How will the presence of Mike Martz affect the fantasy value of Matt Forte?
Heading into the offseason, Matt Forte was perhaps the biggest fantasy candidate for a bounce-back year in 2010 -- if only because he had the furthest to rebound.
You've heard of first-round value in the middle rounds? Well, Forte provided middle-round value in the first round despite being a consensus top five pick in 2009. With new quarterback Jay Cutler under center, he was limited to 1,400 yards from scrimmage (down from 1,715 in his rookie season) and scored only four touchdowns (down from 12).
Truth be told, Forte was banged up much of the year and didn't have the same burst he did as a rookie. What's more, a very poor performance by the Bears' offensive line only made matters worse.
Now the Bears have hired Mike Martz as their new offensive coordinator, a pin prick to the balloon of Forte's comeback chances, according to many fantasy pundits.
At first glance, Martz and the run are not very compatible. But running backs who can catch the ball have done well in Martz's offenses, especially providing fantasy owners with value in PPR leagues. Forte fits that bill, with 120 receptions in his first two NFL seasons.
Martz's spread offense also gives running backs room to run, and lessens the burden a bit on the offensive line to create holes.
So when you think about it, Martz's hiring doesn't hurt Forte and can only help. Of greater concern to Forte's owners than the presence of Martz, though, is the presence of Chester Taylor. Forte's inability to get the ball into the end zone from in close last year helped prompt the signing of the former Vikings' back.
Like Forte, Taylor is an excellent pass catcher. And unlike Forte in 2009, Taylor is good in short yardage and near the goal line. We don't expect him to take over as the starter, but he figures to eat into Forte's touches enough to limit the fantasy value of both backs.
Bottom line: Martz's presence has little to do with Forte's fantasy value for 2010. Taylor's presence, however, puts a cap on it.
