Editor's note: NFL.com analysts and former NFL scouts Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks of the Move The Sticks Podcast share some of their scouting notes, including:
*» Two rookie RBs that will surprise people in 2018
» Why the 2018 CFB season will kick off the Year of the Defensive Lineman *
*But first, we kick off this week's notebook with Jeremiah's take on which 2018 first-round picks will provide the most value to their teams as rookies. *
We've spent a lot of time talking about the quarterbacks in the class of 2018, and all eyes are on them with rookie minicamps getting underway this past weekend. I'm bullish on that group long term. However, when it comes to the rookies that will make the biggest impact on their teams in Year One, I've identified five non-quarterbacks that fit the bill.
Even though these players were picked early in the draft, they're still going to provide tremendous bang for their teams' buck in 2018.
Giants RB Saquon Barkley
Drafted: No. 2 overall
Analysis: What kind of impact will Barkley make for the Giants? Think Alvin Kamara with the Saints; plus, a little more. I think you'll see Barkley provide a similar spark to the Giants as a runner and receiver. Now, there's certainly a case to be made that GM Dave Gettleman should have picked a quarterback at No. 2 when you think about the long-term value that a QB could bring to the franchise, but in terms of immediate impact, Barkley is going to give the Giants much more than a QB would with Eli Manning entrenched as the starter. I don't know if the Giants will go from worst to first in a division where they're trying to catch the defending Super Bowl champions, but they're at least going to go from worst to very competitive in the NFC East.
Browns CB Denzel Ward
Drafted: No. 4 overall
Analysis: I know some people were shocked by the Browns' selection of Ward at No. 4. To me, it was surprising Ward went that early only because Bradley Chubb was still on the board. However, the Ward pick was still a great value. I had him ranked as the No. 4 player in the draft, and he went with the fourth pick. Cornerback was a glaring need for the Browns, and when you're in a division with Steelers WR Antonio Brown and Bengals WR A.J. Green, CB is not a position where you can afford to be weak. Ward has a chance to compete against those guys. He was the best cornerback in the draft. I gave him the exact same grade I gave to Marshon Lattimore leading up to the 2017 draft. We saw what Lattimore did for the Saints as the Defensive Rookie of the Year -- I still don't understand why he lasted until the No. 11 overall pick. Ward was valued correctly this year.
Colts OG Quenton Nelson
Drafted: No. 6 overall
Analysis: I thought Nelson was the third-best player in the draft, and the Colts got him at No. 6. He also happened to match up with their most glaring area of need -- the offensive line. It was a perfect marriage and a tremendous value. I know some people are already talking about Nelson as a future Hall of Famer. I'm not going to do that, but I know he's a rare find at the position who'll help keep Andrew Luck upright. Nelson will be a boon for the running and passing games.
Bears LB Roquan Smith
Drafted: No. 8 overall
Analysis: The Bears' defense was in need of a leader. Smith will be that guy for Chicago. He deserves a lot of credit for Georgia's success last season, and he has a chance to provide a similar lift for the Bears. He's obviously a tremendous talent, but his leadership ability is what lands him on this list. GM Ryan Pace picked the face of the Bears' offense last year in Mitchell Trubisky, and now they have the face of their defense in Smith. The draft capped off a great offseason for Chicago. This is a team on the rise.
Chargers S Derwin James
Drafted: No. 17 overall
Analysis: The James selection by the Chargers was the best marriage of value and scheme fit in the draft. I could not find a better fit for him than defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and the Chargers. He was made to play in that defense and he was a top-10 player that inexplicably fell into their lap. If I had to make an early prediction for Defensive Rookie of the Year, I'd choose James. He could end up being the biggest steal of the first round. It's difficult to go from bad to good. It's even harder to go from good to great, but I think James could help the Chargers make that transition defensively. -- Daniel Jeremiah
TWO ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS THAT WILL SURPRISE IN 2018
The success of Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt as rookies last season has observers scouring the 2018 NFL Draft results in an attempt to identify the next big surprise at the running back position. When I look at the pairings between teams and RBs in the 2018 draft, I believe Royce Freeman and Kallen Ballage could be the hidden gems in this year's class. Now, I know we are all excited about the potential of the first-round RBs (Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, and Sony Michel) but Freeman and Ballage are positioned to be Offensive Rookie of the Year candidates in their respective situations.
Freeman should be considered a dark-horse candidate to claim the 2018 NFL rushing crown for the Denver Broncos. Freeman, the 71st overall pick of the 2018 draft, is a big, physical back with a gritty running style between the tackles. He punishes defenders in the hole, yet flashes enough wiggle and burst to create explosive plays in the open field. Despite posting middling statistics as a pass catcher at Oregon, Freeman's sticky hands and underrated route-running skills could make him a viable option in the passing game. As a true three-down back with the size, speed, and athleticism to deliver big plays as a runner or receiver, Freeman could quickly emerge as the Broncos' No. 1 offensive weapon as a rookie.
Ballage might be an afterthought for some since he was picked late in the fourth round (No. 131 overall), but a close look at his skills and role for the Dolphins makes him a contender to become a star as a rookie. The 6-foot-2, 228-pound all-purpose back is a rare find at the position as a "big" back with nifty feet, sticky hands and a multi-faceted game. Although Ballage is viewed as more of a finesse player based on his tendency to shake and bake on runs between the tackles as a collegian, he showed more grit and toughness as a runner in January's Reese's Senior Bowl, which suggests he could evolve into more of a power runner a pro. With Ballage already viewed as one of the most versatile running backs in the draft due to his strong hands and superb route-running skills, Adam Gase could elevate the play of QB Ryan Tannehill by leaning on the rookie playmaker each week. -- Bucky Brooks
NEXT UP: THE YEAR OF THE DEFENSIVE LINEMAN
Last year around this time, I dubbed the upcoming college football season the "Year of the Quarterback". Based on a quick first glance of the talent coming up through the college ranks, the 2018 CFB season is going to be the "Year of the Defensive Lineman".
Clemson is loaded with studs up front in Dexter Lawrence, Christian Wilkins and Clelin Ferrell. I had a chance to study Wilkins and Ferrell last year before they surprised everyone by electing to return for another season with the Tigers. The two guys I cannot wait to study this summer are Houston DT Ed Oliver and Ohio State DE Nick Bosa. When you're watching players in this year's draft compete against Houston and Ohio State, you cannot take your eyes off those two players. Oliver has already said he intends to enter the 2019 NFL Draft. I'm still trying to find someone who can block Bosa. I'm looking forward to digging into the tape of these prospects in the weeks to come for my annual First Look series.-- Daniel Jeremiah
Follow Bucky Brooks on Twitter @BuckyBrooks.
