Three weeks ago, I released my Mock 1.0, setting the foundation for how I think the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft might unfold. Since then, pro days have wrapped, draft boards have sharpened and whispers have become more decipherable. With new intel, movement in betting markets and changes in team priorities, it's time for 2.0 -- a more refined forecast as we enter the home stretch of the pre-draft process.
This is now the 21st straight year I've assembled a first-round mock draft. As mentioned in my last first-round simulation, my approach is research-driven: I blend insider reports, team needs, scheme fits, apparent organizational philosophies and betting odds to connect dots and predict what each club's decision makers will do when they're on the clock.
Over the last five years, my mock draft accuracy ranks fifth among 75 national experts, including a second-place finish out of 172 entries in 2024. Back in 2009, I authored the most accurate first-round mock on record. The key to consistency? A system. This year, I'm adding a new mechanism to the process: Draft IQ, a custom-built tool powered by Amazon QuickSight that evaluates every team's projected draft targets, top needs, front office tendencies and so much more. Be sure to follow Draft IQ before and during the draft for a data-driven approach to exploring the selection plans for all 32 teams.
NOTE: Below each pick, I've included implied probabilities (as of 1 p.m. ET on Monday, April 14) for which position that team is most likely to draft first, based on odds pulled from DraftKings. While the favorite isn't always correct, these odds often provide valuable clues for each franchise's potential direction.
All signs point to second-year head coach Brian Callahan and first-year general manager Mike Borgonzi zeroing in on Ward with the first overall pick. Given Callahan’s quotes praising Ward at the recent Annual League Meeting and the team's decision to cancel a private workout with Shedeur Sanders, it would be a surprise if anyone else hears his name called here.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: QB (93%), DL (5%), CB (2%)
The Browns opt to add an elite weapon instead of a quarterback (Shedeur Sanders) or pass rusher (Abdul Carter). GM Andrew Berry recently told reporters he thinks Hunter will play on both sides of the ball at the next level.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: CB (63%), DL (26%), QB (9%)
As former Giants GM Ernie Accorsi once said, “you never, ever have enough pass rushers.” Picking a quarterback at No. 3 still seems like a possibility, even after New York added Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston to a position group that already included Tommy DeVito, but it's worth noting the DraftKings odds for the Giants to draft a QB with their first pick now sit at 12% -- down from 66% in mid-March.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (58%), CB (24%), QB (12%)
With Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter off the board, the Patriots prioritize protecting Drake Maye. Head coach Mike Vrabel is on record stating he views Campbell as an offensive tackle, despite the chatter about his arm length. While Missouri's Armand Membou might have gained momentum after a strong pre-draft process, it feels more likely that Vrabel and GM Eliot Wolf trust their fall evaluations and lean into the tape.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (50%), DL (22%), LB (11%)
After learning under Les Snead with the Rams over the last nine years, first-year Jags GM James Gladstone undoubtedly knows the importance of building through the trenches. If the board falls this way, Graham would be the last of the blue-chip prospects at a premium position. Jacksonville's staff already has a solid read on this game wrecker, thanks to assistant linebackers coach Kevin Wilkins, who coached edge rushers at Michigan last season.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (43%), OL (19%), LB (12%)
While conventional draft wisdom cautions against taking a running back this early, exceptions are made for elite playmakers -- especially when alternatives offer less certainty. It’s not a stretch to envision Jeanty as the highest-graded player available on most teams’ boards (without adjusting for positional value) from this point on in the draft. I believe the odds are even higher that this will be the case on a draft board influenced by Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly, two coaches who’ve consistently built their offenses around dynamic, every-down backs.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: RB (45%), CB (19%), LB (10%)
First-year GM Darren Mougey and head coach Aaron Glenn solidify a spot along the offensive line (right tackle) that has lacked stability for far too long. Membou, who ran a 4.91-second 40-yard dash at 332 pounds, earned a Next Gen Stats athleticism score of 94, the highest mark among this year’s OT prospects. He and 2024 first-rounder Olumuyiwa Fashanu give the Jets two high-upside bookends to protect Justin Fields.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (43%), TE (20%), DL (9%)
Scheme fit is critical when projecting pass rushers, and Walker, who went to high school in Salisbury, North Carolina (less than an hour from Charlotte by car), is tailor-made to serve as a hybrid stand-up edge rusher in Ejiro Evero’s 3-4 base front.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (40%), LB (31%), WR (10%)
There are plenty of signals potentially pointing to this fit, between Coach Prime's recent comments about Shedeur landing in New Orleans and the Saints' emergence as the betting favorite to draft the Colorado product, according to DraftKings. With questions surrounding New Orleans' long-term outlook at quarterback, long-time GM Mickey Loomis and first-year head coach Kellen Moore could view Sanders as a high-upside option to offset the potential loss of Derek Carr, whose 2025 availability is now in doubt thanks to a shoulder injury.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: QB (47%), OL (11%), DL (9%)
After overhauling the offensive line this offseason, GM Ryan Poles and HC Ben Johnson turn their attention to completing a 12-personnel-heavy attack by giving Cole Kmet a running mate at tight end. Warren’s ability to block inline and work the short-to-intermediate areas makes him a natural fit as a security blanket for a young quarterback like Caleb Williams. His versatility and toughness align with the offensive identity Johnson is looking to establish in Chicago.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: RB (23%), OL (21%), DL (21%), TE (17%)
In his first four drafts as GM (2017-2020), John Lynch used three first-round picks on defensive linemen, establishing that front as a foundational pillar of the 49ers’ team-building philosophy. Early-round investments on the unit slowed thereafter -- but now, with aging depth and uncertainty opposite Nick Bosa, that trend could swing back to prominence. Williams fits the prototype San Francisco typically covets: long, explosive and scheme-versatile, while possessing untapped upside.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (31%), CB (23%), DL (21%)
The Cowboys need a true WR2 to complement perennial Pro Bowler CeeDee Lamb, who draws most of the attention from opposing defenses. After three consecutive first-round picks spent in the trenches, Jerry Jones swings big with a polished, above-the-rim playmaker in McMillan, who draws stylistic comparisons to Dez Bryant.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: WR (37%), CB (17%), OL (13%), DL (12%)
Based on Chris Grier's tendency to select first-rounders who play premium positions (i.e., QB, WR, OT, Edge, DT) since taking over as Dolphins GM in 2016, positional value matters in Miami, followed by need. Health and long-speed concerns have dominated Johnson's evaluation, but his instincts, length and ball skills make him a potential steal in the teens.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (30%), CB (25%), DL (19%), S (10%)
If Tyler Warren is available at No. 14, I don’t think GM Chris Ballard hesitates to pick him, but in this mock, the Bears already scooped him up. Colston Loveland could also be an option at tight end, but draftnik Tony Pauline says there was plenty of buzz on the pro-day circuit that Ballard -- who historically prioritizes premium positions in Round 1 -- could target an offensive tackle with Indianapolis' first pick. Medical evaluations will play a huge role in whether the Colts deem Simmons -- coming off a patellar tendon injury -- worthy of a top-15 selection.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: TE (39%), OL (21%), S (12%)
Head coach Raheem Morris was in attendance at Marshall’s pro day to witness Green put on an athletic show. Green’s reported three-cone time (6.85 seconds) would have been the fastest mark by any defensive linemen or linebacker at this year’s combine.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (52%), CB (14%), LB (14%)
Jonathan Gannon was the Eagles' defensive coordinator in 2022, when Philadelphia invested the No. 13 overall pick in similarly freakish nose tackle prospect Jordan Davis. Now entering his third season as HC in Arizona, Gannon could push for Grant, a 6-foot-4, 331-pound force with rare explosiveness and power who can immediately anchor the Cardinals’ defensive interior.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (27%), OL (25%), CB (19%)
Trey Hendrickson, who is coming off back-to-back 17.5-sack seasons, accounted for a staggering 32.2 percent of the Bengals’ total pressures last season, the highest team share in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats. Even if Hendrickson’s trade request ultimately results in a contract extension, Cincinnati needs to diversify its pass-rush arsenal. Stewart brings the prototypical size, length and athleticism that aligns with what the Bengals have historically valued in edge defenders.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (47%), CB (18%), S (11%), OL (10%)
With an elite Next Gen Stats athleticism score of 90 and the ability to play multiple positions, Zabel profiles as a plug-and-play interior lineman who can slide outside if needed.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (40%), WR (16%), TE (12%), S (10%)
Having just signed another one-year deal, 35-year-old Lavonte David could be the perfect mentor to prepare Campbell to eventually take over green-dot responsibilities. Campbell, a true three-down linebacker who recorded five sacks in 2024, offers the kind of blitzing upside that has defined David’s game over the last several seasons.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (30%), LB (27%), CB (16%)
Sean Payton’s ideal running back -- think Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara or Deuce McAllister -- has traditionally featured a blend of size, burst, receiving skills and pass-protection ability. Hampton checks every box, running a 4.46-second 40-yard dash at 221 pounds after showcasing three-down ability at North Carolina.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: RB (33%), WR (21%), DL (12%)
Here, general manager Omar Khan and head coach Mike Tomlin identify a potential long-term successor to Cameron Heyward, who turns 36 in May and carries a $19 million-plus cap hit in each of the next two seasons. Harmon brings the size, strength and length to thrive as a 5-technique in Teryl Austin’s 3-4 front.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (27%), QB (23%), CB (14%), OL (13%)
Jim Harbaugh, who recruited Loveland to Michigan, now reunites with his former tight end in Los Angeles. Loveland’s length, soft hands and large catch radius give Justin Herbert a reliable safety valve, while his athleticism allows him to stretch the seam and create mismatches vertically.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (31%), TE (19%), WR (14%), OL (13%)
GM Brian Gutekunst has a clear track record of targeting elite defensive athletes early in the draft, and Barron fits that profile. A first-team All-American at Texas, Barron earned an overall draft score from Next Gen Stats’ draft model of 89 -- he was one of only five prospects to receive a grade that high.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (39%), CB (27%), OL (17%)
PROJECTED TRADE WITH MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Just like in my first mock, the Chiefs trade up to No. 24 to secure their long-term answer at left tackle, leapfrogging Houston, a team that could also target offensive line help at No. 25. The last time the Chiefs came off a Lombardi Trophy-free season, GM Brett Veach and head coach Andy Reid made a similar move up the board to secure a need and draft cornerback Trent McDuffie.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (39%), DL (31%), CB (8%)
With Stefon Diggs' departure and Tank Dell’s late-season injury creating uncertainty at receiver, the Texans reunite C.J. Stroud with a familiar and trusted target. Egbuka posted 1,151 yards and 10 touchdowns with Stroud in 2022 at Ohio State and profiles as a versatile playmaker who can thrive from the slot or outside. With Houston addressing the left tackle position by signing Cam Robinson in free agency, it can target a skill-position player here and revisit the O-line on Day 2.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: OL (57%), WR (16%), DL (11%)
After the signing of Davante Adams to pair with Puka Nacua (both possession-style receivers with 4.5 to 4.6 speed), the Rams' 11-personnel-heavy offense lacks a true vertical threat to stretch defenses. Golden offers that missing element with his top-end acceleration and explosive playmaking ability. His presence would help open space underneath for Adams, Nacua and Kyren Williams in Sean McVay’s layered passing attack.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: CB (23%), OL (22%), DL (13%)
With Kyle Van Noy entering Year 12 and Odafe Oweh approaching a contract crossroads, edge rusher is a quiet but pressing need in Baltimore. Ezeiruaku fits the Ravens’ prototype: a productive, toolsy pass rusher with elite agility (6.94 three-cone, 4.19 shuttle) and a deep arsenal of moves.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (38%), OL (19%), CB (17%), S (13%)
A naturally powerful guard who excelled on Alabama’s left side, Booker could slide to right guard to fill Kevin Zeitler’s vacancy, keeping Detroit’s O-line among the league’s elite units. His blend of size, strength and technique aligns with Dan Campbell’s gritty, physical brand of football.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (50%), OL (23%), WR (7%)
Dan Quinn has long leaned on hybrid safeties with size and range -- think Kam Chancellor, Keanu Neal, Donovan Wilson and Jeremy Chinn -- to serve as tone-setters in his single-high-heavy scheme. Emmanwori fits that mold, offering versatility as a box defender or big nickel in sub-packages. GM Adam Peters shores up a secondary that allowed a league-worst 146.8 passer rating on throws of 10-plus air yards to the deep middle last season, per Next Gen Stats.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (29%), OL (17%), CB (15%)
Did you know? Bills cornerbacks coach Jahmile Addae was the primary recruiter who brought Starks to Georgia. In Sean McDermott’s cloud-heavy scheme, smart and rangy safety play is just as vital as strong cornerback depth.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: DL (38%), CB (21%), S (17%)
PROJECTED TRADE WITH KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The analytically-minded Kwesi Adofo-Mensah trades down to recoup capital for a front office that currently holds a league-low four picks. Hairston turned heads at the combine with a 4.28 40 while reaching a top speed of 24.25 mph, both the best marks of any prospect in this year’s class, according to Next Gen Stats. His elite speed and upside make him a strong fit in Brian Flores’ aggressive, man-heavy scheme.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: CB (25%), S (25%), OL (17%), DL (17%)
PROJECTED TRADE WITH PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Cleveland jumps one spot from No. 33 to secure the fifth-year option that comes with a first-round choice, subsequently selecting a potential quarterback of the future. While Jimmy Haslam’s recent comments suggest the Browns might pass on an early-round QB, their abundance of draft capital (they currently have five picks in the top 104) makes a dart throw at the position more than feasible. As for the Eagles' next move, even though Howie Roseman is usually open for business, it would be surprising if they traded back again from the top of Day 2.
PROBABILITIES OF FIRST POSITION DRAFTED: N/A
