An 0-3 start in arguably the harshest media market in the country has Joe Judge playing defense entering Week 4.
The Giants' disappointing trio of performances has been riddled with regrettable outcomes. Most notably, Judge has been reluctant to take a risk on fourth down on at least a few occasions, including one that drove analytic-minded onlookers crazy.
Facing fourth-and-4 from the Atlanta 39 late in the third quarter this past Sunday, Judge elected to punt instead of attempting to gain a first down. The Falcons led the Giants 7-6 at the time and punted on their ensuing possession, but the New York would have the ball for just two more possessions -- and reach Atlanta territory just once -- before losing on a game-winning Younghoe Koo field goal.
Judge pushed back against questions regarding his decision.
"I'm not afraid to go for it on fourth down," Judge told reporters Wednesday, via the New York Daily News' Pat Leonard. ... "I don't live in a world of fear."
Edj Sports listed Judge's choice to punt as one of its top five worst coaching decisions of the week, giving the Giants a 5.4 percent less chance to win versus going for it. Next Gen Stats gave the Giants a win probability of 51 percent before the punt, which moved to an even 50-50 following the punt.
"Even a long field goal attempt would have given the Giants 1.2% greater chance to win," Edj Sports wrote in its Week 3 win probability report. "A successful conversion would have increased their win probability to 68.4% from 61.2%, while a failed attempt would have dropped them to 50.1%, still very much in the game. The required success rate on the [fourth-and4-] GO attempt is around just 39%, while a team would be expected to convert this a little over 50% of the time."
Instead of taking the risk, Judge surrendered possession, pointing to field position as being a greater advantage than potentially giving Atlanta the ball back in its own territory, but closer to midfield.
"Analytics is just a tool ... You can look at a stat sheet all you want," Judge said, again via Leonard. "I promise you if Excel was gonna win football games, Bill Gates would be killing it right now. But you've got to take those numbers ... as a tool and go ahead and factor in how your team's playing at the time and how the opponent is as well ... and also the flow of the game."
Judge also has raised some eyebrows with his practice methods, which includes an increased focus on conditioning into the season. This approach is a coach's prerogative, of course, but when you coach a team in New York and open a season with three straight losses -- including at least one to a team the Giants were expected to beat -- and endure injuries to several key players the microscope cannot be avoided.
Judge defended his methods, telling reporters "This isn't an experimental program. It's time-tested," per SNY's Ralph Vacchiano.
Time's test has proven Judge to be a coach unable to produce expected victories, at least to this point in the 2021 season. Sunday's loss was arguably worse than New York's two-score defeat at the hands of the currently undefeated Denver Broncos, and with an incredibly difficult seven-game slate ahead for the Giants -- one that includes meetings with the Saints (2-1), Cowboys (2-1), Rams (3-0), Panthers (3-0), Chiefs (1-2), Raiders (3-0) and Buccaneers (2-1) -- it seems the going is likely to only become more difficult.
Judge could respond to critics by getting more aggressive on fourth down in the weeks ahead, but that won't guarantee the Giants their first win. And with each loss will come more heat for the former Patriots assistant, who remains defiant when pressed on his approach to handling his head coaching duties.
This is the moment when a coach typically gathers his team and takes an "us against the world" approach. The Giants might also see themselves fighting against their coach's own stubbornness.
We'll see which wins out this weekend when the Giants travel to New Orleans to face the Saints, who are returning to the Caesar's Superdome after a month away.
