We are less than a week away from the start of the NFL Draft and no one is talking about running backs. At least not in the way we're used to hearing. Generally this time of year, we're bombarded with reports of running back visits and pro days and game tape and hand size and preferences between pepperoni and sausage.
This year the only thing we've consistently heard about this running back class is that there might not be any that are selected in the first round for a second straight year. Welcome to 2014.
That seems to be the way of the world for guys who carry the football for a living. Much was made during free agency about the number of running backs who lingered on the market as other positions signed big deals. It's been enough to make a guy think of changing positions.
But there's one place that running backs are still valued -- fantasy football. Enthusiasts still clamor for quality backs in the early rounds and scour the waiver wire for plug-and-play options to get them through the long season. It's with that in mind that we continue our look at draft positions and what they mean for fantasy football success.
Similar to what we saw last week with quarterbacks, there are a lot of quality fantasy backs congregated in the first couple of rounds. Of the 57 players who have landed in the top 25 at the position in the past five seasons, 24 of them were drafted in the first round. And similar to last week, few people are going to be surprised.
But there is plenty more to glean from the numbers Going Deep put together. Some of them probably will surprise you. Like...
Who needs a draft?
OK, maybe that's a bit of hyperbole -- although it could make for an interesting discussion at 345 Park Ave. The point is, the past five seasons have seen a slew of successful backs who never heard their names called on draft day. Seven different undrafted running backs have been top 25 fantasy rushers during that span. As a comparison, seven different second-round backs have landed in the top 25 at their position in that time.
And we're not talking about simply low-end options who just crept onto the bottom of the list. It's a group that includes Joique Bell (17th in 2013) and Danny Woodhead (19th in 2013), two players who consistently belonged in starting lineups by the end of the season.
Even better, three of those players -- Arian Foster, Ryan Grant and Fred Jackson -- ended at least one of the past five seasons in the top 10 at their position. Talk about finding diamonds in the rough. No, seriously, talk about it. I know nothing about diamonds.
Two better than one
There is always going to be extra focus on the players selected on the first day of the draft, but with the way running backs are being evaluated at the NFL level it's probably time to shift our focus to Day Two.
When second-day running backs have succeeded, they've usually done it in a big way. Thirteen rushers who have landed in the top 25 in a given season over the past five years were drafted in either the second or third round. From that group, nine of them -- or 69 percent -- were top 10 fantasy backs. Compare that to first-round backs, where 14 of 24 (58 percent) were among the 10 best.
Admittedly, this is a slightly more difficult metric to calculate since the three-day NFL draft format hasn't been in existence all that long. But the greater point is that as NFL teams wait longer to find running back help, the players who once might have been first-round options are starting to slide. Fantasy owners should adjust their thinking accordingly.
By the way, while first-round running backs are becoming an endangered species, the No. 1 overall rusher is pretty much extinct. Since 1982, only two backs have gone at the very top of the draft -- Bo Jackson (1986) and Ki-Jana Carter (1995). Talk about a disparity in production.
Oh ... and while we're at it, let's recognize how special the 2008 NFL Draft was for fantasy running backs. Each of the first 10 backs selected in that draft finished in the top 20 among fantasy backs at some point in their careers. Only two of those 10 -- Kevin Smith and Steve Slaton -- are out of the league. Wondering who the other were?
It's like the fantasy running back answer to the QB class of 1983. This needs to become a thing. Someone get "A Football Life" on it.
Hit the ground running
It was Jerry Glanville who so cleverly informed us that NFL stands for "not for long." That certainly applies to running backs who can't consistently get it done. It's also the phrase that pays in fantasy football. Which is why the churn rate for NFL running backs is so high.
Dating back to 2003, 223 runners have been drafted. Not nearly that many have made an impact. A total of 47 have eventually found their way into the top 25 fantasy running back rankings. If it's going to happen, it's going to happen quickly.
Nearly 60 percent of those top 25 backs -- 28 to be exact -- reached the top 25 plateau in either their rookie or sophomore seasons. So much has been said and written about receivers blossoming in their third year. Running backs tend to mature a little sooner. The players who have had breakout seasons in Year Three or later usually had extenuating circumstances working in their favor (changing teams, retirement or injury to another player, etc.), but in most cases you'll know almost immediately if a running back is going to be a fantasy contributor.
The good news is that if you're looking for fantasy rookie running back prospects, you'll probably be able to skip Thursday. On Friday, however, we should be off and running.
Marcas Grant is a fantasy editor for NFL.com and a guy who wanted to be Marcus Allen when he grew up. Follow him on Twitter.
