Welcome to FedEx Air and Ground fantasy analysis. Each week, we'll highlight some favorable quarterback plays and a few running backs that could prove valuable for fantasy owners based on matchups, projected game flow, and most essentially, talent. With Week 14 in the books and another sample of fantasy points against data to work with, here are a few matchups to exploit in Week 15. These players might just win your week.
Air Analysis:
Kirk Cousins vs. Panthers
When it comes to Kirk Cousins' value as a fantasy quarterback one of his more appealing aspects is Washington's group of talented pass-catchers. Four players on the Redskins have logged 75-plus targets this season, so if Carolina ends up locking up, say, DeSean Jackson, there's enough talent elsewhere between Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed and/or Vernon Davis for Cousins to succeed.
The numbers prove that Washington's receiving corps is one of the most dangerous in the league. Washington ranks first in the league in total yards per game (412.1), passing yards per game (302.8) and yards per play (6.5). Cousins has taken advantage of his surrounding talent with six 300-plus yard games his season and as a team, the Redskins have posted 500-plus yards in three of their last six. Overall they're the No. 2 offense in the NFL.
The matchup on Monday night is about as favorable as it gets too. The Panthers are tied for third in most touchdown passes allowed to opposing quarterbacks, 24. Obviously, Jordan Reed would be a big part of Washington's plan if he was 100 percent healthy, especially in the red zone. But even if he's not, we have seen Vernon Davis fill in nicely for him this year. And Garcon is another big body in red-zone situations.
In a home game under the lights on Monday night, fantasy managers can expect Cousins to deliver.
Ben Roethlisberger at Bengals
Yes, history tells us that Big Ben does not play as well on the road, especially in outdoor games. Last week was an atrocious outing for Roethlisberger in snowy conditions in Buffalo.
But the Steelers are in a must-win situation against a division rival. Even with that dismal performance against the Bills, Big Ben still leads the NFL in touchdown passes of 15-plus air yards this season with 15. He has owned the Bengals in his career with a 20-7 record against them including playoff games. That includes a 37-to-27 touchdown-to-interception ratio and an 87.1 passer rating. Having talented players to throw to helps. Le'Veon Bell, who is second among running backs with 67 receptions, helps Ben rack up yardage by gaining yards after the catch like it's nobody's business. Antonio Brown has scored eight touchdowns on passes that traveled 20-plus air yards this season, most in the NFL.
And then there's tight end Ladarius Green.
The Bengals bleed yards to tight ends, allowing 926 on the season to the position, which is more than any other team. Green could very well be Roethlisberger's secret weapon this week in a game that is bound to be physical. If the quarterback-tight end duo can get into a rhythm against Cincinnati's suspect pass defense, this game could be a huge one for both of them.
Ground Analysis:
Ty Montgomery at Bears
It's officially official. The Packers changed Ty Montgomery's position to running back on their team site. So he's now a running back in the NFL Fantasy game. You're welcome, kids. And in his first game with the "official" running back designation, factors are aligning for Montgomery to have a huge game. James Starks, who was being phased out of the offense anyway, is in the concussion protocol. Christine Michael, as we saw last week, isn't completely familiar with Green Bay's playbook just yet.
Packers coach Mike McCarthy said on Thursday that it's not out of the question for Montgomery to carry the ball 20 times if needed. That would be a refreshing development given the mess that the Packers' backfield has been since Eddie Lacy went out. How much of a mess you ask?
Montgomery leads the Packers' backfield in rushing since Week 7 with 222 yards. (Aaron Rodgers is the second leading rusher with 202 yards in that span) That's 31.7 rush yards per game which is far from ideal. But it's a volume issue, not an efficiency issue. He's averaging 5.7 yards per carry, so if he does indeed see an uptick in attempts, the converted wideout could be extremely productive. We also saw Montgomery score his first rushing touchdown last week. It was a 1-yard goal line run up the middle -- the dude is no pushover.
In terms of the matchup, the Bears have actually been pretty tough against opposing runners. But in a game that the Packers should find themselves leading from early on, they could opt to run more often in the frigid temperatures forecasted for Sunday's game in Chicago. So if you happen to own Montgomery, plug him into your flex spot and fire him up for the dual-threat upside he presents in a Packers' backfield that lacks reliable options, much like your fantasy roster.
Kenneth Farrow vs. Raiders
Obviously, Kenneth Farrow was one of the hottest waiver pickups this week in the wake of Melvin Gordon's injury. Farrow is an undrafted free agent who began the season buried on the Chargers' depth chart. But he's going to start in San Diego's backfield on Sunday against the Raiders and fantasy owners need to find room for him in their lineups.
This season, Gordon has averaged about 24 touches per game. As we saw last week, that same kind of volume is guaranteed to go Farrow's way. He played 55 of 57 snaps after Gordon went out, and logged 22 total touches. Six of those touches were receptions. With that much work as a pass-catcher it's clear that he has solid hands, something he was touted for coming out of college.
Some might fear the whispers of Ronnie Hillman splitting time with Farrow, but that's a longshot. Hillman is now on his third team of the season, and is more likely a depth body than a player who will have a real impact on Sunday.
In terms of the matchup, it's a favorable one as Oakland has struggled against running backs the last few weeks. The Raiders have given up huge games to running backs in three of their last four: LeSean McCoy was the RB7 in Week 13, Jonathan Stewart was the RB5 in Week 12 and Lamar Miller was the RB5 in Week 11. On the season, the Raiders have allowed 120.2 rush yards per game for a 4.7 yards per carry average.
Farrow, in his first career start, should eat on his home turf on Sunday afternoon.
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