The regular season is in the books and after going 12-4 last week, I finished the 2024 campaign with a picks record of 185-89. I'm happy with that, for sure! And now comes the playoffs as just 14 teams remain on the road to Super Bowl 59, which will be played in New Orleans on Sunday February 9. Here are my selections for the first round of the postseason.
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) at Houston Texans (10-7)
The Chargers have won three in a row and have been riding Justin Herbert's arm on the way to the playoffs. And while this was a run-first team earlier in the year, that makes them dangerous with Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston a pair of intriguing aerial targets. The Chargers' pass attack against Houston's pass rush and secondary will be one of the key battles in this game. C.J. Stroud has been sacked 52 times (second-most in the NFL), so the Texans may have to get him on the move and also rely on the legs of Joe Mixon. This should be a close game – likely decided by one score – and I'm backing Herbert, supported by head coach Jim Harbaugh, to get a first career playoff win and banish the memories of that blown 27-0 lead to Jacksonville two years ago.
Neil's Pick… LA Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
Pittsburgh's punishment for a four-game losing streak heading into the playoffs (just the third time that has happened in NFL history) is a visit to Baltimore. But is that not what the Steelers would have preferred all along? The form book goes out of the window when these rivals meet. Actually, that's not true – the form book very much favours Pittsburgh, who have won eight of the last 10 games between the two. Pittsburgh won the first meeting this year and Baltimore, the second. But even that was tied 17-17 late in the game. All eyes will be on Lamar Jackson, who has a 2-4 record and a 75.7 quarterback rating in the playoffs; compared to a career rating of 101.9 in the regular season. Lamar has admitted he gets "too antsy" in the playoffs. All that makes this a fascinating game, but I do believe Pittsburgh's offensive issues (they have averaged 14 points per game over the past month) are real and I do know Lamar and Derrick Henry are superstars. So, I'm taking Baltimore at home.
Neil's Pick… Baltimore
Denver Broncos (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (13-4)
This could be a spicy game as Josh Allen dons his Superman cape and begins what he hopes will be a march to Buffalo immortality. If he can deliver a first Super Bowl title to the passionate fans in Western New York, he will never have to buy another drink in the city of Buffalo for the rest of his life. The Bills have the potential league MVP leading the way, but they also have balance. Buffalo scored on 30 passing touchdowns and led the league with 32 rushing touchdowns in 2024. Allen threw for 28 and ran in 12. But this game is not going to be a walk-over. Bo Nix has grown throughout his rookie season and the all-action quarterback will have some strong moments given that is confidence is sky-high right now. This could come down to the battle between Buffalo's offensive line – which has allowed a league-low 14 sacks – and a Denver defense that leads the NFL with 63 sacks. Allen averages a league record 330 offensive yards per game in the playoffs and will power the Bills into the Divisional Round.
Neil's Pick… Buffalo
Green Bay Packers (11-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
The Eagles are a complete team. They have the most dynamic running back in the NFL in Saquon Barkley, the league's leading offensive line and a pair of game-breaking receivers in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. But the key will be how effectively quarterback Jalen Hurts recovers from the concussion that sidelined him in Weeks 17 and 18. Philadelphia also boast the number one defense and that will make life very difficult for Jordan Love as he comes off a Week 18 elbow injury. Love has blown hot and cold at times during this 2024 campaign and I think he will be frustrated when he looks back on his body of work whenever this season ends. With Christian Watson lost to a season-ending knee injury, the shine is coming off these Packers at the wrong time of the year. I don't think they will beat an NFC East opponent on the road in the playoffs for the second year in a row having done a number on Dallas last season.
Neil's Pick… Philadelphia
Washington Commanders (12-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7)
This is going to be a fun quarterback battle between Jayden Daniels, of the Commanders, and Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield. Both quarterbacks have been sensational this season and both have high-end receiving targets. Terry McLaurin topped 1,100 receiving yards and scored on a Washington-club-record 13 touchdown catches. And Mike Evans broke the 1,000-yard barrier for the 11th successive season to start what will be his Hall of Fame career. But both running games should not be overlooked. Washington's ground attack ranks third in the NFL, while Tampa Bay are right behind them in fourth place. Washington's defense is better (the Bucs are wafer thin in the secondary), but I fancy Baker to produce enough magic and points to get the job done at home.
Neil's Pick… Tampa Bay
Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell had a big job on his hands this week. He needed to get the confidence back into his team after Sunday's 31-9 loss in Detroit sent Minnesota tumbling from the potential one seed to number five in the NFC. But this is a 14-win team and squads of that calibre do not become bad overnight. Sam Darnold had a bad game in Week 18 and now has to contend with an underrated Rams' defense. Who knows what Rams offense will show up? There are times when Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp get red hot and other occasions where they look very out of sorts. It won't be easy against Minnesota's defense which happens to be one of the most creative and confusing in the NFL with Brian Flores calling plays for some very versatile weapons. I'm backing the more talented Vikings to get back on track.
Neil's Pick… Minnesota
