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Neil Reynolds' Division Weekend Picks

That was not a great showing from me in the opening round of the playoffs as I only went 3-3, correctly picking Baltimore, Buffalo and Philadelphia; while wrongly getting behind the Chargers, Tampa Bay and Minnesota. That has left me with a record of 188-92 on the season. Unlike the playoff teams who performed badly and got knocked out last weekend, my season rolls on. So, here are my selections for the Divisional Round.

Houston Texans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)

This is a re-match of a Week 16 game at Arrowhead that saw the Chiefs beat the Texans 27-19. That was one of 11 one-score contests in which Kansas City emerged victorious in 2024. This time around, the Texans have a puncher's chance because of their defense. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson have combined for 24 ½ sacks on one of the league's best pass rushes. And the secondary which stole four interceptions from Justin Herbert last week has been key. Houston leads the NFL in holding quarterbacks to just a 58 percent completion rate and by producing 33 takeaways. But Kansas City, who had turnover issues earlier this season, have tidied things up. The Chiefs have not given the ball away in seven straight games and Patrick Mahomes has thrown 237 passes since his last interception. This is Mahomes' time to shine. He is in his seventh season as a starter and has reached at least the AFC Championship Game in each of the previous six campaigns. I think he makes it a magnificent seven this weekend and the Chiefs keep their Three-Peat dreams alive.

Neil's Pick… Kansas City Chiefs

Washington Commanders (13-5) at Detroit Lions (15-2)

If ever a team needed a bye week, it was the Lions. They will welcome running back David Montgomery back this Saturday, they could also see guard Kevin Zeitler and cornerback Terrion Arnold return. And Week 18 returnees in linebacker Alex Anzalone and wide receiver Kalif Raymond will be that much fresher. The Lions are on the big stage as big dogs this time around and they have handled that target being on their backs all season long. It's hard to know who to stop in Ben Johnson's attack. Detroit led the NFL with 33 points per game during the regular season and quarterback Jared Goff has never looked better. It's hardly surprising – the Lions have four players with more than 1,000 scrimmage yards in running backs Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs and receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. Washington have gone 32 seasons since last appearing in an NFC Championship Game and are just 60 minutes away. Their remarkable turnaround is a testament to the outstanding form of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. He has laid down a foundation for future success, but I think the feel-good season ends in the Motor City.

Neil's Pick… Detroit

Los Angeles Rams (11-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)

Of all the underdogs this weekend (I don't really believe there is an underdog in the Ravens-Bills game, by the way), I think the Rams have the best chance to spring an upset. Just look at their recent form. Since opening the season with a 1-4 record, Sean McVay's team have gone 10-3. And while just four players remain from the team that won the Super Bowl three years ago, they do still have some key pieces in McVay, quarterback Matthew Stafford and wide receiver Cooper Kupp. And their defense is playing much better than their 26th-in-the-NFL ranking would suggest. The main task will be to shut down Saquon Barkley, who has now rushed for 2,124 yards including the playoffs. He rushed for 255 yards and two touchdowns and posted more than 300 scrimmage yards when these teams met in Week 12 (37-20 win for the Eagles). Philadelphia's passing game is capable but takes a back seat to Barkley. That part of the attack can open up if needed and the Eagles' defense is statistically the best in the league. The Rams will make this interesting, but Philly are strong across the board and will roll on to the NFC title game.

Neil's Pick… Philadelphia

Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at Buffalo Bills (14-4)

It feels like the entire season has been building to this moment. After months of "which of these guys deserves to be MVP?" talk, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will go head-to-head in Buffalo. Both have been spectacular. Lamar accounted for 45 regular season touchdowns and Allen 41. Neither committed more than nine turnovers, either. Both men, though, have yet to play in a Super Bowl and have endured plenty of playoff heartbreak. That makes this a legacy game. These two are too good not to reach the big game, so there is pressure to avoid yet another postseason failure. When these clubs met in Week 4, the Ravens won 35-10 in Baltimore and Derrick Henry rushed for 199 yards. His partnership with Jackson is almost impossible to defend. The pair have combined for 3,103 rushing yards including the playoffs – the most of any duo in NFL history. Can Buffalo stop them? Maybe they can play keep-away with their own balanced attack led by James Cook. The Bills rushed for more than 200 yards in beating Denver last week. There should be points (Buffalo lead the AFC with 30.9 per game and Baltimore are second with 30.5) and there will be moments of magic from both quarterbacks. I expect this to be much closer than the contest in Baltimore – Buffalo are a perfect 9-0 at home, after all. But I'm going for another Ravens win built on the Lamar Jackson-Derrick Henry double act.

Neil's Pick… Baltimore