Curses. Hexes. Jinxes.
Whatever you want to call them, these so-called hoodoos are no doubt in the backs of the minds of superstitious fantasy owners. We've all heard of the "Madden" curse, which seems to have victimized countless athletes who don the cover of the popular video game. There are also other examples, like the Sports Illustrated jinx and the curse of the Super Bowl loser.
But the hex that might hold the most water is called the "Curse of 370."
That's because it's not really a curse at all, but a statistical trend based on the seasonal workload of NFL running backs. I'm going to take this trend one step further, though, because the point of this column is to warn owners about fantasy football's number one runner, DeMarco Murray, as we start to look ahead to the 2015 campaign.
Murray had what I like to call a "magical season." He led all runners in fantasy points and broke Emmitt Smith's franchise record for rushing yards in a single campaign. Heck, he had 605 more rushing yards than the Oakland Raiders, and more than 20 different NFL teams. During the course of the regular season, Murray compiled 392 carries. If you count the postseason, well, that number balloons to 436!
In football terms, that is an absolute boatload. It's more like a ship load. Or the Titanic.
Unfortunately, as you will read, there's a good chance that Murray's production is going to sink just like that fateful ship. Here's a look at every single running back in the Super Bowl era who carried the football at least 390 times in a single season ... and what that running back did the following season.
In most cases, it's not good.
Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs (2006): Johnson was an absolute superstar, rushing for 1,789 yards with a combined 19 touchdowns and 329.90 fantasy points. He also totaled an NFL-record 416 carries that season, which doomed him in 2007. L.J. would miss eight games due to injuries and was a massive disappointment for owners. Based on the totals he scored in his eight games, Johnson would have projected to post 193 fantasy points ... or 136.9 fewer points than he scored in 2006.
Jamal Anderson, Atlanta Falcons (1998): Anderson was a surprise superstar in 1998, posting 1,846 rushing yards, 16 total touchdowns and 308.5 fantasy points on 410 rushing attempts. That made him a first-round selection in most 1999 drafts. Unfortunately, he would see action in less than two games that year before a torn ACL cost him the remainder of the campaign. Anderson would never be the same runner in the stat sheets and retired after the 2001 season due to another ACL tear.
James Wilder, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1984): Had fantasy football been popular in the 1980s, Wilder would have been a first-round choice. He recorded 404 carries, 1,544 rushing yards, 85 receptions, 685 receiving yards and a combined 13 touchdowns in 1984, totaling an impressive 300.90 fantasy points. Wilder did put up good totals the following season (1,300 rushing yards, 10 TDs), but he missed four games and finished with 76.8 fewer fantasy points compared to his solid 1984 totals.
Eric Dickerson, Los Angeles Rams (1986): One of the most graceful and productive runners in NFL history, Dickerson carried the football 404 times, recorded 1,962 scrimmage yards and scored 11 times to finish the 1986 campaign with 268.6 fantasy points. The following season, however, Dickerson missed four games and was limited to just 939 rushing yards and five touchdowns. If you project the totals he put up in his 12 games over a full campaign, he would have ended with 242.5 points.
Eddie George, Tennessee Titans (2000): George was a fantasy stud during his career in Tennessee, but his best season came in 2000 when he had career bests in both rushing yards (1,509) and touchdowns (16). The Ohio State product also produced another personal best ... 403 rushing attempts. While he would start all 16 games the following season, George failed to rush for 1,000 yards for the first time in his pro career. He also finished with 140.4 fewer fantasy points compared to 2000.
Gerald Riggs, Atlanta Falcons (1985): Riggs was a stat-sheet monster for the Falcons in the mid-1980s, but his biggest campaign came in 1985 when he had 397 carries for 1,719 yards with 10 touchdowns and 258.6 fantasy points. The Arizona State product did have a nice 1986 campaign, but all of his numbers were down compared to the previous season. In fact, Riggs had fewer rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns and fantasy points (200.3) despite playing in all 16 games.
Terrell Davis, Denver Broncos (1998): Davis was a superstar when fantasy football's popularity started to surge as he recorded 2,008 rushing yards, 23 total touchdowns and 385.5 fantasy points in 1998. A first-round lock the following year, Davis missed all but four games due to injuries and finished with 35.7 fantasy points. He would never recover from the huge workload he had from 1996-1998, as the Georgia product played in a combined 13 contests over his final two seasons in the NFL.
Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins (2003): Williams was one of the most productive but enigmatic running backs in the NFL during the 2000s. He had a monster campaign in 2003, posting 1,372 rushing yards on 392 carries, 351 receiving yards, 10 total touchdowns and 222.3 fantasy points. Williams would decide to retire and was out of football in 2004, so we'll never know if his huge workload decreased his totals. Based on the rest of our 390-runners, well, I think it would have been likely.
Eric Dickerson, Los Angeles Rams (1983): The Rams weren't timid in using Dickerson as a rookie, as he saw 390 carries in the offense. He made them count too, as he totaled 1,808 rushing yards with a combined 20 touchdowns and 341.2 fantasy points. The SMU product didn't slow down in his sophomore campaign either, rushing for an NFL-record 2,105 rushing yards with 14 touchdowns and 308.4 points. So while he did see a decline compared to 1983, Dickerson was still a productive back.
Barry Foster, Pittsburgh Steelers (1992): Foster had a career season in the stat sheets in 1992, posting 390 carries, 2,034 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns for a total of 259.4 fantasy points. The Arkansas product would miss seven games the following season, however, and was never able to re-claim his status as an elite fantasy runner. Overall, Foster saw a decrease of 118.6 fantasy points in 1993. He would rush for a combined 1,562 yards during his final two seasons combined.
So, what conclusions can we draw from this data?
Well, Murray's chances of missing time and/or seeing his numbers decline in 2015 are high. That's because not one of our runners was better in the stat sheets the season after touting the rock 390 or more times. In fact, just one (Dickerson, 1984) was able to duplicate 90 percent of his previous season's production. Furthermore, Riggs (77 percent) and Wilder (74 percent) were the lone runners other than Dickerson to duplicate better than 70 percent of their previous season's totals.
It's for all of these reasons (including the previous stats) that Murray is almost a lock to be listed on the bust list of countless fantasy football analysts for 2015. It's also the reason you won't see him ranked as the top fantasy running back, and in some cases not even among the top five at his position.
Michael Fabiano is an award-winning fantasy football analyst on NFL.com and NFL Network and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA) Hall of Fame. Have a burning question on anything fantasy related? Tweet it to _**@MichaelFabiano**_ or send a question via **Facebook**!
