You have lineup questions, we have lineup answers -- at least we hope so. Start 'Em, Sit 'Em is here to help fantasy managers make difficult roster decisions. And you know what is a good move? Starting Justin Jefferson. But that's too obvious, so you won't see such simple analysis here. Instead, we're exploring more debatable situations. And if you can't find a player you are looking for, please check out the latest NFL Fantasy lineup rankings. Unless otherwise noted, all stats come from NFL Pro, Next Gen Stats or NFL Research.
Start 'Em
Thomas is coming off his lowest yardage total of the season, but that doesn’t mean you should shy away from him in fantasy. And while I don’t love the decrease in targets over the last two games, Thomas has topped 15 fantasy points in four of the past six contests -- clearing 21 points in three of them. That is a ceiling worth sticking with. This could be an upside week for Thomas: The Vikings play zone at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL, and the rookie wideout boasts the third-most yards vs. zone this season. Minnesota has also allowed the fourth-most yards to WRs. Start Thomas.
In two games with Russell Wilson under center, Pickens has averaged 92.5 receiving yards and 16.8 fantasy points per game. It’s a small sample size, but he has shown to have a safe floor and high ceiling with Wilson at QB. The veteran signal-caller is a better fit than Justin Fields for a receiver who thrives on deep passes. The Steelers could be chasing points this week against the Commanders, leading them to throw more. Washington plays man coverage at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL, while Pickens ranks in the top 12 in yards against man. Even though Washington has been better against receivers of late, keep riding with Pickens.
Downs has had nine targets in two straight games and at least nine in five of his last six contests. That sort of volume keeps him in play weekly. In that six-game span, Downs is averaging 15.5 fantasy PPG. Three times, he has topped 19, and he’s scored 12 or more in all five games with nine-plus targets. That is good news, as the Colts could be chasing points and forced to throw against the Bills. Plus, Buffalo has allowed the sixth-most yards to slot receivers this season and second-most since Week 5. Downs is a strong start this week.
The Bills have used rookie Keon Coleman as their man coverage beater and Shakir as the zone breaker. (Keep an eye on the role Amari Cooper takes in the coming weeks.) Shakir has double the targets of any other receiver against zone coverage this season. That’s huge for Shakir owners this week, as the Colts have used zone coverage on 86 percent of plays this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Indy also ranks in the top 10 in yards allowed to receivers. Given the matchup and Shakir’s safe floor within Buffalo's offense, he is in play this week.
Mooney has been awesome for fantasy purposes, averaging 15.9 fantasy PPG and 72 yards per game since Week 2. He sees a steady stream of volume in Atlanta's offense, and that could potentially increase if Drake London (hip) is limited or out this week against the Saints. Since Week 5, New Orleans has allowed the fourth-most yards and 11th-most fantasy points per game to receivers. Mooney had a floor game against the Saints in Week 4, but that can certainly change in the second go around. Given the safe floor and volume, Mooney remains in play.
I went back and forth between Ridley and Xavier Legette here, but Legette feels more like a sleeper than a straight start. Ridley continues to be heavily targeted in Tennessee's offense. He has averaged 10 targets per game in the last four games with at least eight in each. Ridley had a safe performance (five catches for 73 yards) in last week’s win over the Patriots and a huge outing (10 catches for 143 yards) in the loss to the Lions. The Chargers are a tough matchup who play zone at the third-highest rate in the NFL. Ridley leads the Titans in targets and yards against zone coverage -- and it’s not all that close. Due to the volume and recent production, Ridley remains in play.
Sit 'Em
Oof. This one is tough. Despite great expectations entering the NFL, the No. 4 overall pick has averaged just 5.5 targets per game over the last six weeks. He has shown to have a high ceiling, but he has scored fewer than six fantasy points in four of the last five games. Not all of that is on him, though. Of the 41 QBs to throw at least 50 passes out wide this season, Kyler Murray ranks 37th in completion percentage, per Next Gen Stats. Harrison has lined up out wide on 79 percent of his snaps. This also means the rookie will see a healthy dose of Jets cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed this week. Plus, New York has allowed the fewest fantasy PPG to receivers -- making this a matchup to avoid.
It has been a rough season for Waddle, who has not topped 50 yards or double-digit fantasy points in a game since Week 1. He has only one game this season with more than six targets. He has just two targets in two of his last three games, with a touchdown salvaging his performance (a bit) last week. Waddle was banged up in Week 9; while he stayed in, it is something to monitor. Now he faces a Rams defense that has been better against receivers of late. Since Week 5, Los Angeles has allowed a 79.7 passer rating and 54.9 percent completion percentage to WRs. Given Waddle’s lack of volume and production, he can hit the bench until those things change.
Sutton is coming off two big performances and is finally starting to look like an option we can trust as Bo Nix’s top target. Against most opponents, he will be in play. The Chiefs are not "most opponents," though. They have allowed the fewest yards and seventh-fewest fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season. Sutton has been held to fewer than 50 yards in five straight games against the Chiefs. Get away from this matchup.
Johnson played 30 percent of the snaps in his Ravens debut last week, but did not have a target. Playing around a third of the snaps is what we saw happen with Amari Cooper and DeAndre Hopkins in their first games after being traded midweek. What works against Johnson this week? This game will be played on a short week, so it’s possible we’ll see him in a limited role once again. He would have to jump Rashod Bateman to play in two-receiver sets. Even if he does, Lamar Jackson’s top target will remain Zay Flowers, and Mark Andrews will get his fair share of balls, too. Take a wait-and-see approach until Johnson is fully acclimated and productive in Baltimore's offense.
Worthy has been very up and down this season. Against the Bucs on Monday night, he finished with -10 rushing yards on two carries, with zero catches on two targets. He had been seeing more volume prior to DeAndre Hopkins getting more involved. Now Worthy gets a tough matchup against the Broncos, who had been shutting down receivers before running into the buzzsaw that is the Ravens. Denver also plays man coverage at the third-highest rate, and Worthy has struggled against man. Patrick Mahomes has a 53.9 passer rating when targeting Worthy in man coverage; Worthy has just a 53 percent catch rate against man. Get away from the rookie this week.
