Jadeveon Clowney and Khalil Mack were separated by just four picks in the NFL draft. When it came to the recruiting trail, though, the distance almost was immeasurable.
Clowney was the nation's top high school prospect in the 2011 recruiting class. He was a five-star recruit and everyone wanted him. He signed with home-state South Carolina.
Mack? He was the No. 275 player in the 2009 class -- in Florida. Mack was a two-star recruit who had one FBS offer, from Buffalo. And that came about only after then-Buffalo coach Turner Gill hired linebacker coach Robert Wimberly away from FCS Liberty, which had been the only offer Mack had. (Ironically, Wimberly is back at Liberty now, working under Gill, who went from Buffalo to Kansas to Liberty.)
Incredibly, the two players ranked immediately ahead of Mack in Florida in that recruiting class were Detroit Lions cornerback Jonte Green, who was a sixth-round pick out of New Mexico State in the 2013 draft, and Kent State running back Dri Archer, who was drafted in the third round by the Pittsburgh Steelers on Friday. In addition, the No. 280 player in Florida in that class was Kevin Pamphile, who went on to play offensive tackle at Purdue and was a fifth-round pick by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Saturday.
All this goes to show that college football recruiting -- as with any type of talent evaluation -- is a crap shoot and not anything close to resembling a science. If it were a science, no draft pick -- in the NFL, NBA, MLB or the NHL -- ever would be a bust (barring injury, of course).
When it comes to college recruiting, projecting how a 17- or 18-year-old kid will play is tough. Frankly, the same goes for projecting how a 21- or 22-year-old will do when he starts playing for pay. A player can have all the measurables in the world out of high school or out of college, but as all talent evaluators find, you can't truly measure intangibles, and that usually is the No. 1 factor in an athlete's development.
We looked at the high school recruiting rankings for the first-rounders in the 2014 draft, and found that four of the 32 picks were five-star recruits out of high school (joining Clowney were Sammy Watkins, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Dominique Easley). There were 11 four-star prospects, 15 three-star prospects and two two-star prospects (Northern Illinois safety Jimmie Ward joined Mack in that group).
FBS schools sign about 2,600 football players each season. There generally are about 30 five-star prospects annually, meaning less than 1.5 percent of the players signed are five-star guys. Generally, there are about 275 to 300 four-star prospects annually, which means the great bulk of players who sign with colleges each season -- about 85 percent -- are two- or three-star guys.
Here's a look at the 2014 first-rounders. If the player was a consensus top-100 player nationally and/or a top-50 player at his position, it is noted. We used the 247sports.com composite recruiting rankings, which crunches the numbers from the "big four" recruiting sites (247sports.com, rivals.com, scout.com and espn.com) to come up with the overall consensus ranking.
High school: Rock Hill (S.C.) South Pointe
Recruiting ranking: 5-star recruit in 2011 class. Consensus No. 1 national prospect.
High school: Thibodaux (La.) High
Recruiting ranking: 4-star recruit in 2011 class. Consensus No. 12 offensive tackle.
High school: Oviedo (Fla.) High
Recruiting ranking: 3-star recruit in 2010 class. Consensus No. 44 pro-style quarterback.
High school: Fort Myers (Fla.) South Fort Myers
Recruiting ranking: 5-star recruit in 2011 class. Consensus No. 19 player and No. 3 wide receiver.
High school: Fort Pierce (Fla.) Westwood
Recruiting ranking: 2-star recruit in 2009 class.
High school: Missouri City (Texas) Elkins
Recruiting ranking: 4-star recruit in 2010 class. Consensus No. 37 player and No. 5 offensive tackle.
High school: Galveston (Texas) Ball
Recruiting ranking: 3-star prospect in 2011 class.
High school: Huntsville (Texas) High
Recruiting ranking: 3-star prospect in 2010 class. Consensus No. 19 athlete.
High school: Los Angeles Loyola
Recruiting ranking: 4-star recruit in 2010 class. Consensus No. 61 player and No. 5 athlete.
High school: Greensboro (N.C.) Smith
Recruiting ranking: 3-star recruit in 2011 class.
High school: Scottsdale (Ariz.) Chapparal
Recruiting ranking: 4-star recruit in 2009 class. Consensus No. 11 offensive tackle.
High school: New Orleans Isidore Newman School
Recruiting ranking: 4-star recruit in 2011 class. Consensus No. 19 wide receiver.
High school: Pittsburgh Penn Hills
Recruiting ranking: 3-star recruit in 2010 class. Consensus No. 27 defensive tackle.
High school: Baltimore Mount Saint Joseph
Recruiting ranking: 3-star recruit in 2010 class.
High school: Plantation (Fla.) High
Recruiting ranking: 4-star recruit in 2011 class. Consensus No. 7 outside linebacker.
High school: Indianapolis Bishop Chatard
Recruiting ranking: 4-star recruit in 2009 class. Consensus No. 18 offensive tackle.
High school: Theodore (Ala.) High
Recruiting ranking: 4-star recruit in 2010 class. Consensus No. 77 player and No. 3 inside linebacker.
High school: Port St. Joe (Fla.) High
Recruiting ranking: 3-star recruit in 2011 class. Consensus No. 44 safety.
High school: Suwanee (Ga.) North Gwinnett
Recruiting ranking: 4-star recruit in 2010 class. Consensus No. 23 offensive tackle.
High school: Stockton (Calif.) Lincoln
Recruiting ranking: 3-star recruit in 2011 class.
High school: Orlando Dr. Phillips
Recruiting ranking: 5-star recruit in 2011 class. Consensus No. 7 national player and No. 2 safety.
High school: Kerrville (Texas) Tivy
Recruiting ranking: 3-star recruit in 2011 class. Consensus No. 13 dual-threat quarterback.
High school: Odenville (Ala.) St. Clair County
Recruiting ranking: 3-star recruit in 2009 class.
High school: Jeffersonville (Ga.) Twiggs County
Recruiting ranking: 3-star recruit in 2010 class.
Junior college: Santa Rosa (Calif.) JC
Recruiting ranking: 3-star recruit in 2011 class. Consensus No. 47 player and No. 3 cornerback in junior college rankings. Unranked as a high school prospect in 2009 class out of Fairfield (Calif.) Rodriguez.
High school: Columbus (Ga.) Hardaway
Recruiting ranking: 3-star recruit in 2010 class.
High school: Fairfield (Calif.) Vanden
Recruiting ranking: 3-star recruit in 2010 class. Consensus No. 49 safety.
High school: Belle Glade (Fla.) Glades Central
Recruiting ranking: 4-star recruit in 2011 class. Consensus No. 17 wide receiver.
High school: Staten Island (N.Y.) Curtis
Recruiting ranking: 5-star recruit in 2010 class. Consensus No. 4 player and No. 1 defensive tackle.
High school: Mobile (Ala.) Davidson
Recruiting ranking: 2-star recruit in 2010 class.
High school: Suwanee (Ga.) Peachtree Ridge
Recruiting ranking: 3-star recruit in 2010 class.
High school: Miami Northwestern
Recruiting ranking: 4-star recruit in 2011 class. Consensus No. 7 quarterback.
Mike Huguenin can be reached at mike.huguenin@nfl.com. You also can follow him on Twitter @MikeHuguenin.
