NFL Fantasy 2022 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 14: Wide receivers

Wilson has averaged 25 fantasy PPG in the last two games with Mike White as the Jets starting quarterback. In Week 13, when he was also a start, he was targeted 15 times, catching eight for 162 yards. In the last two weeks with White, Wilson has seen 28% of the targets and 47% of the air yards. Wilson has played five games without Zach Wilson this season and has finished as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver in three of them. He is quickly blossoming into a league-winner before our eyes. Now he gets the Bills, who have struggled as of late allowing 43.2 fantasy PPG to receivers in the past month, the second-most in the NFL. Wilson is a must-start option, but he could see a high number of targets again if the Jets are needing to keep up with Josh Allen and the Bills offense. 

Moore has put up good fantasy numbers as long as Baker Mayfield is not the one throwing him the ball. Last season with Sam Darnold he had a 29% target share -- or 9.8 targets per game -- with a 42% air yard share and averaged 14.6 fantasy PPG. In Week 12, I had Moore as a sit in the toughest matchup for a wide receiver, but said if he had a good game then you can trust him moving forward. Well, he had a 35% target share with 146 air yards (76%) and finished with four catches, 103 yards and a touchdown. Good for 20.3 fantasy points. That would qualify as a good game, meaning you can trust Moore moving forward, especially in favorable matchups such as this one, as Seattle has struggled against receivers as of late. In the last month the Seahawks have allowed the seventh-most fantasy PPG to the position (38.8). Moore has found his way back into all starting lineups.  

Kirk was a start in Week 13, and he went on to catch six of eight targets for 104 yards, finishing with more than 16 fantasy points. He was the bright spot for the Jags in a disappointing game against the Lions. Kirk has now scored more than16 fantasy points in three of his last four games. It's also right around what he is averaging per game this season. Kirk sees enough volume to be started weekly, but for some reason he has not earned must-start status with fantasy managers. He should be started this week against the Titans, who have struggled mightily against the pass, but been very stout stopping the run. This could lead the Jags to throw more than normal. The Titans have struggled against receivers allowing the most fantasy PPG on the year (41.95) and in the last month (44.8). They have particularly struggled on deep passes, allowing 958 yards on passes of 20-plus air yards, by far the most in the NFL (no one else over 800). Kirk should be started in this great matchup. His teammate, Zay Jones, who disappointed last week but saw seven targets, remains in play as a sleeper.  

The 49ers took a big blow this past week with Jimmy Garoppolo suffering a season-ending foot injury. Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy stepped in and threw the ball 10 times to Samuel, his most-targeted player of the game (one of Christian McCaffrey’s 10 targets was from Garoppolo). Purdy averaged just 5.3 air yards per pass attempt, showing that the Niners will likely ask him to get rid of the ball quickly and on shorter throws. They will continue to rely on YAC like they did with Garoppolo, if not even more so. That is where Samuel can thrive. He and CMC are the two who should be able to still put up reliable numbers, given that's the style of play that fits them the best. With six teams on bye this week, I would keep rolling with Samuel.

Williams played eight snaps (10.8%) with one target in his Week 13 NFL debut. However, head coach Dan Campbell explained after that it was more about getting Williams into the swing of things, getting him reps and into the game day routine. Campbell said Williams would get more work next week, he also said they would use a similar plan as they did with cornerback Jerry Jacobs, who returned earlier this season from a torn ACL injury. He was limited for two games before he was really set free the last two. The Lions very well could need Williams' big-play ability this week against the Vikings. Minnesota has struggled against receivers, allowing the second-most fantasy PPG to the position (39.6). They have also allowed the second-most yards (765) on passes of at least 20-plus air yards. Understand that there is no floor here, as Williams not scoring a fantasy point is in the realm of possibilities. But there is big upside here for the rookie, and he is a shot worth taking if you are swinging for the fences. D.J. Chark is also in play as a sleeper in this matchup -- he brings a safer floor but less upside.

Davis is such a boom-or-bust option, but lately there has been more bust than boom. He has fewer than 70 yards in five of his last six games and fewer than 40 in four, including his last two. Also, 89% of his yards have come on passes of at least 10 air yards. The Jets have allowed the fifth-fewest yards in the NFL on those passes, which includes a passer rating of just 67.4, the third-lowest in the NFL. Davis was limited to two catches for 33 yards in his first matchup against the Jets' tough secondary. The Jets have also limited receivers to the third-fewest fantasy PPG (27.9). Davis always has the potential to blow up, it really comes down to if he catches a long ball or not. His odds of doing so are greatly diminished this week. Davis is not a must-sit player, especially with six teams on bye, but if you have options, it is fine to get away from him this week.

Smith has shown that he has a high ceiling, the issue is the floor is low. He scored more than 21 fantasy points last week, but was below 14 points in the five prior games, and in single digits in three of them. Plus, 43% of his yards have come on passes of at least 10 air yards. The Giants have allowed the fifth-fewest yards and a rating of just 47.2 on passes of 20-plus air yards. They are in the bottom 12 in yards on passes of at least 10 air yards. Plus, they have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy PPG to WRs (30.7). Smith is not a must-sit by any stretch, but if you have another option this week, you can get away.  

Johnson saw 11 targets in Week 13 and turned them into just 11 fantasy points. The sad part is that ties his high in a game started by Kenny Pickett. Despite having 105 targets this season, Johnson still has not scored a touchdown. It’s just not happening for Johnson with the rookie signal-caller, despite the volume. The floor is single digits and the ceiling with Pickett so far is 11 fantasy points. I would get away from him in what could be an ugly divisional game against a struggling Ravens offense.

Slayton deserves much more credit than he has received for his efforts this season. He has also been a much more reliable fantasy option than I think many realize. But this is not the week to trust him. The Eagles have arguably the best secondary in football, as each of their top two corners rank in the bottom three in passer rating when targeted. They have also allowed the third-fewest yards on passes of at least 10 plus air yards. That includes a passer rating of just 41.5 -- no other team is even below 58. This doesn’t bode well for Slayton, as half of his targets this season are at least 10 air yards. Philly also allows just 28.5 fantasy PPG to receivers, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. I want him on my roster, but not my starting lineup this week.