns in consecutive weeks. Gesicki isn’t likely to see a ton of targets, but anything that increases his chance to end a touchdown drought bumps him up the weekly rankings.

The Bengals defense is ungood. It has been ungood all year. It has been ungood against the run and ungooder against the pass. But a weird thing often happens with defenses that are bad in real life. They can have good fantasy days. Most scoring systems don’t penalize for giving up a lot of yards. Even giving up a ton of points isn’t always a death knell. The Broncos defense scored two fantasy points last year in the infamous 70-point flameout against Miami. 

Which brings us back to Cincinnati. Last week, the Bengals finished the week as a top five fantasy defense thanks to six takeaways, a sack and a touchdown. That was despite giving up 374 yards and 27 points to the Titans. This week, Cincy hosts the Browns and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who'll start his first game of the season in place of a benched Jameis Winston. DTR has thrown three INTs on 34 pass attempts in his four appearances in 2024, and Cleveland has also allowed a whopping 58 sacks, tied for most in the NFL. Points be damned, the Bengals are a good streaming start.