NFL Fantasy 2022 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 15: Wide receivers

Wilson is coming off his worst game with Mike White as the Jets' starter, scoring just 13.8 fantasy points. If that is the floor, Wilson is easily a must-start option. And honestly, that’s what he has become. In those three games, he has 30 targets (24 percent share) while no one else on the Jets has more than 18. He also has 39 percent of the Jets' air yards -- or 366 -- while no one else on the team even has 200. He is the Jets' passing attack and that bodes well for him this week against the Lions who have been torched by receivers. The Lions have allowed 40.8 fantasy PPG to receivers, the third-most in the NFL. Plus, they have allowed the most yards and touchdowns to receivers in the slot, which is where Wilson has run over a quarter of his routes the last three weeks. Detroit has also allowed the most yards on passes of at least 10 air yards, so Wilson should have the chance to put points up in chunks. He is a must-start option this week.

Williams is battling through an ankle injury, but he was still plenty productive last week against the Dolphins, catching all six of his targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. That was good for nearly 24 fantasy points and a top-five wide receiver finish on the week. Williams has now topped 19 fantasy points in four of his last five healthy games. The big play ability is far too high both as a field-stretcher and red zone presence to get away from. Speaking of big plays, there may not be a better matchup for Williams’ ability than the Titans. Not only have they allowed the most fantasy PPG to receivers at 41.9 per game, but they have also allowed by far the most yards and touchdowns and highest passer rating on passes of 20-plus air yards. Williams brings a super high ceiling in this one. He is a must-start option in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.

Pittman is coming off his worst game of the season, in which the Colts were embarrassed by the Cowboys on national TV before their bye. But it was not so much a Pittman problem as it was a problem with the Colts getting abused by the Cowboys defense. In games started by Ryan this season, Pittman is averaging 14.4 fantasy PPG with a 23 percent target share and 25 percent air yard share. That is a player who you should want to start in fantasy. Plus, the matchup is way too good to get away from this week. The Vikings have issued the second-most fantasy PPG to receivers this season (41.6). The entire Lions receivers room torched them just last week. Plus, they have really struggled on the deep ball, giving up the second-most yards on passes of both at least 10 and 20 air yards. Pittman should have a bounce-back game, and you want him in your lineup this Saturday.

Last week I had Smith as a sit because the Giants were tough on passes of 10-plus air yards. Well, Jalen Hurts and Co. proved that it really doesn’t matter. They can get the job done. Smith, who has seen close to half his yards come on passes of 10-plus air yards (45 percent), should fare well this week against the Bears. On the season Chicago has allowed a passer rating of 112.0 on those passes, the fourth-highest in the NFL. The only concern here for Smith is that the Eagles just run the ball down the Bears' throat, which is certainly in the range of possibilities. However, the upside is likely too good for you to get away from against a very banged-up Bears secondary. Smith brings a high ceiling in this favorable matchup.  

Jones has averaged 10.8 targets per game in the past month -- that ranks inside the top four at the receiver position. He did have one dud in there where drops were an issue, but in the other three, he scored at least 14.8 fantasy points, twice topping 21. The volume and fantasy production are both too good to get rid of, even in a tough matchup on paper against the Cowboys. This is also a game where the Jags could be chasing points and have to throw the ball. Continue to ride the hot hand with Jones this week.

Davis was once viewed as a boom-or-bust option, but lately it's been mostly bust. Since the Bills' Week 7 bye, Davis is averaging just 9.6 fantasy PPG, while only twice topping double figures and once topping 15. There have been murmurs that his ankle injury is hampering his play, but whatever the case may be, you cannot trust him right now, especially against Miami, who has done a nice job of limiting production on passes of over 10 air yards. On the season the Dolphins have allowed a passer rating of just 77.2 on those passes, the eighth-lowest in the NFL. So far this season, 88 percent of Davis’ yards have come on those passes. Plus, bad weather is in the forecast for this Saturday matchup. I would avoid Davis if possible. 

Lazard was a reliable fantasy receiver earlier this season, but that all changed when Christian Watson broke out. Since then, Lazard is averaging just 3.8 catches, 48.3 yards and 8.6 fantasy points per game. His high game in that stretch is just 11.7 fantasy points. He was productive early on largely because he was Aaron Rodgers’ go-to guy in the red zone, but Watson even stole that role. The Rams are not a matchup to avoid in fantasy, but given how much the Packers like to run the ball and how low both the floor and ceiling has been since Watson broke out; I would get away from Lazard.

Thielen’s last month is basically his season in a nutshell. He has twice scored under five fantasy points and twice topped 19 fantasy points. It makes him a usable fantasy asset in the right matchup after looking more like waiver wire fodder early on. However, this is not the right matchup. The Colts have allowed the fewest fantasy PPG to receivers (26.5). This also has the potential to be a low-scoring game. With it being the fantasy playoffs, the matchup is far too big to play a boom-or-bust receiver with a low floor in the most difficult matchup, especially since you should have options with no teams on bye.

London has had better results as of late, scoring double figures in two of his last four games. The only issue is those are his only games with over 10 fantasy points since Week 4. The floor is less than five, if not lower. The Saints have ranked middle of the pack against receivers, but they are a tough defense for rookie Desmond Ridder to make his NFL debut against. Ridder can mean good things for London the rest of the season and in 2023, but the first week of the fantasy playoffs is not the time to find out. Go with another option this week.